2026 NFL Survivor Pools
The NFL is such a juggernaut of a league that we think about it all year long. With the opening game on September 9 and the Super Bowl on February 14 (better talk your way into alternate Valentine’s Day plans now), there are 159 days where the league is truly in-season, and 206 days without it, yet here we are obsessing over the draft in April and the schedule release in May.
But, that also means it’s never too early to plot out your course of action in NFL Survivor pools. Obviously we have a big one right here at the Circa Resort & Casino, where you can wave hi to our hosts in the world’s largest sportsbook and take your shot at winning an enormous prize guarantee. There are also some very, very noticeable wrinkles that are not exclusive to this contest, but are certainly not classified as the traditional settings.
As an annual Circa Survivor participant and somebody who was down to the final 13 back in 2023 with my partner Marc “Spooky” Goldberg, the contest never seems to stray that far from my mind and I don’t think I’m alone in that. Whether you are in Circa Survivor, a big pool somewhere else, or even ones with just friends/family/co-workers, you know that the concept is simple and the execution is not.
Pick one team to win each week. Once you take a team, you cannot take them again. Like I always say about Circa Survivor, which is 18 weeks plus a “week” for Thanksgiving and a “week” for Christmas, you have to take 20 of the 32 NFL teams to win. There are not 20 really good teams in the NFL. In order to know when to deploy those lesser teams in the most advantageous spot possible, creating a blueprint for each week is a good way to get in the right mindset, organize your thoughts, and have a plan of attack.
As we all know, “the best-laid plans often go awry”, but even poet Robert Burns had to believe in having a plan. You just have to be adaptable. That is especially true in a contest such as this. Injuries happen. Teams overperform. Teams underwhelm. Coaches get fired. Applying some game theory presents opportunities that you hadn’t previously considered. By no means is your plan in the spring or summer going to be gospel for the entire season, but preparedness matters a lot in Survivor.
The most obvious example for the 2026 season is that six of the eight teams that play on Christmas Eve or Christmas also play on Thanksgiving Eve, Thanksgiving, or Black Friday. Remember, you can only take each team once. As mentioned, in Circa Survivor, where the holidays are their own “weeks”, that means that you’d like to have as many of those teams available as possible because those games are in late November and late December where anything can happen.
The Packers, Rams, Bears, Bills, Eagles, and Broncos are the six teams. Not only are Packers vs. Bears, Bills vs. Broncos, and Rams vs. Seahawks brutal games to pick from in a contest with literally zero margin for error, but what if Josh Allen gets hurt? What if Matthew Stafford gets hurt? What if Bo Nix is missing three offensive linemen? What if the Packers are down four or five starting defensive players?
So that’s one part. The other part is trying to isolate the teams that you want to pick on early, late, and often. The Cardinals (+230), Dolphins (+400), Jets (+850), and Raiders (+950) are all lined in single digits to have the fewest wins. The next tier has the Browns (13/1), Falcons (14/1), and Titans (16/1). Your view may vary on these two sets of teams, but they are likely to be underdogs more often than not and likely significant underdogs more often than not.
Lastly, let’s talk about your Survivor goal. Your goal is to go 18-0 (or 20-0, in the case of Circa Survivor), but that starts by going 1-0 each week. Weighing the risk and reward of “saving” a team for another week, another spot, another game can be both a blessing and a curse. If you are saving the Ravens for Week 5 instead of taking them in Week 1 and Lamar Jackson gets hurt in Week 4, that plan goes out the window. However, if Jackson is still healthy and you took a lesser team in Week 1 to get by, you may have a stronger option than some of the others in the pool. You have to thread the needle between planning to go 18-0 or 20-0 while not hurting your chances too badly of going 1-0 by thinking more about the future than the present.
Alright, so the schedule is out. We can see the situational spots to consider. We can see when there might be some really young teams to pick on early or some older teams to attempt to pick on late when everybody is tired. With 10 new head coaches around the league, we can see who their early assignments are. Again, you’re not tied to this by any means, but it is an exercise to show how to plan your route to winning your NFL Survivor pool.
Note: If you do not reside in Nevada, you need to sign-up in person and use a proxy service to enter the picks. We recommend our partners, Winners Circle Proxy Service.
