NFL picks for Week 14 from Matt Youmans

December 9, 2023

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NFL best bets and predictions Week 14

While it’s seldom wise to believe the hype, most people tend to buy what the media is selling. The NFL quarterback attracting the most media hype this week must be Jordan Love of the Packers, who are back from the dead.

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Seven games into the season, Green Bay was saddled with a 2-5 record and Love was getting trashed by critics. He had 11 touchdown passes and eight interceptions, and the mistakes were costly. Love was being dismissed by most as a potential franchise quarterback.

Suddenly, after he outdueled Patrick Mahomes in the Packers’ 27-19 upset of the Chiefs on Sunday night, Love is being hailed as the next great one in Green Bay, following in the footsteps of Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre. The Packers are 4-1 in their past five games, with Love passing for 11 touchdowns with only two interceptions.

I’m a proponent of Love and the Packers and have touted them since early in the offseason. I bet Green Bay to win the NFC North (which is unlikely to happen) and played Over its win total of 7.5 (which is now likely to happen). Still, the recent hype is a little over the top.

The Packers are coming off consecutive victories over division leaders, beginning with an upset of Detroit on Thanksgiving, and heading to New York to face the Giants (4-8) on Monday night. A team that has been surprisingly good in the underdog role is suddenly a 6.5-point road favorite, and that type of role reversal is rarely a good thing for the favorite.

The Giants have been embarrassingly bad at times and have lost eight straight Monday Night Football games. But there are a few positives for New York. The defense is showing improvement, allowing a total of 26 points during a two-game win streak. Young quarterback Tommy DeVito has not been terrible (seven touchdown passes, three interceptions). Running back Saquon Barkley is healthy and productive.

Love and the Packers are due to hit a speed bump on the road. It’s wise to wait for +7, but I expect a tight game and will be on the Giants’ side in this situation.

Pick: Giants +6.5

My five sides went 2-3 last week — with two of the losses by one point each and the other loss in overtime — putting the season record in this column at 31-30-4. Four more plays for Week 14 (home team in CAPS):

BEARS (+3.5) over Lions

Three weeks ago, the Bears held a 12-point lead with four minutes remaining in Detroit and blew it. The Lions’ play has declined on both sides of the ball in the past three games, with quarterback Jared Goff making more mistakes. Chicago seems to be trending in the right direction, though it’s never easy to trust coach Matt Eberflus and quarterback Justin Fields.

BENGALS (-2) over Colts

Is Cincinnati quarterback Jake Browning headed for regression? That’s the fear here. Browning resembled Joe Burrow on Monday in Jacksonville, completing 32 of 37 passes for 354 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals (6-6) are still alive and have winnable games remaining against the Vikings, Steelers and Browns. Indianapolis was lucky to escape with an overtime win at Tennessee a week ago. This line opened Colts -1, and the flip of favorites is a negative factor, but Browning and the Bengals are still worth a shot.

RAIDERS (+3) over Vikings

Las Vegas is 2-2 with Antonio Pierce as interim coach, and Pierce has the team playing with more confidence and swagger. It’s important for defensive end Maxx Crosby, who’s questionable with a knee injury, to play because Minnesota quarterback Joshua Dobbs has been riddled by turnovers. Dobbs threw four interceptions in a 12-10 loss to the Bears in Week 12. The Vikings will get a boost from the return of wide receiver Justin Jefferson.

CHIEFS (Pick) over Bills

Buffalo (6-6) desperately needs this win, but that’s the case because the Bills keep finding ways to lose close games, with all of their losses coming by six points or fewer. Kansas City’s third-ranking scoring defense (17.3 ppg) should be capable of containing Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen. I did not initially intend to bet this side, but the Chiefs are off a loss and offered at a cheap price on their home field, so I’m buying low on Mahomes.

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