The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 13. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board. 

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Dallas: 15-1 to the Over in the last 16 home rematch games
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYG-DAL (o/u at 37.5)

Teams that lose outright to divisional rivals as double-digit favorites have bounced back in the next contest with a 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%) record since 2015
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-5.5 vs. TEN)

Rookie quarterbacks are 19-5-1 ATS (79.2%) in their last 25 Monday Night contests.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE) 

Play on teams coming off their bye week and facing the Chargers. (Record: 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS since ’08, 93.3%, +12.9 Units, 88% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2 vs. LAC) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #6: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-28 SU but 31-10-2 ATS (75.6%) in their last 43 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+12.5 at KC)

NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their L4 games outright have kept the momentum going with a 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS (80%) record in their last 15 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10 vs. CHI) 

The Colts have gone 15-2-1 ATS in pre-bye week road games since 1993, but did lose in 2022 at Dallas, their most recent try
System Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-3 at NE)

TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is on 13-2 Under the total run as a road favorite
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TB-CAR (o/u at 46.5)

In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), UNDER the total is 29-13 (69%) in the last 42.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-BUF (o/u at 45) 

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Tuesday afternoon. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Here are the systems with updated language and records we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. The record for this year has been 34-28 AYS, including 21-9 ATS backing road teams. It’s hard to see this one continuing. We will continue to recommend that if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS, ATLANTA, CINCINNATI, INDIANAPOLIS, HOUSTON, ARIZONA, SEATTLE, TAMPA BAY, BUFFALO, DENVER 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors. So far in 2024, this is 20-17, but the bulk of the season’s 96 divisional games are still yet to come.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS, KANSAS CITY, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, TAMPA BAY 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 96-114 ATS (45.7%), but 20-15 ATS in 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS, LAS VEGAS, PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, TAMPA BAY 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups have actually been quite sharp, as this majority group is 60-50 ATS (54.5%), performing at nearly the exact same level in each season. This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY, WASHINGTON, LA CHARGERS, PHILADELPHIA, BUFFALO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 108-123 ATS (46.7%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS, INDIANAPOLIS, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, TAMPA BAY, TAMPA BAY, LA RAMS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LAS VEGAS, PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) and 76-94 ATS (44.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS, BUFFALO, DENVER

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, ATLANTA, CINCINNATI, ARIZONA

The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle has backed a team in a money line wager but not real strongly (in the 40%-60%) range, they have really struggled in 2024, going 16-26 for -13.71 units of loss, a ROI of -32.6%. It seems that conviction is an important thing when majority groups get together. If it seems as if the DK betting public might be “guessing” as to who wins, fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH ML, NEW ORLEANS ML 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #10: Super majority handle bettors of more than 75% have also struggled in games when backing bigger favorites on money lines. In games with point spreads of -4.5 or higher (approx. -225 or more ML), this super majority group has gone just 23-13 but for -15.53 units of loss, an ROI of -43.1% in 2024. Public bettors tend to look at these games as more “automatic” wagers, and as you can tell, they aren’t.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT ML, KANSAS CITY ML, WASHINGTON ML, HOUSTON ML, TAMPA BAY ML, BUFFALO ML, DENVER ML

NFL DK Betting Splits system #11: Majority number of bets groups have been at their best in 2024 on money lines in the Sunday afternoon games when backing small favorites (4 points or less, and approximately -220 or less). These groups boast an impressive 33-10 record for +18.93 units of profit and an ROI of +44%! These include the games in the 1:00 p.m. ET-4:30 p.m. ET starting slots, and with more choices at these times, bettors are faring well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS ML, MINNESOTA ML, SEATTLE ML 

These next systems cover totals… 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #12: Since 2022, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tic higher. Since mid-2023, majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! It’s in the higher totaled games that they typically fare worse.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NYG-DAL, LVR-KC, IND-NE, HOU-JAX, CLE-DEN
UNDER – SEA-NYJ 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #13: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of bets has also produced a 54-39 (58.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-CIN, ARI-MIN, SEA-NYJ, SF-BUF 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for super majority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-DET, LVR-KC, TEN-WAS, LAC-ATL, HOU-JAX, TB-CAR, LAR-NO, PHI-BAL, CLE-DEN 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-DET, LVR-KC, TEN-WAS, HOU-JAX, CLE-DEN

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

(305) CHICAGO at (306) DETROIT
* CHICAGO is 8-21 SU and 9-20 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
* CHICAGO is 26-44 ATS (37.1%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO’s Matt Eberflus is on a 17-11 Over the total surge when coming off an outright loss
Systems Match: FADE CHICAGO (+10 at DET), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 48.5)

