NFL Sleeper Teams
The 2024 Commanders flipped the script in the NFC East, going from basement-dwellers to division champs. The leap was powered by a coaching overhaul, the electric debut of rookie Jayden Daniels and a few strategic offseason upgrades. The Broncos also made a sizable jump, going 10-7 with Sean Payton finding his quarterback in rookie Bo Nix, along with the front office providing the legendary head coach with some real talent on both sides of the ball.
I’m not sure the same exact formula is out there this year. There won’t be many rookies starting games, and the ones that will are in bad situations. However, I do see some teams that will make similarly massive turnarounds from 2024 to 2025. And if you’re looking to bet futures this summer, identifying which teams can do so should be a profitable exercise — whether that’s for win totals, alternate win totals or bolder futures with bigger payouts.
Here are some candidates for NFL sleeper teams, excluding teams like the 49ers who were ravaged by injuries last season.
Chicago Bears
The Bears were pegged for a breakout year in 2024, but they stumbled out the gates and finished 5-12. Caleb Williams played like a rookie and head coach Matt Eberflus, along with other key members of his staff, was dismissed midseason. Overall, it was a disappointing year for a team that had high hopes for the No. 1 pick, especially considering the type of talent he was surrounded by.
The good news for Chicago is that the team’s struggles allowed the franchise to grab one of the hottest available coaches in years: Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator of the Lions. From 2022 to 2024, Johnson oversaw some of the best offenses in football. In fact, over that three-year stretch, the Lions had an EPA per play of 0.095, which was the third-highest mark in the NFL. Last year, nobody in the league averaged more points per game than the 33.2 that Detroit put up.
Johnson’s obsession with detail, in addition to his creativity as a play caller, should unlock Williams, and that’s especially true with the Bears having made some improvements along the offensive line. The arrival of All-Pro guard Joe Thuney should stabilize a group that is talented up front — and healthier than it has been in years.
If Johnson can get Chicago to another level offensively, the sky’s the limit in the Windy City. The Bears were 13th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.002) last year, so they don’t have to get too much better on that side of the ball. Plus, they brought in some big bodies to address their porous run defense. That said, they should be ready to rock on defense.
Of course, the NFC North is loaded. Detroit will be good again, Minnesota has been consistently excellent under Kevin O’Connell and Green Bay is always a threat to make the playoffs. So, going from worst to first will be a challenge for Chicago. But the Bears have a win total of 8.5 this year, and you can get plus-money odds to take the Over. If things break right, Chicago could go Over that mark — and a spot in the postseason isn’t out of the question.
New England Patriots
The Patriots should be able to get right rather quickly. Going from Jerod Mayo to Mike Vrabel is a huge upgrade on the sidelines, and Josh McDaniels is a good offensive coordinator for Drake Maye, who should be awesome in Year 2 under center.
Maye was actually 12th amongst starting quarterbacks in Completion Percentage Over Expected (2.8%) as a rookie, and he already looks like a dangerous runner — he averaged 8.8 yards per carry last season. With New England having signed Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury, Maye has a better group blocking for him. The team also used the fourth overall pick on LSU lineman Will Campbell, who notably said he’s going to “fight and die” trying to protect Maye after being selected. All of that, combined with some small improvements at the skill positions, should mean a much better Patriots offense.
New England also loaded up quite a bit defensively, signing Milton Williams, Carlton Davis, Harold Landry III and Robert Spillane to add to a group that should already be better with Vrabel just being around.
This is just a more talented team and a better coached team than it was last season, and it’s checking a lot of boxes when looking for Over plays on regular season win totals. But I wouldn’t stop there with the Pats. This is a team in which you’ll want to consider some alt Overs at great prices, and an easy schedule is a big part of that.
New England has home games against seven opponents that had losing records last year. Tack on another four road games against opponents that were below .500 and this could be a team that hits double-digit wins. Honestly, the Patriots have a better shot than the Dolphins of giving the Bills a run for their money atop the AFC East.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers will play 11 games against opponents with losing records from 2024. That alone means we should see a better season for a Carolina team that was very competitive to end the 2024 season. It also doesn’t hurt that the Panthers open the season with seven winnable games. Starting the season on the right note is a good way for a team to build confidence and shake off a bad year.
