Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, October 15, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* On LCS Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 31-8-1 for +22.15 units, an ROI of 56.8%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-LAD (o/u at 7.5)
* Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 42-65 SU (-27.23 units, ROI: -25.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-130 vs TB), LA DODGERS (-157 vs MIL)
Trend: Under the total is on an 18-4-1 (81.8%, +13.60 units) run in the Guardians-Rays series (5.26 runs per game in these 23 contests)
– The ROI on this trend is 61.8%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* CLEVELAND: 27-22 to the Under for +3.20 units
* TAMPA BAY: 20-16-1 to the Under for +2.35 units
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)
* MILWAUKEE: 25-11-1 to the Under for +12.85 units
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-LAD (o/u at 7.5)
Line angles
– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable. They are just 97-92 SU (-34.12 units, ROI: -18.1%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-130 vs TB), LA DODGERS (-157 vs MIL)
Coming off wins/losses
– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 68-70 SU (-20.92 units, ROI: -15.2%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-130 vs TB), LA DODGERS (-157 vs MIL)
Series wins status
– Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 100-90 on run lines (+24.32 units, ROI: 12.8%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-1.5 vs TB)
– Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 44-49 SU (-29.40 units, ROI: -31.6%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-157 vs MIL)
Stats from last game trends
– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 55-69 SU (-39.09 units, ROI: -31.5%) and 40-84 on run lines (-33.80 units, ROI: -27.3%) since 2012.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS
– Power surges don’t tend to last for big underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +130 or more coming off a game in which they hit three home runs or more are just 8-31 SU (-17.72 units, ROI: -45.4%) and 13-26 on run lines (-20.65 units, ROI: -52.9%) in the follow-up game since ’02.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+130 at LAD)
Trends based upon regular season records
– In the last five playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a 51-54 SU (+8.45 units, ROI: 8%) surge in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-130 vs TB)
Totals angles
– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 115-110-3, and Overs have produced a return of +19.44 units, an ROI of 8.6%. Total odds are usually heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5), MIL-LAD (o/u at 7.5)
LCS Round angles
– If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 62-27 (71.4%) for +17.69 units since 2000, an ROI of 19.9%!
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-157 vs MIL)
– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately though, going 49-46 (+15.56 units, ROI: 16.4%) since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+108 at CLE), MILWAUKEE (+130 at LAD)
– Teams losing while failing to score more than 2 runs in a LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 42-65 SU (-27.23 units, ROI: -25.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-130 vs TB), LA DODGERS (-157 vs MIL)
– The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring 7 runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same-series win in which they scored 6 runs or more, as those teams are just 28-42 SU (-19.88 units, ROI: -28.4%) since 2015, including 5-9 the last two years.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+130 at LAD)
– Game 4 underdogs are on a big run of 26-18 SU (+14.76 units, ROI: -33.5%) & 30-14 RL (+8.25 units, ROI: 18.8%) run since 2003 in the LCS round.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
– Game 4 teams trailing in their LCS series have really struggled of late, going 12-29 SU (-22.49 units, ROI: -54.8%) and 13-28 (-20.05 units, ROI: -48.9%) on run lines since ’05.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
– On Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 31-8-1 for +22.15 units, an ROI of 56.8%. This includes 3-1 over the last two years.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-LAD (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
– In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For ’26, these teams are just above the profitability line at 219-178 for +0.13 units, but at +0.03% ROI, still way better than the average loss (2-2, -0.57 units in the playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-130 vs TB)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the ’25 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams got off to a slow start but roared back in the season’s final month, ending the campaign with a record of 318-216 for +8.23 units and an ROI of +1.5% (8-7, -2.99 units in the playoffs).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-130 vs TB), LA DODGERS (-157 vs MIL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. – Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss (8-5, +4.57 units in the playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+130 at LAD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
– Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We continued to track this angle in 2026, and it finished 174-198 for +4.79 units.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-157 vs MIL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 120-177 SU (-29.84 units, ROI: -10%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+130 at LAD)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 59-28 SU for +20.48 units (ROI: 23.5%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-157 vs MIL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 172-177 (-79.33 units, ROI: -22.7%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+130 at LAD)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(911) TAMPA BAY (102-65) at (912) CLEVELAND (89-80)
Trend: Gavin Williams has a 1.80 ERA versus TB across five appearances in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-130 vs TB)
Trend: CLE is 47-62 (-9.33 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-1.5 vs TB)
(913) MILWAUKEE (109-60) at (914) LOS ANGELES-NL (103-66)
Trend: MIL is 18-6 (+9.34 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend: LAD is 33-51 (-23.18 units) on the run line at home this season
Trends Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 at LAD)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow’s teams are just 6-8 (-3.05 units) in his last 14 October starts
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-157 vs MIL)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #2: Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
Trend: Under the total is on an 18-4-1 (81.8%, +13.60 units) run in the Guardians-Rays series (5.26 runs per game in these 23 contests)
– The ROI on this trend is 61.8%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (17-12, +0.12 units in 2026).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+108 at CLE), MILWAUKEE (+130 at LAD)
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