The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 12. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

NFL Streaks Betting System #13: NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 11-64 SU and 48-26-1 ATS (64.9%) as double-digit road underdogs since ’06.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+10.5 at WAS)

Miami is on 9-2-1 ATS run hosting New England
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-7.5 vs. NE)

Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 37-16 since 2021, 69.8%, +19.4 Units, 36.6% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): TB-NYG (o/u at 41.5), ARI-SEA (o/u at 47.5)

LA Chargers are 11-2 Under the total in the last 13 Monday Night Football appearances
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-LAC (o/u at 50)

Teams that win by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have not been good bets in the follow-up contest, going 22-17 SU but 13-25-1 ATS (34.2%) when favored in their last 39 opportunities.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-7.5 at IND)

BALTIMORE is 13-12 SU and 18-6 ATS vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7% since 2020
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-2.5 at LAC)

DENVER is 17-3 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-LVR (o/u at 41)

Since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 43-34 SU but 28-48-1 ATS (36.8%).
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-3.5 at CLE)

#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS projections: HOUSTON -8 vs. TEN (+3.5 difference)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Here are the systems with updated language and records we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. The record for this year has been 34-28 AYS, including 21-9 ATS backing road teams. It’s hard to see this one continuing. We will continue to recommend that if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, DENVER, ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO, PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors. So far in 2024, this is 20-17, but the bulk of the season’s 96 divisional games are still yet to come.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, WASHINGTON, MIAMI, HOUSTON, DENVER, ARIZONA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 96-114 ATS (45.7%), but 20-15 ATS in 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, WASHINGTON, MIAMI, HOUSTON, DENVER, ARIZONA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups have actually been quite sharp, as this majority group is 60-50 ATS (54.5%), performing at nearly the exact same level in each season. This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, KANSAS CITY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 108-123 ATS (46.7%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog. However, this system is 28-18 ATS for 2024, a major factor as to why bettors are doing well overall. I suspect if (or when) this turns, DK will regain the advantage.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY, TAMPA BAY, DENVER, PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) and 76-94 ATS (44.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO

The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle has backed a team in a money line wager but not real strongly (in the 40%-60%) range, they have really struggled in 2024, going 16-26 for -13.71 units of loss, a ROI of -32.6%. It seems that conviction is an important thing when majority groups get together. If it seems as if the DK betting public might be “guessing” as to who wins, fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI ML, ARIZONA ML

NFL DK Betting Splits system #10: Super majority handle bettors of more than 75% have also struggled in games when backing bigger favorites on money lines. In games with point spreads of -4.5 or higher (approx. -225 or more ML), this super majority group has gone just 23-13 but for -15.53 units of loss, an ROI of -43.1% in ‘24. Public bettors tend to look at these games as more “automatic” wagers, and as you can tell, they aren’t.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT ML, KANSAS CITY ML, TAMPA BAY ML, HOUSTON ML, DENVER ML

NFL DK Betting Splits system #11: Majority number of bets groups have been at their best in 2024 on money lines in the Sunday afternoon games when backing small favorites (4 points or less, and approximately -220 or less). These groups boast an impressive 33-10 record for +18.93 units of profit and an ROI of +44%! These include the games in the 1:00 p.m. ET-4:30 p.m. ET starting slots, and with more choices at these times, bettors are faring well.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA ML

These next systems cover totals…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #12: Since 2022, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tic higher. Since mid-2023, majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! It’s in the higher totaled games that they typically fare worse.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – KC-CAR, MIN-CHI
UNDER – PIT-CLE, TB-NYG, TEN-HOU, DEN-LVR

NFL DK Betting Splits system #13: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of bets has also produced a 54-39 (58.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-CLE, DET-IND, DAL-WAS, TB-NYG, TEN-HOU, DEN-LVR, SF-GB

NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for super majority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): KC-CAR, BAL-LAC

NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): KC-CAR

*NEW* NFL Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams and their coaches/quarterbacks in recent years of action:

(111) PITTSBURGH at (112) CLEVELAND
* PITTSBURGH is 34-11 Under the total vs. poor teams with point differentials <=-4.5 PPG since 2013
* PITTSBURGH is 30-7 Under the total as a road favorite since 2014
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is 30-16 SU but 13-31 ATS vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG since 2011
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is 11-2 Under the total in his last 13 November starts
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is on a 3-7 SU and 1-9 ATS skid with his team on short rest (<7 days)
Systems Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-3.5 at CLE), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 37)

* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 19-9 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 37)

(267) ARIZONA at (268) SEATTLE
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is just 2-7 SU and ATS in his last nine starts as a favorite
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (*if they become a favorite at SEA, +1 currently*)

* SEATTLE is 19-7 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2011
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 47.5)

(257) DALLAS at (258) WASHINGTON
* DALLAS is 17-18 SU and 10-24 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2010
* DALLAS’s Mike McCarthy is just 13-31-1 SU and 14-31 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2017
Systems Match: FADE DALLAS (+10.5 at WAS)

* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 15-29 ATS (34.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of WASHINGTON (-10.5 vs. DAL)

(265) DENVER at (266) LAS VEGAS
* DENVER is 17-3 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017
* DENVER’s Sean Payton is 35-17 Under the total when coming off a double-digit win since 2013
* DENVER is 96-63 Under the total (60.4%) since 2015
Systems Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 41)

* LAS VEGAS is 27-8 Over the total vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2013
* LAS VEGAS is 24-14 ATS (63.2%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
Systems Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS (+5.5 vs. DEN), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 41)

(251) DETROIT at (252) INDIANAPOLIS
* DETROIT is 14-4 SU and 15-3 ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-7.5 at IND)

* INDIANAPOLIS is 16-16 SU and 23-9 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015
* INDIANAPOLIS is 24-20 SU and 32-11 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2010
Systems Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (+7.5 vs. DET)

(253) KANSAS CITY at (254) CAROLINA
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on 14-3 SU and 12-4 ATS surge in non-conference games
* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 31-2 SU but 12-20-1 ATS (37.5%) in his last 33 games as a favorite of more than 7 points.
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of KANSAS CITY (-10.5 at CAR)

* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is 4-17 SU and 7-13 ATS in the last 20 starts as an underdog
* CAROLINA is 15-28 ATS (34.9%) at home since 2019* CAROLINA is on 1-12 SU and ATS slide vs. elite teams with PPG differentials >=+4.5
Systems Match: FADE CAROLINA (+10.5 vs. KC)

(255) MINNESOTA at (256) CHICAGO
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 77-55 SU and 85-47 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is 24-8 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is 5-11 SU and 3-13 ATS in the last 16 starts vs. teams with losing records
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-3.5 at CHI), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 39)

* CHICAGO is 8-20 SU and ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
* CHICAGO’s Matt Eberflus is on a 16-11 Over the total surge when coming off an outright loss
* CHICAGO’s Matt Eberflus is on a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS streak at home
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of CHICAGO (+3.5 vs MIN), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 39)

(261) NEW ENGLAND at (262) MIAMI
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is on 12-4 SU and ATS surge with his team coming off a home win
* MIAMI is on 29-16 SU and 29-15 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) is 22-8 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) in home games
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
Systems Match: PLAY MIAMI (-7.5 vs NE)

(271) PHILADELPHIA at (272) LA RAMS
* PHILADELPHIA is 17-5 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 18-7 Under the total in his last 25 road games
Systems Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER of PHI-LAR (o/u at 49)

* LA RAMS’s Sean McVay is just 9-14 SU and 6-15 ATS in its last 23 November games
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 32-61 SU and 33-58 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
* LA RAMS’s Matthew Stafford is 8-28 SU and 12-23 ATS as a home underdog since 2011
Systems Match: FADE LA RAMS (+2.5 vs. PHI)

(269) SAN FRANCISCO at (270) GREEN BAY
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 24-12 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 41-27 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
Systems Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER of SF-GB (o/u at 47.5)

* GREEN BAY is 88-19 SU and 67-38 ATS as a home favorite since 2009
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 10-3 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 15-12 SU and 8-19 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-2 vs SF), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 47.5)

(259) TAMPA BAY at (260) NY GIANTS
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is just 4-12 SU and 3-12 ATS when his team plays with extra rest (>7 days) since 2017
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is on 12-2 Under the total run as a road favorite
Systems Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-5.5 at NYG), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 41.5)

* NY GIANTS are 11-7 SU and 14-3 ATS when coming off an upset loss since 2012
* NY GIANTS are 22-4 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
* NY GIANTS are 51-25 Under the total (67.1%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 15-6 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll boasts a decent 11-13 SU and 15-10 ATS record when coming off an outright loss since 2022
Systems Match: PLAY NY GIANTS (+5.5 vs. TB), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 41.5)

