MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, September 10.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:15 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves
Both starting pitchers are allowing a lot of contact. Nick Martinez of the Rays has a 3.04 ERA and 3.95 fielding independent with only 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He has also allowed only 1.4 walks and 1.1 home runs per nine innings. Braves starting pitcher Martin Perez appears due for regression on his 3.25 ERA. He has a 4.31 fielding independent with 6.8 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings. Perez is supported by a lineup that is ninth in scoring with over 4.6 runs per game.
Pick: Rays vs. Braves Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
1:05 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier has struggled this season, posting a 5.96 ERA with 1.6 home runs and four walks per nine innings. He faces a Phillies lineup that has been far better at home than away from home with over 4.9 runs per game at home compared to four runs per game on the road. Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has given up more home runs than normal, with his 1.3 home runs per nine innings being his highest output since 2017. He still has a 3.23 ERA with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Phillies Run Line -1.5 +125
Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -1.5 -104
4:10 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom has struggled on the road this season, posting a 2.46 ERA with 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed at home, compared to a 5.86 ERA with 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed on the road. Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert has a 3.71 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings. He also has huge home and road splits, with a 2.70 road ERA with 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 4.45 home ERA with nearly 2.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. Since July 1, both bullpens have struggled, with the Mariners 29th in bullpen ERA in this span at 5.80, while the Rangers are 28th at 5.33.
Pick: Rangers vs. Mariners Over 6.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.2
7:05 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Yankees
While Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried is getting only 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings, his lowest amount since 2020, he’s been a master at inducing soft contact with three home runs allowed in 95 2/3 innings for a 2.73 ERA. Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner has a 5.91 ERA overall this season with 1.6 home runs and 4.1 walks per nine innings. In his last 10 starts, Feltner has a 7.93 ERA with nearly two home runs per nine innings allowed. The Yankees have the best bullpen ERA in the league at 3.08, while the Rockies are 26th with a 4.78 bullpen ERA.
Pick: Rockies vs.Yankees Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
7:40 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago White Sox
Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones owns a 4.46 ERA with a lower 3.88 fielding independent. He’s averaging 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings, 1.4 home runs allowed, and 3.2 walks per nine innings. White Sox starting pitcher Luis Castillo is getting a career-low 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. It has resulted in a huge dip in production, with a 5.56 ERA and 1.7 home runs per nine innings. Since being traded from Seattle, he has a 7.52 ERA with 2.7 home runs per nine innings in six starts. Both offenses have been strong this season. The Pirates are fifth in scoring with just under 4.9 runs per game. The White Sox are sixth with over 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates vs. White Sox Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
