NFL Survivor
We have already had a very interesting season in Survivor pools across the world, as some major upsets have thinned the field really early on, including last week’s Buccaneers win over the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. But, this week is the most interesting to me from a philosophy standpoint. Sure, we could get more shockers that end up costing contestants some or all of their remaining entries. It’s the pick distribution that I’m excited to see, especially because the Dolphins are on their bye week.
There are several options this week in Circa Survivor and the other Survivor contests. Some teams may have already been used over the first five weeks. Others have holiday considerations for those in a contest with those rules. Others are big favorites that haven’t really played that well and feel kind of dangerous to back in a contest that literally has zero margin for error.
So, while this week looks fairly easy based on the point spreads, it is pretty complex. And, once again, that’s the beauty of this contest. Its simplicity and also its complexity.
Keep in mind that there is also the opportunity to use a marketplace like Survivor Sweat to offset a little bit of your exposure or get back in the game.
Once again, we’ll be using the Survivor tools from PoolGenius to plot out a course for the season and evaluate the pool picks each week.
Week 6 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Rams (-12.5) over Cardinals
Let’s get this one out of the way right away. If you don’t have to worry about holiday weeks, this is your pick. Even though the Rams are 1-4 and the season has not gone the way that they expected it to, this is the optimal place to deploy them. It is their biggest favorite role and you have to think that they’re pretty desperate to get the win.
Things will even out for this team. They’re outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play, have almost a 12% difference in third-down conversion rate for and against, and probably won’t keep being one of the worst teams in the league from a field position standpoint. They have 32 more first downs than their opponents and have played a pretty tough schedule to this point. Four missed field goals surely haven’t helped, but that issue has been addressed.
Despite looking somewhat competitive based on their point totals, the Cardinals are getting outgained by 1.7 yards per play and have given up nearly three points per drive, which is dead last in the league. Opponents have scored on 49.1% of their possessions. I don’t think I have to keep selling this.
But, if you do have to worry about holiday weeks, the Rams play on both of them. Furthermore, as things stand right now, they are clearly the team with the highest win probability for Thanksgiving. PoolGenius has them at 73%. Dallas is next at 66% and trusting Dallas right now feels like trusting a fart in a business meeting after having Taco Bell for lunch.
The Rams are 86% per PoolGenius to win this week, but if you have to worry about Thanksgiving and Christmas, I don’t think you can do it.
Chiefs (-8) over Chargers
Even though I had the Bucs in Week 2 in this article, I’m still putting myself in the shoes of those who are still alive so I can share relevant information. For a lot of contestants, that probably means not having the Chiefs available. Personally, in this article for Week 3, that’s when I deployed KC for their road game against the Dolphins.
If you have the Chiefs available, by all means, give them a long and hard look. They do play in Buffalo on the Thanksgiving “week” and that is something you have to think about. It’s something I thought about and weighed the risk-reward of back in Week 3. KC is off of a bye and at home, while the Chargers are a sinking ship.
The Chargers have turned the ball over 13 times this season. They only have 1.4 points per drive and just 4.8 yards per play. Conversely, the Chiefs have turned the ball over just twice, with 2.7 points per drive and 6.5 yards per play on offense.
PoolGenius has the Chiefs at 78% to win this week, but, incredibly, that’s not even their highest mark left this season. Those would be Week 9 (79%) against the Jets and Week 11 (83%) against the Cardinals. Plus, they do have that Thanksgiving game.
Colts (-7) over Titans
I think the Colts will be a pretty popular pick, even though they play the Dolphins at home in Week 10 and that’s the optimal place to deploy them. This is one of the teams I was talking about in the intro to see the pick distribution. The Titans, like the Dolphins, are winless and it might make sense to fire on Indy before they have any key injuries. Other considerations, like those above, plus the 49ers and Patriots, are deeper rosters for the most part.
The Colts are not a holiday team, so that also helps the case this week. I do have major worries about this team. They’ve only averaged 4.6 yards per play and are -6 in turnover margin. The defense has allowed 6.2 YPP and only has two takeaways. Without Spencer Shrader going 11-for-11 from 40+ this season, including 6-for-6 from 50+, things would look even worse for Indy. I think we hold off this week and hope things look better in Week 10. They also have a home game against the Giants in Week 12 that looks reasonable.
PoolGenius has the Colts at 70% to win this week.
Patriots (-7) over Jets
Again, I go back to the intro of this week’s article. I’m very curious to see what the philosophy looks like for the contestants. The Patriots and 49ers are pretty similar in terms of win expectancy, but planning for the future is also very important. If I was still alive, I certainly wouldn’t be thinking about Week 18, but the Dolphins do play in Foxboro, which is probably not ideal in January.
But, the Patriots also play the Dolphins on the road in Week 8. I used the Bengals last week and PoolGenius has them as the team most likely to win, as they host the Titans. The Rams are third on that list, but they are a double holiday team. The Cowboys are next, but they’re a Thanksgiving team. The Jaguars are next, but they’ve been used by a lot of contestants. Like I said, I want to provide relevant info and I’m also not looking to use a repeat team.
So, the Patriots stay on the available teams list here because they look like a better option in two weeks. They are 78% to beat the Dolphins in Week 8 per PoolGenius. They are 73% to beat the Jets this week.
NFL Week 6 Survivor Pick
49ers (-7.5) over Commanders
To me, the decision to make this week in a contest with Circa Survivor-style rules is between the 49ers and the Patriots. Neither team plays on the holiday “week” and they’re both on pretty common ground in terms of win expectancy. We can probably all agree that the Commanders seem like more of a concerning opponent than the Jets, but also that the 49ers are a better team than the Patriots.
Based on their remaining schedule, the 49ers have one spot – Week 9 at home against the Raiders – that has a higher win probability than this week according to PoolGenius. The Raiders actually seem like a pretty decent team, though, and probably a better team than the Commanders.
We’ve got a lot of different schedule-related things in play here, like the 49ers coming off of a division game against the Seahawks and the Commanders coming off of a tie. Ultimately, though, the Commanders only have two takeaways on defense and I don’t see them beating the 49ers without taking the football away. San Fran committed three turnovers against the Seahawks and still won last time out.
It’s a long trek for Washington for a late game on Monday Night Football and Jayden Daniels is still working his way back into game shape after missing a couple weeks with the dislocated elbow. It’s also probably better to get the 49ers now before they start racking up injuries later in the season.
PoolGenius has the 49ers at 73% to win this week.
Pick: 49ers
Teams Used: Jaguars, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Vikings, Bengals
Follow the link for the rest of our NFL Week 6 content.
