It’s time for Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 4 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 4 NFL best bets and Week 4 NFL player props.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for NFL best bets from all of our analysts
Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders – 9:30 am ET (London)
The Colts might be down Alec Pierce, but I like the way this offense operates. Indianapolis lost a tough one in Kansas City two weeks ago, but the team put up 30 points against a Chiefs team that is sixth in the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed (-0.077) this year. It’s just hard to stop the Colts once Jonathan Taylor gets going on the ground. He puts Indianapolis in a ton of manageable third-and-short situations. Of course, Washington is a top-five team in Rush EPA/Play Allowed (-0.318) right now. The Commanders have done a good job of stuffing opponents thus far. But they haven’t seen an offensive line quite like this, and they haven’t faced a running back this efficient. Also, if Washington is selling out to stop the run, Daniel Jones should be able to do some real damage through the air — especially when looking Josh Downs’ way.
I also happen to love the Commanders to put up points on the Colts defense. Marcus Mariota is an excellent backup, so Washington’s offense isn’t going to completely stall out with Jayden Daniels injured. Mariota played well in relief of Daniels two games ago, and he threw for three touchdowns in his start last week. He’s accurate, he understands the offense, and he’s still a threat with his legs. He’s also up against a Colts defense that is 30th in the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed (0.124).
Honestly, this might not seem like the most enticing standalone game, but I think it’s going to deliver some early-morning excitement. Two shaky defenses should mean a real shot at a shootout. Also, since 2024, the Over is 15-1 when Washington is an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The average total points scored in such games is 58.2 points per game.
Bet: Over 46.5 (-115)
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans – 1:00 pm ET
We haven’t seen anything from Houston this season, but a bounce-back performance should be coming soon. I don’t expect the Texans to completely stifle a good Cowboys offense, but I do know that Houston is much better than its No. 19 ranking in EPA/Play Allowed (0.012) this year. This is a Texans defense that has been elite for years, and none of the moves made in the offseason should have resulted in this type of drop-off. That said, look for Houston to start playing some much better defense, and we could see it start with a decent showing against Dak Prescott and Co.
I also love any offense in a matchup with the Cowboys defense, as Dallas is at the bottom of the league in EPA/Play Allowed (0.193). The Cowboys made some moves to address their miserable defense from last season, but it doesn’t look like any of them have worked. So, this should be a pretty strong matchup for CJ Stroud. Of course, Stroud has issues as a passer, but he’s reliable when he has time to get his feet set. That’s a good thing as Stroud prepares to face a defense that is 31st in Pass Rush Win Rate (40%). He should have plenty of time.
This is also a massive desperation spot for Houston. I can’t imagine Dallas is thrilled to be sitting at 1-2 right now, but Houston’s season might be over if the team drops this one to fall to 0-4.
Bet: Texans ML (-136)
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants – 1:00 pm ET
Jameis Winston has been pretty buttoned up since taking over for Jaxson Dart, but I imagine he’ll be slinging it around a bit here. This season, the Cardinals are allowing 247.0 passing yards per game, and their two starting corners have an average PFF grade of 52.1. New York has been conservative with Winston so far, opting to lean heavily into a ground-and-pound approach. However, the Giants need to play the matchup, and this is one that calls for some passing. Arizona is a top-10 team in pass frequency. So, if the Cardinals are letting Jacoby Brissett air it out, the Giants will have no choice but to let Winston do the same.
I know Winston hasn’t yet thrown for a score, and he also hasn’t eclipsed 118 passing yards in a game. But we all know that Winston is a gunslinger, and you don’t have to go back too far to find a box score in which he threw for 366 yards and two touchdowns. That was November 23, 2025, when Winston got involved in a shootout with the Lions.
Bet: Winston Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-115) & Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+125)
Additional Week 3 Best Bets
Browns ML (+125 – 1.5 units) vs. Steelers + Watson Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+285 – 0.5 units) – Check out my Thursday Night Football Preview!
Week 3 Picks
Kyle Pitts Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114) vs. Packers
Kyle Pitts Alt Receiving Yards 50+ (+212 – 0.25 units) vs. Packers
PARLAY: Falcons Alt +10.5 vs. Packers & Lions ML vs. Jets (-118 – 1.5 units)
PARLAY: Panthers ML vs. Browns & Colts Alt +8.5 vs. Texans (+117)
Justin Herbert Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-111) vs. Bills
Jaguars -2.5 (-120) vs. Patriots
Giants -2.5 (-118) vs. Titans
Derrick Henry Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-135) vs. Cowboys
Broncos ML (+127 – 1.5 units) vs. Rams
Eagles-Bears Over 41.5 (-105 – 1.5 units)
Case Keenum Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+210 – 0.5 units) vs. Eagles
2026 NFL Record: 16-17 (+0.07 units)