Let’s go week-to-week and plot out a path for 2026 Survivor. All odds are from DraftKings as of May 15.
Week 1
Jaguars (-7) over Browns
The first game of the Todd Monken era comes against a team that went 13-4 and won nine of their last 10 regular season games for first-year head coach Liam Coen. That was also with an offense that put up just 5.2 yards per play.
On the Cleveland side, you’re either going to get Deshaun Watson, who hasn’t played since October 20, 2024 and is coming off of a torn Achilles where he had some setbacks, or Shedeur Sanders, who had 10 interceptions against seven touchdowns.
While I think the Jaguars have a pretty reasonable schedule, this looks to be their biggest favorite role of the season, outside of maybe Tennessee at home in Week 12. Most importantly, they are not a Thanksgiving or Christmas team, so we don’t need to think about saving them.
Considerations: Lions (-7) over Saints, Bengals (-3.5) over Buccaneers, Chargers (-11.5) over Cardinals
Used: Jaguars
Week 2
Chargers (-8.5) over Raiders
One game is in the books for Fernando Mendoza and the Chargers now have some meaningful film to analyze. We should also have a Chargers team that has either cleaned up some mistakes from playing the lowly Cardinals or a team that got a whole lot of positive vibes rolling in that game. Hell, there’s even a chance that they maybe lost and are hellbent on righting that wrong.
No matter what, the Chargers are among the biggest favorites on the board. Much like the Chargers in Week 1, the 49ers draw that distinction in Week 2, but saving them is a reasonable option. One of the major considerations in this contest is deciding when to deploy a team. For example, as we look ahead to Week 3, the 49ers are the only double-digit favorite per the early DraftKings odds. The other TD+ favorites in Week 3 are the Chiefs on the road in Miami, Lions at home against the Jets, and the Packers against the Falcons on TNF. KC and DET play on Thanksgiving. GB plays on both.
So, with that in mind, the Chargers get deployed here, as they’ll have a book on Mendoza and can spend the week reading it, while the 49ers get pushed a week.
By the way, you’ll notice a pattern with the “considerations” section in that a lot of the holiday teams will be listed there. As mentioned in the intro, the goal is to hold the line with them as long as you can, but they are all good teams.
Considerations: Rams (-8.5) over Giants on MNF, 49ers (-10.5) over Dolphins, Ravens (-7.5) over Saints, Buccaneers (-5.5) over Browns
Used: Jaguars, Chargers
Week 3
49ers (-11.5) over Cardinals
The first time picking on the Cardinals and it surely won’t be the last. I went through the thought process under the Week 2 heading, but it’s pretty simple. The 49ers don’t play on Thanksgiving or Christmas, they are the biggest favorite on the board, and it looks like the optimal time to deploy them.
The other place to use the 49ers is in Week 9 when they host Las Vegas and will be coming off of the bye. That is a week to consider using Seattle hosting the Cardinals, even though the Seahawks are a Christmas team. The Browns are also at the Saints that week. New Orleans is an option this week against the Raiders at home, but I’d rather wait on them, as they face Cleveland coming off of the bye.
Considerations: Packers (-7.5) over Falcons on TNF, Lions (-9.5) over Jets, Chiefs (-7) over Dolphins (road)
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers
Week 4
Vikings (-7.5) over Dolphins
This is the toughest week of the season thus far. Not because there aren’t options, but because there may very well be too many options. That means that you need to weigh the risk and reward of all of them. The Bears play on both holidays, so they’re out, despite being tied for the biggest favorite role.
Where it gets more difficult is with the Giants and Ravens. The Giants have good home options in Week 3 (Titans), Week 4 (Cardinals), Week 6 (Saints), and Week 15 (Browns). Fading the Cardinals with an early kickoff and their third road game in four weeks is very easy to do and this is a spot where I did agonize over the decision a little bit.
The Ravens are going to be favored a fair amount, but this is arguably the best spot to take them. Still, my eyes are on Week 16 at home against Cleveland, since that’s the other situation in which they could be a favorite of this size.
Ultimately, it comes down to this – you have to take 20 of the 32 NFL teams to win. There are other spots in which the Giants or Ravens can be used. The Vikings don’t play the Browns, Cardinals, or Raiders, and play the Jets on the road in Week 17. To me, this is the only place to use them with some confidence, at least as of now.