* DETROIT is 15-4 SU and 16-3 ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
* DETROIT is 21-11 ATS (65.6%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 8-5 SU but 4-9 ATS as a home favorite of more than 7 points since 2018
Systems Match: 2 PLAYs, 1 FADE of DETROIT (-10 vs CHI) 

(307) NY GIANTS at (308) DALLAS
* NY GIANTS are 15-25 SU but 24-14 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 16-6 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog
* NY GIANTS are 52-25 Under the total (67.5%) since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY NY GIANTS (+3.5 at DAL), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 37.5)

* DALLAS is 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2017
* DALLAS is 23-7 SU and 21-9 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS is 18-18 SU and 11-24 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2010
* DALLAS’s Mike McCarthy boasts a 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS record in the last 14 games vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more
Systems Match: 3 PLAYs, 1 FADE of DALLAS (-3.5 vs. NYG) 

(309) MIAMI at (310) GREEN BAY
* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is on 13-4 SU and ATS surge with his team coming off a home win
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in his last nine starts versus teams with winning records
* MIAMI is 28-17 ATS (62.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Systems Match: 2 PLAYs, 2 FADEs of MIAMI (+3.5 at GB)

* GREEN BAY is 89-19 SU and 68-38 ATS as a home favorite since 2009
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 16-12 SU and 9-19 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 11-3 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs MIA), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 47)

(313) LAS VEGAS at (314) KANSAS CITY
* LAS VEGAS is 20-5 UNDER the total as a divisional road underdog since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-KC (o/u at 42.5)

* KANSAS CITY is 71-38 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is 32-11 Under the total as a home favorite of 7 points or more since 2011
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes is 15-10 SU but just 5-19-1 ATS following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points since 2020
* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 32-2 SU but 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) in his last 34 games as a favorite of more than 7 points.
Systems Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-12.5 vs. LVR), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42.5)

(461) TENNESSEE at (462) WASHINGTON
* TENNESSEE is on a 7-22 SU and 7-21-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
* TENNESSEE is 10-0 UNDER the total when coming off an upset win since 2022
Systems Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+5.5 at WAS), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 44.5)

* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is on an 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 4-15 SU and 3-15 ATS vs. AFC since 2016
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 18-34 ATS (34.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADEs of WASHINGTON (-5.5 vs TEN)

(463) LA CHARGERS at (464) ATLANTA
* LA CHARGERS are on 22-8 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is 11-4 Over the total in the last 15 games when his team is coming off a non-divisional AFC loss
Systems Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER of LAC-ATL (o/u at 48)

* ATLANTA’s Raheem Morris is on an 11-14 SU and 9-16 ATS slide in home games
* ATLANTA’s Kirk Cousins is 18-12 SU and 20-8 ATS, with his team coming off a road loss since 2015
* ATLANTA is 15-32 ATS (31.9%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADEs of ATLANTA (+2.5 vs. LAC) 

(465) PITTSBURGH at (466) CINCINNATI
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on 29-19 SU and 34-12 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
* PITTSBURGH is 97-67 Under the total (59.1%) since 2015
Systems Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+3 at CIN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 47)

* CINCINNATI is 13-22 SU but 26-10 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on 12-8 SU and 15-5 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor boasts a 17-4 SU and 15-4 ATS record as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2022
Systems Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-3 vs. PIT) 

(467) INDIANAPOLIS at (468) NEW ENGLAND
* INDIANAPOLIS is 28-15 SU and 31-10 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss since 2011
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Shane Steichen is on 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS run vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
Systems Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (-3 at NE)

* NEW ENGLAND is 13-24-2 ATS (35.1%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+3 vs. IND) 

(469) HOUSTON at (470) JACKSONVILLE
* JACKSONVILLE is on a horrific 4-39 SU and 10-33 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is on 15-3 Under the total surge when coming off a loss to an NFC foe
* JACKSONVILLE’s Trevor Lawrence boasts a 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS record with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2022 (*if he plays this week)
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of JACKSONVILLE (+5 vs. HOU), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5) 

(471) ARIZONA at (472) MINNESOTA
* ARIZONA’s Jonathan Gannon is on 6-0 Over the total streak vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
* ARIZONA is 28-18 ATS (60.9%) as an underdog since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+3.5 at MIN), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 45)

* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 78-55 SU and 85-47-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 18-11 SU but only 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games as a home favorite
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 11-4 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is 24-9 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-3.5 vs ARI), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 45) 