(263) TENNESSEE at (264) HOUSTON
* TENNESSEE is 20-10 SU and 20-9 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015
* TENNESSEE is on 6-22 SU and 6-21-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TENNESSEE (+8 at HOU)

* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 7-0 Under the total streak as a home favorite
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 12-4 Under the total in the last 16 games with his team coming off a win
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 40.5)

(273) BALTIMORE at (274) LA CHARGERS
* BALTIMORE is 13-12 SU and 18-6 ATS vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7% since 2020
* BALTIMORE is 41-22 ATS (65.1%) in road/neutral games since 2017
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-2.5 at LAC)

* LA CHARGERS are 61-29 UNDER the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
System Match: PLAY UNDER in BAL-LAC (o/u at 51)

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: KC-CAR(+10.5), TEN(+8.5)-HOU, NE(+7.5)-MIA, ARI-SEA(-1))

– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 155-181-10 ATS (46.1%). Road/Neutral games – 179-161-9 ATS (52.6%).
System Matches: FADE – CAROLINA, SEATTLE

– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 28-45 SU and 34-38-1 ATS (47.2%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE – NEW ENGLAND

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: DAL-WAS(-10.5), BAL-LAC(+2.5))

– Like the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 86-116-1 ATS (42.6%). Road/Neutral games – 101-107-1 ATS (48.6%).
System Matches: FADE – WASHINGTON, LA CHARGERS

– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 92-68 SU but just 57-92-11 ATS, for 38.3%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 81-187 SU and 130-131-7 ATS (49.8%).
System Match: FADE – WASHINGTON 

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington), Drake Maye (New England), and Bo Nix (Denver), although others could join them down the road.

(Games this week: MIN-CHI(+3.5), DAL-WAS(-10.5), NE(+7.5)-MIA, DEN(-5.5)-LVR)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late-season woes
For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in weeks 10-15, as they are just 98-150 SU and 105-133-10 ATS (44.1%) in that time span.
System Matches: FADE – CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, NEW ENGLAND, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 116-113 ATS (50.7%) in home games but just 99-121-2 ATS (45%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 33-96 SU and 54-73-2 ATS (42.5%).
System Match: FADE – DENVER, NEW ENGLAND

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 36-10 SU and 33-12-1 ATS (73.3%).
System Match: PLAY – WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as road chalk
Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as road favorites, going 23-20 SU but 19-23-1 ATS (45.2%).
System Match: FADE – DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional and non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 43-97 SU and 58-78-4 ATS (42.6%) versus divisional opponents.
System Matches: FADE – CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, NEW ENGLAND, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 150 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 50-103 SU and 68-83-2 ATS (45%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE – CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, NEW ENGLAND 

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team.

(Game this week: PIT(-3.5)-CLE)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 24-34 SU and 24-33-1 ATS (42.1%) in their last 58 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 10-18-1 ATS (35.7%) in their last 29 Monday Night contests.
System Match: FADE – PITTSBURGH

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Veteran quarterbacks have been atrocious in the road favorite role with new teams
Since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 43-34 SU but 28-48-1 ATS (36.8%).
System Match: FADE – PITTSBURGH

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NFL betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
Alternatively to #6 above, NFL teams that win by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have not been good bets in the follow-up contest, going 22-17 SU but 13-25-1 ATS (34.2%) when favored in their last 39 opportunities.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-7.5 at IND)

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 35-39 SU and 42-30-2 ATS (58.3%) in the last 74.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-3.5 at CLE)

There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 and later are 40-25 SU and 38-25-2 ATS (60.3%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+3.5 vs. PIT)

Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 5-20 SU and 8-17 ATS (32%) in their last 25, scoring just 15.3 PPG. In terms of totals, 16 of the last 23 (69.6%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
Systems Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+3.5 vs PIT), also PLAY UNDER in PIT-CLE (o/u at 37)

A long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 19-17 SU but 14-22 ATS (38.9%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+3.5 vs. PIT)

Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 25-32 SU and 20-36-1 ATS (35.7%).
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+3.5 vs. PIT)

Good TNF Team Trends
Cleveland 6 straight wins, 4-1-1 ATS
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+3.5 vs PIT)

Bad TNF Team Trends
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU and ATS in the last five
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-3.5 at CLE)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 18-21 SU and 23-14-2 ATS (62.2%) dating back to 2017.
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+2.5 vs. PHI)

Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2%) in their last 35, but those coming off a win are on a current 23-5 SU and 18-10 ATS (64.3%)
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+2.5 vs. PHI)