Considerations: Giants (-7) over Cardinals, Bears (-8.5) over Jets, Ravens (-8.5) over Titans
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings
Week 5
Bengals (-5.5) over Dolphins
So, there’s a method to the madness here, as Cincinnati is a road team and that’s never a fun sweat in Survivor. The reality is that the Patriots are probably the best play, but Week 6 has fewer options than Week 5 as things currently stand.
Joe Burrow in good weather seems like a reasonable bet. Plus, with his injury history, maybe it’s better to deploy the Bengals sooner rather than later. Of course, Cincinnati has been absolute hell on Survivor players over the last few years, so this one has potential to be plenty scary.
But, look. The Bengals have a bye right after this and then take on the Ravens after the bye. This is a third road game in four weeks, but it’s not a particularly daunting spot and all of the games are early kickoffs, so there’s no extensive travel or anything.
Saving the Bengals for the potentially hapless Browns is always an option, but that game isn’t until Week 18 at home. Cincinnati’s schedule becomes a bit discombobulated after the bye with a potential letdown spot against the Titans in Week 8 in advance of the trip to Madrid and off of a game against the Ravens. It seems like we just hope to chalk this one up as a win and fight another day.
Considerations: Cowboys (-3.5) over Buccaneers on TNF, Patriots (-8.5) over Raiders, Lions (-8.5) over Cardinals (road)
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals
Week 6
Patriots (-9.5) over Jets
These damn holiday games, man. The NFL put together a set of bangers on both holidays and that means that a lot of good teams have to be held in reserve and that’s why there will be a lot of bobbing and weaving early in the Survivor season.
The biggest example is that the Rams are nearly a two-touchdown favorite against the Cardinals here in Week 6, but they play on Thanksgiving Eve and Christmas Day. In my opinion, you cannot afford to burn a holiday team this early. That’s why the Patriots, who are probably the best Week 5 option, had to slide to Week 6 and a little bit more of a dice roll on the road Bengals was ultimately the Week 5 decision.
This is a microcosm of what I always say about Survivor. The concept is simple. Pick a team to win. The execution is so much harder because of the holidays and because there are only so many good teams. But, the Patriots are one of them and they’re actually a bigger favorite in Week 6 on the early numbers than they are in Week 5.
Considerations: Rams (-13.5) over Cardinals, Ravens (-6.5) over Browns (road), Colts (-3.5) over Titans, Bills (-6.5) at Raiders, 49ers (-5.5) over Commanders on MNF
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots
Week 7
Texans (-5.5) over Giants
This was a week that I looked at quite a bit. The holidays are very much a factor here and will continue to be a bigger and bigger factor as we start using and crossing off teams that are above average or better. There are only so many teams that you want to trust and you’ll have to find almost perfect scenarios to want to back other teams.
Overall, this strikes me as a decent spot to let the Texans loose. It may not be ideal, as they’re coming back from London without the bye week. They have the bye week after this, so it should be a “circle the wagons” type of situation. It is the same situation for the Giants, who have the bye week after this, but there is enough equity in the Texans to take them here and try to fight another week.
The Titans are a very serious consideration here. They won’t have many favorite roles, and if we pass on them in Week 1 against the Jets and Week 7 against the Browns, we may not get another favorite role and they’ll be tossed in the pile of 12 teams that doesn’t get selected.
Considerations: Titans (-2.5) over Browns, Broncos (-7.5) over Cardinals (road), Rams (-7.5) over Raiders
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans
Week 8
Cowboys (-10.5) over Cardinals
The first holiday team comes off the board here, but let’s walk through it. First, the Cowboys only play on Thanksgiving, leaving nine other teams under consideration. Second, barring multiple injuries, I don’t think I’d feel overly comfortable taking Dallas against Philadelphia and, frankly, the Cowboys might be the team I’d be least likely to select. Third, that Thanksgiving Eve game is big because we have 10 teams now instead of eight. Given that five teams play on both holidays, we’re pretty handcuffed.
But, this is the biggest favorite role of the season for the Cowboys and I feel content with taking them here. The quality of the double-holiday teams becomes more and more of a drag each week because you know that they are off-limits. Bending a little bit to take Dallas off the board seems reasonable at this juncture.