(473) SEATTLE at (474) NY JETS
* SEATTLE’s Geno Smith is just 10-12 SU and 6-15-1 ATS in the last 22 starts vs. teams with lesser records
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-2 at NYJ)

* NY JETS are on 8-21 SU and 6-22 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss since 2011
* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 12-2 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
* Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS (75%) as a home underdog.
* NY JETS are 12-28 ATS (30%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADEs of NY JETS (+2 vs SEA), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 41.5)

(475) TAMPA BAY at (476) CAROLINA
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is on 13-2 Under the total run as a road favorite
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TB-CAR (o/u at 46.5)

* CAROLINA is 16-28 ATS (36.4%) at home since 2019
* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is 4-18 SU and 8-13 ATS in the last 21 starts as an underdog
Systems Match: FADE CAROLINA (+6 vs. TB)

(477) LA RAMS at (478) NEW ORLEANS
* LA RAMS are on 17-7 SU and 19-5 ATS December run since 2018
* LA RAMS are 23-15 ATS (60.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY LA RAMS (-2.5 at NO)

* NEW ORLEANS is on 14-1 Under the total run when playing with extra rest (>7 days)
* NEW ORLEANS’ Derek Carr is on 12-2 Over the total run vs. teams with a better record
* NEW ORLEANS is 23-40 ATS (36.5%) at home since 2017
Systems Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 vs LAR), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 49) 

(479) PHILADELPHIA at (480) BALTIMORE
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 18-8 UNDER the total in his L26 road games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in PHI-BAL (o/u at 50.5)

* BALTIMORE is 14-12 SU and 19-6 ATS vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7% since 2020
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 27-9 SU and 22-13 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 24-11 SU and 12-22 ATS as a single-digit home favorite since 2018
Systems Match: 2 PLAYs, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-3 vs. PHI)

(481) SAN FRANCISCO at (482) BUFFALO
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 24-13 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 42-27 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
Systems Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total in SF-BUF (o/u at 44.5) 

(483) CLEVELAND at (484) DENVER
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is on 7-18 SU and 6-17 ATS slide when coming off an outright win
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 20-9 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
Systems Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+5.5 at DEN), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 42)

* DENVER is 17-4 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017
* DENVER is 21-33 ATS (38.9%) as a favorite since 2017
Systems Match: FADE DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42) 

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington). 

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: TEN(+5.5)-WAS, IND-NE(+3), SEA(-2.5)-NYJ, TB-CAR(+6))

– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 157-181-10 ATS (46.4%). Road/Neutral games – 180-162-9 ATS (52.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, CAROLINA

– Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2013: Divisional games 117-129-6 ATS (47.6%), Non-conference games 94-88-7 ATS (51.6%). These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, SEATTLE

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: TEN-WAS(-5.5), LAC-ATL(+2))

– Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 86-118-1 ATS (42.2%). Road/Neutral games – 101-107-1 ATS (48.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, ATLANTA

– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 92-69 SU but just 57-93-11 ATS, for 38%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 81-188 SU and 130-132-7 ATS (49.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, LA CHARGERS

– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2014, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 79-80-1 ATS (49.7%) record in their first seasons. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 107-143-1 ATS (42.8%) in that same time span.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA 

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie that started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington), Drake Maye (New England), and Bo Nix (Denver), although others could join them down the road.

(Games this week: CHI(+10)-DET, TEN-WAS(-5.5), IND-NE(+3), CLE-DEN(-5.5))

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late-season woes
For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in weeks 10-15, as they are just 99-153 SU and 106-135-11 ATS (44%) in that time span.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, NEW ENGLAND, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 116-114-1 ATS (50.4%) in home games but just 100-122-2 ATS (45%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 34-97 SU and 55-74-2 ATS (42.6%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 19 games, going 19-117 SU and 52-80-4 ATS (39.4%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 36-11 SU and 33-13-1 ATS (71.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 44-100 SU and 59-80-5 ATS (42.4%) versus divisional opponents.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO

Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 48-57 SU but 60-44-1 ATS (57.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #12 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 18-18 SU and 23-11-2 ATS (67.6%) in their last 36 such tries. Moreover, they are 19-5-1 ATS (79.2%) in their last 25 Monday Night contests.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO, DENVER

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets), Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh), and Kirk Cousins (Atlanta).

