NFL Survivor
If this is your first time playing a Survivor contest, I’m sorry. This season has been really harsh in so many different ways, as it seems like we’ve had a big favorite go down every single week. It’s Week 7 and only nine of 77 entries are alive in Circa Grandissimo and only 1,277 of 25,017 in Circa Survivor are still standing. Last week, the Rams and Colts knocked out over 1,600 of the remaining entries as the first- and third-most popular picks.
Each entry in Circa Survivor cost $1,000. The implied value per entry is now $19,590, which means that we have a lot of people using a marketplace like Survivor Sweat to facilitate ways to guarantee some profit. Some are still holding steady and are hoping that they can continue to gain equity in their positions. Some are probably privately looking to partner up. But it has been a crazy run thus far and we’re probably not done with shocking upsets.
There are three undefeated teams and two winless teams in the NFL this season. There are three teams with one win and one team has one loss. That means the vast majority of the league has between two and four losses and even some of the teams that we thought would be really good have struggled tremendously. Like I keep saying, while the simplicity of this contest is appealing, the execution is much harder than most comprehend unless they’ve really been in the trenches with it in the past.
On to the next round of games we go, where it does not appear to be a pleasant week. Of the 14 games, four are around 4, six of them are hovering around a spread of 3, and two are lower than that. Planning ahead to try and go 18-0 or 20-0 hasn’t worked out great this season because of the difficulty of going 1-0, but this is going to be a risky week.
Once again, we’ll be using the Survivor tools from PoolGenius to plot out a course for the season and evaluate the pool picks each week.
Week 7 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Vikings (-6.5) over Colts
Minnesota is a really, really difficult team to back here. Even though the Colts are 2-4 and haven’t looked very good, the amount of smoke and mirrors with the Vikings really does fill up the room. Minnesota is +6 in TO margin, leading the league with 10 takeaways. They are the top scoring defense in the NFL and have limited opponents to 1.09 points per drive.
But how long can Minnesota keep doing this with a poor offense? The Vikings only have 4.6 yards per play and are basically even on the season in yards per play differential. They are rushing for just 3.8 yards per carry and Kyler Murray has a 2/2 TD/INT ratio. This group is 19th in third-down conversion rate and 22nd in red-zone TD%. According to rbsdm.com, the Vikings are 27th in EPA/play on offense, dead last in Dropback Success Rate, and 27th in Rushing Success Rate.
Yes, the defense is elite to say the least. Minnesota’s -0.235 EPA/play is more than double the next best team, which is the Seahawks at -0.116. The 32% Success Rate against the Vikings is far and away the best in the league. They also have the lowest Rushing Success Rate against at 28%, which is tough for Indy to overcome given how valuable Jonathan Taylor is to the offense.
But, damn, that’s a really bad offense and bad offenses can get tripped up in games, no matter how well the defense plays.
I do think a lot of entries will take the chance this week. At 71% per PoolGenius, this is the highest win probability of the season for Minnesota. The Vikings are also coming off of the bye. Compared to the other options, that could be a big situational edge and maybe even a deciding factor.
Jets (-4) over Dolphins
I don’t know of anybody who would feel comfortable putting their Survivor life on the line by using the Jets. The Dolphins are the one reliable punching bag that contestants have had. Even though the Chargers are 0-6, I don’t think Survivor players have been running to fade them, just because that still is a more talented team than the record would indicate. The Dolphins probably deserve their 0-5 record.
The Jets, though?! I know. I know. But, as I’ve said before, to win this thing, even with all of the eliminations that we’ve seen so far, you have to assume that you need to go 18-0 or 20-0. That means taking 18 or 20 of the league’s 32 teams. That means trying to find optimal spots to use lesser teams because there are not 18 or 20 good teams in the league.
You won’t find a better spot to try the Jets. Their 68% win expectancy per PoolGenius is one of just three games north of 50% and the only one higher than 57% (at Miami in Week 12). As challenging as it is to view the Jets in a favorable light, they are seventh in scoring defense and do actually have a positive yards per play differential on the season.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 30th in points per drive, 29th in points per drive allowed, -4 in turnover margin, and Malik Willis has two TD passes against four interceptions while completing just 56% of his passes. For all of New York’s warts, Geno Smith has a 7/1 TD/INT ratio with a 68.9% completion rate. While he does lead the league in yards lost to sacks, Miami only has four sacks in five games.
NFL Week 7 Survivor Pick
Texans (-10) over Giants
Two things I need to mention at the start here. The first is that I have been writing this article with Circa Survivor rules, so the holiday weeks have to be taken into consideration. Houston plays on Christmas Eve against the Eagles. And, truth be told, with how the season has shifted for both teams, taking the road Texans may end up being the best play of that “week.”
The second is that the Texans are coming back from London without using their bye week. They’ll take that next week. It’s an adjustment that we’ve seen a lot of teams with an early game in Europe make. It seemed like everybody wanted the bye week after the Europe games and the league acquiesced to that request.
Those are two pretty big negatives, to be honest. But, Survivor is a risk-reward proposition and there’s less risk in taking the Texans than the Jets or Vikings and the reward is moving on. Figuring out what the NFL landscape looks like on December 24-25 is very hard to do. Significant injuries and other variables often alter how everything looks. It is tough to wipe out one of the eight Christmas teams.
Even though the Bucs cost me this “entry” in Week 2, I’m still not repeating teams and still playing it out with as much relevant info as I can pass along. To this point, I have not used any of the eight Christmas teams, so I feel comfortable losing one of them here.
As far as the handicap goes, get excited about J.J. McCarthy’s 243-yard fourth quarter against the Saints if you want, but he had a couple of explosives against a team playing really passive defense with a 34-10 lead. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, McCarthy’s xComp% was just 43.9%, the lowest of any QB to play in Week 6 by nearly 10%. Also, Jameis Winston had the lowest time to throw at 2.31 seconds per Next Gen Stats. Against a Saints defense just looking to keep the clock moving, McCarthy had 2.85 seconds.
CJ Stroud has been tremendous this season and the Giants are 31st in yards per carry allowed, so Stroud and the passing game might even get a little bit of help from the rushing attack here, which should make him even more dangerous. Like I said, burning a holiday team is tough, but the Texans are 85% to win per PoolGenius, 14% higher than any other team.
Pick: Texans
Teams Used: Jaguars, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Vikings, Bengals, 49ers
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