More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 16-25 SU and 17-24 ATS (41.5%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at LAR)

Good SNF Team Trends
Philadelphia 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS last seven
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at LAR)

UNDER the total SNF Team Trends
LA Rams 7-1 Under since 2019
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-LAR (o/u at 49)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 13-13 SU and 15-10-1 ATS (60%) dating back to September 2021. The last 24 of these games have seen Under the total go 18-4-2 (81.8%) as well, games producing just 37.5 PPG.
Systems Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS (+2.5 vs BAL), also PLAY UNDER in BAL-LAC (o/u at 50)

In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on an 17-18 SU and 21-14 ATS (60%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+2.5 vs. BAL)

Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 37-33 SU but just 25-43-2 ATS (36.8%) in the last 70 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+2.5 vs. BAL)

UNDER the total MNF Team Trends
LA Chargers 11-2 UNDER L13
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-LAC (o/u at 50)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Baltimore 27-11 SU and 24-13-1 ATS in the last 38
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-2.5 at LAC)

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Cleveland 16-7-1 primetime Under run
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CLE (o/u at 37)

LA Rams 14-5 Under surge
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-LAR (o/u at 49)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following NFL betting trend systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost the last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 26-50 SU but 49-26-1 ATS (65.3%) since 2007.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS (+10.5 at WAS), NY GIANTS (+5.5 vs. TB)

NFL Streaks Betting System #10: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 20-26 SU but 28-16-2 ATS (63.6%) in their last 46 games versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-10.5 at CAR)

NFL Streaks Betting System #11: NFL teams that have won their last five games outright or more have gone 51-12 SU and 40-21-2 ATS (65.6%) since 2003 as road favorites against divisional opponents.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-3.5 at CLE)

NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 56-37 SU but 34-55-4 ATS (38.2%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-5.5 at NYG)

NFL Streaks Betting System #13: NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 11-64 SU and 48-26-1 ATS (64.9%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+10.5 at WAS)

Post-Bye Week NFL Betting Trends and Systems 

The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.

Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 111-46 SU and 92-61-4 ATS since ’99, 60.1%, +24.9 Units, 16.3% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-5.5 at NYG)

Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 23-19 SU and 27-13-2 ATS since 2015, 67.5%, +12.7 Units, 31.8% ROI, Grade 66)
System Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+10.5 at KC)

Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 40-18 SU and 33-23-2 ATS since ’99, 58.9%, +7.7 Units, 13.8% ROI, Grade 59.
System Match (FADE ALL): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs. KC), NY GIANTS (+5.5 vs. TB)

Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 23-11 SU and 24-10 ATS since ’19, 70.6%, +13.0 Units, 38.2% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-5.5 at NYG)

Post-bye week system #8:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 37-16 since 2021, 69.8%, +19.4 Units, 36.6% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): TB-NYG (o/u at 41.5), ARI-SEA (o/u at 47.5)

Post-bye week system #10:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after losing in upset fashion before the bye. (Record: 31-14-1 Under since ’92, 68.9%, +15.6 Units, 34.7% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-NYG (o/u at 41.5)

** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals Post-Bye Week Game: 11/24 at Seattle Seahawks

– Arizona has gone 10-3 ATS in its L13 post-bye week road games, including 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS L4
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+1 at SEA)

– The Cardinals are on a 6-3 UNDER the total surge in post-bye week games vs. divisional rivals
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ARI-SEA (o/u at 47.5)

Carolina Panthers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/24 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

·  Carolina has gone just 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 post-bye week home games, but did win last year
System Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs KC)

·  Prior to last year’s 15-13 win over Houston, the prior nine Panthers’ post-bye week games all went Over the total
System Match (PLAY OVER): KC-CAR (o/u at 43)

New York Giants Post-Bye Week Game: 11/24 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

·  The Giants boast a 9-3 SU (6-6 ATS) record in their last 12 post-bye week home games
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+5.5 vs TB)

·  The Giants have gone Over the total in eight of their last 11 post-bye week games
System Match (PLAY OVER): TB-NYG (o/u at 41.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/24 at New York Giants

·  Tampa Bay has gone 4-0 Under the total in its last four post-bye week games
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-NYG (o/u at 41.5)

·  The Buccaneers are on a 0-4 SU and ATS run in post-bye week road games
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-5.5 at NYG)

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 13 seasons.