(Games this week: LAC-ATL(+2), PIT(+3)-CIN, SEA-NYJ(+2.5)) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Veteran quarterbacks are best for their new teams in the month of December
I just showed how these veteran QBs in new places struggle a bit out of the gate. Well, like should be expected, these QBs play best in the key month of December, when postseason berths are usually on the line, going 47-43 SU and 50-37-3 ATS (57.5%) since 2004.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH, NY JETS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 121-72 SU and 102-80-11 ATS (56%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, NY JETS 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as sizeable underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 43-70 SU but 64-44-5 ATS (59.3%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

HUGE DIVISIONAL UPSETS
Teams that lose outright to divisional rivals as double-digit favorites have bounced back in the next contest with a 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%) record since 2015
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-5.5 vs. TEN) 

DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
 NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 20-35 SU but 35-20 ATS (63.6%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+5 vs HOU)

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·  Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 35-40 SU and 42-31-2 ATS (57.5%) in the last 75.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+3.5 at GB)

·  There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 41-25 SU and 39-25-2 ATS (60.9%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs. MIA) 

Good TNF Team Trends
Green Bay 6-4 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs. MIA) 

UNDER the total TNF Team Trends
Miami 8-2-1 Under in the last 11
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-GB (o/u at 47) 

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· The biggest home favorites on Sunday nights, or those laying 7 points or more, have been solid of late, going 17-3 SU and 11-9 ATS (55%) in their last 20 tries. Prior to that they were on a 5-13-1 ATS skid.
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-7 vs. SF)

·  In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 26-24 SU and 19-29-2 ATS (39.6%) in the L50. Under the total is also 29-13 (69%) in the last 42.
Systems Match: FADE BUFFALO (-7 vs SF), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 45)

·  SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 10-25 SU and 11-24 ATS (31.4%) in their last 35 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+7 at BUF)

·  Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2%) in their last 35, but those coming off a win are on a current 23-6 SU and 18-11 ATS (62.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-7 vs. SF) 

Good SNF Team Trends
Buffalo 6-2 SU since 2019
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO ML (-305 vs. SF) 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·  In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on an 17-19 SU and 21-15 ATS (58.3%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE)

· In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 11-14 SU and 16-9 ATS (64%) in their last 25 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+5.5 at DEN)

· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 37-34 SU but just 25-44-2 ATS (36.2%) in the last 71 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE)

Bad MNF Team Trends                             
Denver 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE) 

UNDER the total MNF Team Trends
Cleveland 4-2-1 Under run
Denver the last seven Under
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DEN (o/u at 42)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Buffalo 15-6 SU and 12-9 ATS primetime run
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-7 vs. SF)

Green Bay 15-7 SU and 16-6 ATS in the last 22
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs. MIA)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 8-20 SU and 9-17-2 ATS last 28
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE)

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Cleveland 16-8-1 primetime Under run
Denver 17-4 Under since 2017
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DEN (o/u at 42)

Miami 12-2 to the Under
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-GB (o/u at 47)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost the last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 27-51 SU but 50-27-1 ATS (64.9%) since 2007.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+3.5 at DAL)

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-43 SU and 16-40-4 ATS (28.6%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+6 vs. TB) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 57-14 SU and 47-22-2 ATS (68.1%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3.5 vs. ARI) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #6: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-28 SU but 31-10-2 ATS (75.6%) in their last 43 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+12.5 at KC) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-74 SU but 57-30 ATS (65.5%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (+10 at DET), LAS VEGAS (+12.5 at KC) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #8: NFL teams that have lost their last five games ATS but were playing against a team whom they have at least an equal won-lost record with have gone 19-15 SU and 21-13 ATS (61.8%) in their last 34 tries.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-12.5 vs. LVR)

NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 57-37 SU but 35-55-4 ATS (38.9%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-5.5 vs. TEN) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #13: NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 12-64 SU and 49-26-1 ATS (65.3%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (+10 at DET), LAS VEGAS (+12.5 at KC) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS (80%) record in their last 15 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10 vs. CHI) 

The following NFL betting trends and systems are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason 

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 54-23-2 ATS since 2013, 70.1%, +28.7 Units, 37.3% ROI, Grade 73)
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-5 at JAX)

Pre-bye week system #3
Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 72-37-2 ATS since 2010, 66.1%, +30.2 Units, 27.7% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-5.5 vs. TEN), NEW ENGLAND (+3 vs. IND), BALTIMORE (-3 vs. PHI), DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE)

Pre-bye week system #4
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 35-22-3 ATS since 2015, 61.4%, +10.8 Units, 18.9% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+3 vs. IND) 

Pre-bye week system #6
Play against any home team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 21-25 SU and 27-19 ATS since 1996, 58.7%, +6.1 Units, 13.3% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE) 

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens Pre-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
· Baltimore is just 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 pre-bye week home games
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-3 vs. PHI)

