NFL picks for Week 16 from Matt Youmans

December 23, 2023

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NFL best bets and predictions Week 16

It’s realistic to call Ravens-49ers a potential Super Bowl preview, and it’s probably true to say the quarterback who wins the game will be this season’s MVP. The stakes are high, so the NFL is getting it right on Christmas night by featuring the best possible matchup.

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Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson is the underdog, which is the way he wants it. Jackson, who’s an impressive 9-4 straight up and 11-2 against the spread as a ‘dog, said this to the media this week: “I believe we play better when we’re doubted, and people aren’t choosing us to win the game. I don’t want them to pick us. I like being the underdog.”

It’s tough to bet on any team to beat San Francisco, which has won six in a row by an average margin of 18.8 points.

DraftKings lists Brock Purdy as the odds-on favorite (-225) to win MVP. Purdy is a great story, the final pick of the 2022 draft rising to the top of the charts. Jackson is the second choice (+450), and 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is third on the board (+800). McCaffrey leads the league in rushing yards with 1,292, and Purdy has better numbers across the board (69.8% completions, 3,795 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, seven interceptions) than the most talented quarterback on the planet, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes.

During their winning streak, the 49ers have feasted on mediocre and weak defenses that all rank outside of the league’s top 10 in scoring. The Ravens rank No. 1 by allowing 16.1 ppg.

Baltimore’s defense is capable of containing San Francisco’s offensive versatility, and Jackson is one of the few dual-threat quarterbacks who can stress the 49ers’ defense. Jackson, who’s 5-1 on the road this season, has accounted for 3,846 total yards and 22 touchdowns.

In a meeting of 11-3 teams, few pundits are picking the Ravens to win the game. I’m not picking the upset, either, but I admire Jackson’s underdog mentality and expect this game to live up to the hype. I’ll take the inflated number.

Pick: Ravens +6.5

My five sides went 2-3 last week to put the season record in this column at 36-34-5. Four more plays for Week 16 (home team in CAPS):

STEELERS (+3) over Bengals

The walls are closing in on Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin, who’s 7-7 after consecutive losses to the Cardinals, Patriots and Colts. Tomlin, a home favorite against Arizona and New England, is much more dangerous as a home ‘dog. His quarterback switch from Mitch Trubisky to Mason Rudolph should prove to be a good move. The Steelers have injury issues in their defensive secondary, but Cincinnati’s offense was dealt a setback this week when receiver Ja’Marr Chase was ruled out with a shoulder injury.

CHARGERS (+12.5) over Bills

While betting on a team the week after a coaching change is a strong angle, nothing is a certainty with the flaky Chargers. Betting on a team the week after it was humiliated is typically another good angle, and the Chargers are reeling from a 63-21 loss in Las Vegas. It’s guesswork to predict if the home ‘dog will show up and play with pride Saturday night in LA. When the opposing quarterbacks are Easton Stick and Josh Allen, it looks too easy to lay it with Buffalo. I’m guessing this could be a flat spot for the Bills, who are traveling to the West Coast after big victories over the Cowboys and Chiefs.

DOLPHINS (-1.5) over Cowboys

The Dallas defense can be dissected on the ground, and the Bills displayed that by rushing for 266 yards in a 31-10 blowout a week ago. Miami has the league’s No. 4 rushing offense (139.6 ypg), and Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are healthy and ready to roll. It would obviously help a lot if receiver Tyreek Hill returns from injury. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have been at their worst in big games away from home, which was one reason I faded them last week and will do so again. Dallas is 7-0 on its home field, winning by an average of 24.4 points and 3-4 on the road with no victories over opponents with a winning record.

Patriots (+7.5) over BRONCOS

It has not paid off to take points with Bill Belichick, who’s 3-11 ATS, and that has been my most costly mistake this season. So why do it again? The line is inflated to the point where I can’t refuse. The total in the Sunday night game is 35, and it will be cold and possibly snowing in Denver. New England has the league’s No. 2 run defense (84.9 YPG). The Broncos are 2-10-1 ATS as favorites with Russell Wilson at quarterback.

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