NFL Player Props
With one game in the books and four teams on a bye, we have 13 games worth of props to examine here in Week 8. It is surprising how tame the weather is going to be around the country with November here, as the only hotspots are really in Florida, as rain and wind are in the mix for Tampa, Jacksonville, and Miami. Otherwise, there won’t be a lot of wind or anything else to alter the gameplans of the coaches.
This may seem like an insulting comment to make, but keep in mind that both sides of a prop line are available to play. A lot of bettors only take the Over to root for what they want to happen. Sometimes the Under is going to be a much more valuable position to take, especially when thinking about a player who may already be going into a game hobbled.
VSiN Pro Subscribers have access to our OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections — I’ve looked through those and also looked over what the sportsbooks have to offer to find some of my favorite props for Week 8.
I’ve got my First Touchdown Scorer picks here.
As always, shop around for these Week 8 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 2:50 p.m. PT on Friday, October 30 and are from DraftKings.
Here are my favorite Week 8 NFL Player Prop Bets:
Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (+104)
The Colts already came into the week 31st in yards per carry allowed, a number that probably won’t get better without DeForest Buckner. Also, trading away Quenton Nelson could have some ramifications for the defense as well, as the offense may have a tougher time staying on the field.
There are a few things in Tuten’s favor here. The first is the weather. With rain, wind, and a poor run defense, Liam Coen will probably be excited about trying to run the rock here. Second, the projected game state with a double-digit favorite should also be conducive to the opportunity for some extra carries. Third, the Jaguars have only averaged 112.8 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. Coming off of the bye, I have to think that Coen and his coaches have considered more ways to get the ground game involved.
After all, per RBSDM, this running game is eighth in Rush Success Rate and ninth in Rush EPA. Given that this is a top-five team in Dropback EPA, Coen’s focus was likely looking for creative ways to get more out of the backs, including Tuten.
OptaAI projects Tuten for 13.84 carries.
Jameson Williams (DET) Under 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Williams has actually gone Under this total in four of six games thus far, though he has gone Over in two of the last three. But he’s averaging an average depth of target of 14.7 yards on his 38 targets with 23 catches. He also has five of the team’s eight drops.
This week, the Lions draw the Vikings and Brian Flores’ blitz-happy defense. Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Vikings have applied pressure on 35.7% of opponents’ dropbacks and have blitzed 140 times with a 67.6% Blitz%. Only the Seahawks have allowed fewer air yards and only the Panthers have allowed fewer yards after the catch.
In six career games against the Vikings, Williams has had 41, 43, -4, 34, 66, and 37 receiving yards. In the one game where he went Over, he had a 90.6% snap share, which was 14th-highest in his career. I’m not sure we’ll see that heavy of a workload here.
OptaAI projects Williams for 43.12 receiving yards.
Jonah Coleman (DEN) Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Coleman had nine carries for 54 yards last week against the Cardinals, as he saw game action for the first time in over a month. He had 10 carries for 39 yards against the Jaguars earlier in the year. The Broncos never trailed in last week’s game, though, and that may not be the case this week.
Coleman did heavily out-snap J.K. Dobbins 30-14, as even RJ Harvey had more snaps than Dobbins. I think we’ll see more of the veteran here, though. The Chiefs are third in Rush Success Rate against and sixth in Rush EPA. Conversely, the Cardinals are 20th in Rush Success Rate against.
Maybe Coleman has just gotten more favor from Sean Payton with some good practice days, as the 5-foot-8 runner out of Washington was taken in the fourth round of the April draft. It’s easy to put him out there against Arizona. It’s not as easy to put him out there against KC.
OptaAI projects Coleman for 9.89 rushing yards, but he has only really played two games.
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