MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, September 20.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:40 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardians
Athletics starting pitcher Jack Perkins has struggled in a big way this season, posting a 6.14 ERA while allowing 1.6 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that is last in the league in ERA, supplying a 5.81 ERA since July 1. Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams owns a 3.78 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings allowed, but is also getting 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings and has the support of a lineup that since August 1 ranks eighth in scoring with over 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Guardians Run Line -1.5 +105 and Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -1.5 -114 and Total 7.7
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
While Red Sox starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval has a 4.99 ERA this season, his 3.86 fielding independent indicates he has pitched much better than that, with 0.9 home runs and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Griffin Jax has a 3.40 ERA as a starting pitcher this season with 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed and is supported by a Rays bullpen that since July 1 is ninth in ERA at 3.63, while the Red Sox are number one with a 2.78 bullpen ERA in that span.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Rays Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
2:10 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Tigers starting pitcher Troy Melton has seen regression come his way recently, as he overall has a 2.52 ERA this season with a 4.08 fielding independent, 7.3 strikeouts, and 2.8 walks per nine innings. He has allowed at least three runs in five of his past six starts. White Sox starting pitcher David Martin owns a 3.96 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings allowed, but his ERA is 3.09 at home compared to 4.68 on the road.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline -118
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -132
4:07 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels
Twins starting pitcher Dean Kremer has had a difficult season, allowing two home runs and three walks per nine innings for a 5.35 ERA, but in his past eight starts since joining the Twins is allowing only 1.1 home runs per nine innings. He faces an Angels lineup that is last in scoring with less than 3.6 runs per game. The Angels’ starting pitcher, Ryan Johnson, has allowed three runs or fewer in eight straight starts, but this appears to be built on sand, as he overall for the season has a 4.88 ERA with a 5.60 fielding independent, allowing 1.8 home runs and three walks per nine innings.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Twins -133
4:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcántara is coming off one of the strangest stretches of his career, as he threw 101 pitches in his last start on Monday, September 14, but then had to serve as the closer on Wednesday. Overall this season, he owns a 3.84 ERA with a career-low 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and on the road that goes up to a 4.41 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed. Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler overall owns a 4.58 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings allowed, but has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his past 11 starts.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -134 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -168 and Total 8.8