Considerations: Packers (-7) over Panthers on TNF, Bengals (-6.5) over Titans, Buccaneers (-4.5) over Falcons, Steelers (-5.5) over Browns, Patriots (-7) over Dolphins (road)
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys
Week 9
Saints (-3.5) over Browns
This week represents everything that makes a Survivor contest with the holiday wrinkles tough. The Seahawks are almost a two-touchdown favorite against the Cardinals. The 49ers, who I used earlier to protect some holiday teams, are over a touchdown favorite at home against the Raiders. The Eagles will probably be around a touchdown favorite at home against the Giants. The Lions are nearly laying a touchdown and PAT against the Dolphins. The Chiefs are bordering on a double-digit favorite against the Jets.
But, I used the Cowboys, so I need to save the Eagles for Thanksgiving in case they become an option. Same with the Chiefs at Buffalo. The Lions are a home team on Turkey Day. The Seahawks are one of eight Christmas teams.
So, it falls to the Saints, but it is a phenomenal spot for New Orleans. The Saints are coming off of the bye and the Browns are coming off of playing the rival Steelers in their ninth game in a row and this will be their third straight road game. This looks like the epitome of a “schedule loss” if I’ve ever seen one. It’s also entirely possible that Cleveland beats Pittsburgh the week prior given that the Steelers will be coming back from the league’s first-ever Paris game. If that’s the case, add a letdown spot to the mix.
Considerations: Chiefs (-9.5) over Jets, Eagles (-5.5) over Giants, Lions (-6.5) over Dolphins, 49ers (-8.5) over Raiders, Seahawks (-13.5) over Cardinals
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Saints
Week 10
Colts (-6.5) over Dolphins
Whoa-oh, we’re halfway there. And hopefully still livin’ on a prayer.
This is a really strong setup and a pretty easy pick to make. Fading the Dolphins should prove to be fruitful and there is nothing overly compromising about this spot for Indy. They do have to play at Houston on a short week in Week 11, but this is a second straight home game and is very far removed from their early-season trip across the pond.
Again, not the biggest favorite on the board, but the play that seems to make the most sense.
Considerations: Bills (-7) over Jets (road), Rams (-10.5) over Cardinals (road), Seahawks (-7) over Raiders (road)
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Saints, Colts
Week 11
Chiefs (-11.5) over Cardinals
I’m writing this article in May. If Josh Allen gets hurt prior to the Week 12 Thanksgiving night game against the Chiefs, then obviously we’d have to adjust accordingly. For now, taking Kansas City on a short week with travel to face the Bills is not at the top of my Thanksgiving list.
To some degree, this is a contentious pick. There’s some equity in taking one of the five Thanksgiving teams that does not play on Christmas so that you can save all of those options. Given that the Cowboys were the Week 8 pick, only three Thanksgiving options fit that criteria – Lions, Steelers, Eagles with a KC selection.
I’m okay with that and okay with the Chiefs here as a result. Basically, I’ve isolated either the Lions or Rams as my preferred Thanksgiving picks. The risk of QB injury is always there, but embracing risk is a major tenet of playing a Survivor contest.
So, I’ll roll with the Chiefs as clear favorites, especially because the only remaining time to take them confidently looks like Week 18.
Considerations: Bills (-11.5) over Dolphins, Chargers (-9.5) over Jets, Cowboys (-6.5) over Titans, Broncos (-8.5) over Raiders
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Chiefs
Thanksgiving “Week” (in Circa Survivor)
Lions (-2.5) over Bears
None of the five games feel overly appealing, but like I said, the Lions only play on one holiday. The Rams were a really strong consideration here because I don’t know that I’d want to take them on the road at Seattle, but I believe in keeping all the Christmas teams for as long as I absolutely can.
The Lions are home for a second straight week after coming back from Munich and that’s good enough for me with a bunch of coin-flippy games otherwise.
Considerations: Rams (-3.5) over Packers, Eagles (+1.5) over Cowboys
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Chiefs, Lions
Week 12
Buccaneers (-3.5) over Panthers
Back to regularly scheduled programming, but here’s the thing. Ten teams were part of the Thanksgiving “Week”, so we’re down to 22 teams and 11 games on the weekend. This is where the cost you paid to get to this point starts to take a toll. The Jaguars and Bengals look like better options on paper. But, sometimes the lesser of evils has to be the play.
