Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
These teams meet for the third time this season when they kick off on Saturday in Santa Clara. San Francisco swept the regular-season series, winning 27-7 and 21-13. Seattle scored only one offensive touchdown against the 49ers in the first two meetings, the other coming via special teams.
Some historical notes from @Random49ers on Twitter. Since the AFL-NFL merger, there have been 24 instances in which a team had a chance to go 3-0 versus an opponent in a season. Of those 24 occasions, 18 times has the home team been trying to pull off the hat trick. Home teams are 12-6 SU in those 18 games. The home team was favored in each of those, as the 49ers are on Saturday.
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The Seahawks were very fortunate to get into the dance, having lost five of their last seven games before squeaking past a beat-up Rams team in overtime, 19-16, on Sunday. Geno Smith was red hot to begin the season but has thrown seven interceptions in his last seven games.
Let’s look at some of the stats and how these teams match up. San Francisco is sixth in third-down conversion percentage on offense and the Seahawks are 27th in third-down defense. The Niners are fourth in the league in yards per play on offense. Seattle is 21st in yards per play allowed on defense. The 49ers rank 10th in sacks per game of opposing quarterbacks. Seattle’s offense ranks 22nd in sacks allowed. The Niners are third in yards per point on offense. The Seahawks rank 20th in yards per point on defense. San Francisco is fourth in yards per pass attempt. The Seattle defense is 16th in yards per pass attempt allowed.
On Sunday, during the Pro Football Blitz on VSiN, I guessed that this line would be 9.5 or 10 in favor of San Francisco. My initial number crunch spits out 49ers -8.5. I don’t think the Seahawks have much of a chance to win this game outright. They are simply outmanned. However, I do believe there is a good chance they can stay within 10 points, where the line is currently. This remains a division game, even though it comes in the postseason. Pete Carroll has been able to figure out the 49ers for more than a decade. Kyle Shanahan is 4-8 SU against Carroll, who is 17-6 SU against the 49ers as head coach of the Seahawks. I likely won’t make a play on this game, but if I do, I’m leaning toward taking nothing less than double digits with Seattle.
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