Carolina also added some talent on defense, including Tershawn Wharton, Bobby Brown III and Tre’von Moehrig. And getting Derrick Brown back should mean the Panthers will immediately be tougher to run against than they were last year. Also, rookies Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen could make some noise as edge rushers.
Defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is also highly-regarded around the league. He did good work as the coordinator for Denver in 2022, and he should be able to patch things up now that Carolina gave him some actual talent to work with.
As far as the offense goes, we could see an entirely different Panthers team. Bryce Young is going to be extremely comfortable in his second year in Dave Canales’ offense, and we saw the third-year signal-caller do some great things towards the end of last year. Young finished the season throwing for seven touchdowns and no picks in his final three games. And over the second half of 2024, Carolina performed like a top-15 offense in EPA per play. With improved offensive line play, we could see the Panthers flirt with top-10 offensive production — especially if rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan is ready to make use of that 6-foot-5 body of his. Carolina didn’t have a true No. 1 receiver in Young’s first two years in the league.
Realistically, heading into last season, Carolina was pegged as a sleeper team after beefing up the offensive line and making some big short-term investments. Sure, the Panthers ended up disappointing a bit, but sometimes we’re a year early in predicting the success of young teams. Carolina looks like a great bet to go Over its win total, and I wouldn’t rule out the Panthers winning the NFC South. Of all of the teams looking to go from worst to first, Carolina has the best shot.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Liam Coen, the new head coach of the Jaguars, didn’t receive as much hype as Ben Johnson did, but he did a similarly spectacular job last season. Coen was the offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers, who finished the season fifth in the NFL in EPA per play (0.133). Coen did tremendous work with Baker Mayfield and an explosive Tampa Bay passing game, but he also got the ground game going. The Bucs were sixth in the league in Rush EPA per play (0.012) in 2024. They were 27th in Rush EPA per play (-0.166) in 2023.
Coen will now look to make some things happen with a Jacksonville offense that was 19th in EPA per play (-0.023) last year. And there’s really no reason to think he can’t. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t lived up to his pre-draft hype, but we know he has a big arm, great size and the ability to make plays with his legs. He’s also not too far removed from a 2022 season in which he completed 66.3% of his passes and threw for 4,113 yards with 25 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. Well, Coen’s offense should be able to bring that version of Lawrence out again. The Jaguars are going to do a lot of things pre-snap, and receivers should be schemed open more often than they were under Doug Pederson. Also, Grant Udinski should be able to add a lot to the offense. The new Jacksonville offensive coordinator has been with Minnesota since 2022, so he should be able to help Coen install some of Kevin O’Connell’s playbook.
As long as the Jaguars offensive line isn’t a nightmare, we could be looking at a sleeping giant when talking about the Jacksonville offense — especially with Brian Thomas Jr. in Year 2, looking poised to take advantage of being in this new system.
If the offense lives up to the hype, it isn’t crazy to think the Jags can contend in the AFC South. Of course, Jacksonville can’t be the league-worst team in the league when it comes to Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.241) again. But it’s hard to expect that given some of the team’s offseason moves. The Jaguars used the second overall pick on two-way superstar Travis Hunter, who should add a lot to the secondary. It’s not yet clear how many snaps he’ll play on defense, but he’s an electric, ball-hawking playmaker that will contribute when he’s out there. Jacksonville also added Jourdan Lewis, who should be productive while some of the team’s younger corners look to crack the depth chart. The Jags will also be hoping for a bounceback year from Tyson Campbell, who played great ball in 2022. And some continued growth from Montaric Brown could help the defense a lot.
It’s just hard not to like the group of pass rushers Jacksonville has, and the linebacking corps is solid as well. So, it isn’t crazy to expect new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile to fix this defense up. He’s viewed as an outside-the-box thinker — much like the new Jags head coach and front office members — and he’ll be aggressive with the tools he has at his disposal.
Overall, this is just a talented team that can make some real strides with a new set of voices on the coaching staff. People liked this team to contend in the AFC a year ago, and that didn’t work out for a number of different reasons. But there’s no reason that leap can’t come a year later, and it doesn’t hurt that Jacksonville plays in one of the weakest divisions in the league.