Initially, my eyes went to the Vikings -4.5 over the Falcons. Here’s the problem – Minnesota is coming back from playing in Mexico City (2,000+ feet higher in elevation than Denver) and the Falcons are coming off of the bye. That was enough to scare me away with that one.
The other option is the Commanders -4.5 on the road against the Cardinals. Frankly, by Week 12, that may be a much better play and a more obvious one. It is tough to take a team on a short week (Commanders off MNF vs. Cincinnati) on a long trip out west. But, the Cardinals are pretty clearly worse than the Panthers.
Torn in three directions, the Buccaneers, somewhat reluctantly, end up being the pick on Monday Night Football. Their Week 10 bye compared to Carolina’s Week 5 bye was definitely part of the internal monologue here. And, hell, who knows, maybe the Browns are a viable option by this point against the visiting Raiders, especially if the late November weather cooperates.
Considerations: Commanders (-4.5) over Cardinals, Vikings (-4.5) over Falcons, Bengals (-6.5) over Saints, Jaguars (-5.5) over Titans, Browns (-2.5) over Raiders
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Chiefs, Lions, Buccaneers
Week 13
Eagles (-8.5) at Cardinals
Ultimately, the big decision for me here is taking the Eagles on the road or burning the Broncos at home against the Dolphins. Philadelphia is a Christmas Eve team and Denver is a Christmas Day team, so both are part of the Christmas “week”.
Philly is on extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving, so that’s a positive, especially with a long trek to the desert. Arizona has the bye week after this and you know damn well that team is going to be looking forward to a week in Cancun by this point.
Factoring in the scheduling spots and the desire to hold onto the Broncos, this wound up not being that hard of a decision, even though you can absolutely convince me that Eagles vs. Texans > Broncos vs. Bills for Christmas.
Considerations: Broncos (-9.5) over Dolphins, Vikings (-3.5) over Panthers
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Chiefs, Lions, Buccaneers, Eagles
Week 14
Ravens (-6) over Buccaneers
Fingers crossed that Lamar Jackson is healthy. The Ravens are a pretty good team to have this deep into the season, as we can assume that they’ll be playing for something and they are also coming off of the bye. Not too shabby of a setup for Week 14 given all the bobbing and weaving we’ve done to this point.
The Bucs are not off of the bye and this is a standalone road game and the last remaining outdoor road game for the warm-weather Floridians.
No Christmas concerns. Rested team, so even if Jackson is dinged, he’s got some extra time. Sign me up.
Considerations: Patriots (-4.5) over Vikings on TNF, Eagles (-5.5) over Colts, Bears (-5.5) over Dolphins (road), Broncos (-5.5) over Jets (road), Lions (-7.5) over Titans, Seahawks (-7.5) over Giants
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Chiefs, Lions, Buccaneers, Eagles, Ravens
Week 15
Packers (-10.5) over Dolphins
When you get this deep in the contest, it consumes every part of your life. Sleeping will be difficult. You’ll zone out during conversations. That work project doesn’t matter. You’re just constantly running the scenarios through your mind. By this point, these are probably six-figure decisions, or at least high five-figure decisions. There’s a lot of pressure in that.
Is now the time to burn another Christmas team? There are seven Christmas options left on our hypothetical list. Using the Packers means that there would be six. Green Bay plays on the road at Chicago. If you ranked the seven picks 1 through 7, would the Packers be the least attractive option? I would say Houston at Philly, but that would leave Green Bay sixth.
Ultimately, you have to get to the point where you have to make that choice and I think passing on a double-digit favorite at this stage of the game would be extremely difficult. I do think the Packers would be near the bottom of my list, so I’ll let ‘em rip here.
I’ll tell you what, though. The Giants are a sneaky good pick to have available here and might be the safety net and lifeline that we need.
Considerations: Giants (-4.5) over Browns, Buccaneers (-3.5) over Saints, Commanders (-3.5) over Falcons, Rams (-5.5) over Cowboys
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Chiefs, Lions, Buccaneers, Eagles, Ravens, Packers
Christmas “Week” (Circa Survivor)
Broncos (+1.5) over Bills
Now, I should note that Christmas Eve is Texans vs. Eagles and the Eagles might be the best option of them all, so saving them may end up being the optimal play.