Best NFL rematch teams lately
Miami 12-5 ATS last 17, incl 7-2 in the last nine
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-7.5 vs NE)

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
Denver: 5-16 SU and 8-13 ATS in the last 21 tries
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-5.5 at LVR)

Worst NFL ROAD rematch teams lately
New England: surprising 5-13 SU and 4-14 ATS record in the last 18 road rematches
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+7.5 at MIA)

Worst NFL teams in rematches after winning the last game lately
Denver: 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS in the last 13 facing team beat in last
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-5.5 at LVR)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARIZONA +1 (+3.2)
2. LA RAMS +2.5 (+1.4)
3. LA CHARGERS +2.5 (+0.9)
4. NY GIANTS +6 (+0.8)
5. DALLAS +10.5 (+0.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -8 (+3.5)
2. KANSAS CITY -10.5 (+2.4)
3. MINNESOTA -3.5 (+2.0)
4. PITTSBURGH -3.5 (+1.5)
5. DETROIT -7.5 (+1.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +10.5 (+4.2)
2. INDIANAPOLIS +7.5 (+2.5)
3. ARIZONA +1 (+2.4)
4. NEW ENGLAND +7.5 (+1.7)
5. LAS VEGAS +6 (+1.5)

This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BALTIMORE -2.5 (+0.7)
2. GREEN BAY -2 (+0.4)
3. MINNESOTA -3.5 (+0.3)
4. HOUSTON -8 (+0.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TB-NYG OVER 41.5 (+4.1)
2. KC-CAR OVER 43 (+2.6)
3. MIN-CHI OVER 39 (+1.1)
4. SF-GB OVER 47.5 (+0.8)
5. ARI-SEA OVER 47.5 (+0.6)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-IND UNDER 50.5 (-3.7)
2. NE-MIA UNDER 46 (-3.1)
3. DEN-LVR UNDER 41 (-2.1)
4. BAL-LAC UNDER 51 (-1.8)
5. PHI-LAR UNDER 49 (-1.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NY GIANTS +6 (+3.9)
2. ARIZONA +1 (+3.7)
3. LA RAMS +2.5 (+3.5)
4. LAS VEGAS +6 (+3.1)
5. DALLAS +10.5 (+1.8)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KANSAS CITY -10.5 (+5.9)
2. BALTIMORE -2.5 (+1.8)
3. GREEN BAY -2 (+1.4)
4. MIAMI -7.5 (+1.2)
5. HOUSTON -8 (+0.2)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TB-NYG OVER 41.5 (+3.4)
2. PIT-CLE OVER 37 (+2.2)
3. SF-GB OVER 47.5 (+1.4)
4. KC-CAR OVER 43 (+0.8)
5. DAL-WAS OVER 45.5 (+0.3)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches:
1. NE-MIA UNDER 46 (-2.9)
2. BAL-LAC UNDER 51 (-2.1)
3. ARI-SEA UNDER 47.5 (-1.6)
4. TEN-HOU UNDER 40.5 (-1.3)
5. PHI-LAR UNDER 49 (-1.2)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(111) PITTSBURGH at (112) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 8-3 in the last 11 of the PIT-CLE series at Cleveland
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(267) ARIZONA at (268) SEATTLE
* The last five games of the ARI-SEA series in Seattle went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(257) DALLAS at (258) WASHINGTON
* DALLAS is on a 5-1 ATS surge versus Washington
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(265) DENVER at (266) LAS VEGAS
* RAIDERS have won the last eight ATS hosting Denver
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS ATS

(251) DETROIT at (252) INDIANAPOLIS
* Road teams are 5-0 ATS in the DET-IND series since 2008
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(253) KANSAS CITY at (254) CAROLINA
* Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the KC-CAR series
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS

(255) MINNESOTA at (256) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the MIN-CHI series at Chicago
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(261) NEW ENGLAND at (262) MIAMI
* MIAMI is on a 9-2-1 ATS run hosting New England
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(271) PHILADELPHIA at (272) LA RAMS
* PHILADELPHIA has won the last five ATS at LA Rams
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(269) SAN FRANCISCO at (270) GREEN BAY
* Road teams have won the last four ATS in the SF-GB series
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO ATS

(259) TAMPA BAY at (260) NY GIANTS
* The last three games of the TB-NYG series in New York went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(263) TENNESSEE at (264) HOUSTON
* HOUSTON is on an 11-3 ATS run hosting Tennessee since 2010
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(273) BALTIMORE at (274) LA CHARGERS
* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last six of the BAL-LAC series
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE ATS

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