All of the Christmas games are 1.5-point spreads based on the early lines. My thought process here is that I’ll take Denver at home with the elevation on a short week with travel for Buffalo, even as an underdog. Theoretically, the Bills have the safety nets of the Dolphins and Jets if they need them the final two weeks of the season. Athletes probably don’t think that way, but it’s at least an increased margin for error that Denver does not have.
Unless there is some truly significant injury, none of the eight Christmas “week” options are what I would consider trustworthy. You just hope for the best.
The Bears might also be the stronger option here given that they are at least favored, but the late-season altitude factor is the deciding point for me.
Considerations: Eagles (-2.5) over Texans, Bears (-1.5) over Packers
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Chiefs, Lions, Buccaneers, Eagles, Ravens, Packers, Broncos
Week 16
Steelers (-3.5) over Panthers
Once again, the cost of surviving takes its toll here, as the Chargers (-7) at Dolphins, Saints (-5.5) vs. Cardinals, Ravens (-9.5) vs. Browns, Patriots (-6.5) at Jets, and Lions (-5.5) vs. Giants on MNF are all bigger favorites.
Simply put, it’s going to be cold in Pittsburgh on December 27. Based on how the schedule looks for Carolina, this will be their one and only cold-weather game of the season, as they play four of their final five games at home and two of their previous three road games are indoors, with the other in Tampa.
Like I keep saying – you have to take 20 of the 32 NFL teams to win this thing. Sometimes, you’re going to be left with something like this.
Considerations: Chargers (-7) over Dolphins (road), Saints (-5.5) over Cardinals, Ravens (-9.5) over Browns, Patriots (-6.5) over Jets (road), Lions (-5.5) over Giants
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Chiefs, Lions, Buccaneers, Eagles, Ravens, Packers, Broncos, Steelers
Week 17
Seahawks (-5.5) over Panthers
I will be honest – this game scares me the most of any on this list. This game is sandwiched between games against the Rams, is a cross-country trip for an early kickoff in Week 17, and the Panthers may very well be playing for something.
But, it seems really counter-intuitive to let the reigning Super Bowl champions go unused, doesn’t it? Ultimately, I want to save the Bills for Week 18 for the purposes of this exercise, even though who knows what Weeks 17 and 18 will look like by the time we get there.
This is actually a second long trip east in three weeks for Seattle, but they do have an extra day and a half of rest or so after playing on Christmas Friday. Carolina will be playing a 12th straight game after having their bye very early in Week 5. Admittedly, I don’t love this and maybe should have structured things differently to get to this point, but the reality is that the Seahawks are the second-biggest favorite on the board with the early Week 17 lines and one would assume they’re playing for something.
Considerations: Jaguars (-3.5) over Commanders, Bills (-7.5) over Dolphins, Cowboys (-4.5) over Giants
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Chiefs, Lions, Buccaneers, Eagles, Ravens, Packers, Broncos, Steelers, Seahawks
Week 18
Bills (-10) over Jets
I cannot stress how much of an accomplishment it is to make a deep run in Survivor, let alone still be alive in Week 18. I hope to find out one day what it’s like to be on the cusp of winning this contest, but I know that there was an immense sense of pride once the disappointment wore off about the deep run we had back in 2023.
If we look over the past three NFL seasons, underdogs of 7+ points have 48 outright wins. Sure, that comes over the span of more than 200 games and they only have a 22.4% win percentage, but it happens. And avoiding those landmines takes a lot of luck, good fortune, and sharp planning
The main takeaway from this exercise is precisely what I said in the intro. You have to plan to go 18-0 or 20-0, but also prioritize going 1-0 each week. Sketching out a plan for the season is a good way to do that, if for nothing else to familiarize yourself with the schedule and when the best opportunities are to use teams.
Considerations: Patriots (-10.5) over Jets, Bengals (-7.5) over Browns, Chiefs (-8.5) over Raiders, Texans (-7) over Titans, 49ers (-8.5) over Cardinals (road)
Used: Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Chiefs, Lions, Buccaneers, Eagles, Ravens, Packers, Broncos, Steelers, Seahawks, Bills