·The Ravens are on 7-4 Under the total run in pre-bye week games
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-BAL (o/u at 50.5) 

Denver Broncos Pre-Bye Week Game: MON 12/2 vs. Cleveland Browns
· Denver is 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 pre-bye week games overall
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE)

· Outright winners are on 17-game ATS winning streak in Denver pre-bye week home games

Houston Texans Pre-Bye Week Game: 12/1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
· Houston boasts a 14-8 SU and 16-6 ATS record in pre-bye week games since its inception in 2002, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. divisional foes
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-5 at JAX)

·  Houston has gone 7-1-1 Under the total in its last eight pre-bye week games, combined score 34.1 PPG
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-JAX (o/u at 43.5)

Indianapolis Colts Pre-Bye Week Game: 12/1 at New England Patriots
·  Indianapolis is on a 9-2 SU and ATS run in pre-bye week games overall
System Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-3 at NE)

· The Colts have gone 15-2-1 ATS in pre-bye week road games since 1993, but did lose in 2022 at Dallas, their most recent try
System Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-3 at NE)

New England Patriots Pre-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Indianapolis Colts
· The Patriots are on a 6-1 Under the total run in pre-bye week games, scoring just 15.3 PPG
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-NE (o/u at 42.5)

·  New England has won its last five pre-bye week games at home, both SU and ATS, and all against non-divisional AFC foes
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+3 vs. IND)

Washington Commanders Pre-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Tennessee Titans
· Dating back to 1993, Washington is just 10-23-1 ATS in pre-bye week games overall
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-5.5 vs. TEN)

· Washington has gone just 1-7-1 SU and 2-7 ATS in its last nine pre-bye week games vs. AFC opponents, scoring just 15.6 PPG
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-5.5 vs. TEN)

Post-Bye Week NFL Betting Trends and Systems

The following NFL betting trends and systems are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason. 

Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 24-19 SU and 27-14-2 ATS since 2015, 65.9%, +11.6 Units, 28.3% ROI, Grade 66)
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+2 vs. LAC), NY JETS (+2 vs. SEA), BUFFALO (-7 vs. SF) 

Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 42-18 SU and 34-24-2 ATS since ’99, 58.6%, +7.6 Units, 13.1% ROI, Grade 59)
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+2 vs. LAC), NY JETS (+2 vs. SEA), JACKSONVILLE (+5 vs. HOU), NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 vs. LAR) 

Post-bye week system #7:
Play on teams coming off their bye week and facing the Chargers. (Record: 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS since 2008, 93.3%, +12.9 Units, 88% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2 vs. LAC)

Post-bye week system #10:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after losing in upset fashion before the bye. (Record: 32-14-1 Under since ’92, 69.6%, +16.6 Units, 36.1% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-NYJ (o/u at 41.5)

** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons Post-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
· Atlanta is on a 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS run in its last 20 post-bye week games
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2 vs. LAC)

· The Falcons are 11-4-1 Under the total in their last 16 post-bye week home games.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-ATL (o/u at 48)

Buffalo Bills Post-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. San Francisco 49ers
·  Buffalo is on a 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS run in post-bye week games and is 20-10-2 ATS dating back to 1993
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-7 vs. SF)

· The Bills are on a 4-0 Under the total run in post-bye week games, allowing just 15.5 PPG
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-BUF (o/u at 44.5)

Cincinnati Bengals Post-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
· The Bengals are on a 3-0 SU and ATS surge in post-bye week games after losing their prior five
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-3 vs. PIT)

· Cincinnati has gone 4-0 Over the total in its last four post-bye week divisional games, allowing 36 PPG
System Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-CIN (o/u at 47)

Jacksonville Jaguars Post-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Houston Texans
· Jacksonville is on a 9-5 ATS post-bye week run at home, but did lose 34-3 last year to the 49ers
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+5 vs HOU)

· The Jaguars are 3-0 Over the total in their last three post-bye week divisional games
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-JAX (o/u at 43.5)

New Orleans Saints Post-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
· New Orleans has lost five straight post-bye week games ATS
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 vs. LAR)

· The Saints are 5-1 Under the total in their last six post-bye week games
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-NO (o/u at 49)

New York Jets Post-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Seattle Seahawks
· Like many other situations of late, the Jets have struggled in post-bye week games, 3-12 SU and 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (+2 vs. SEA)

· The Jets are 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six post-bye week games versus NFC foes
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (+2 vs. SEA) 

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 13 seasons

Best NFL rematch teams lately
– Dallas: 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS since 2017
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4 vs. NYG)

Best NFL HOME rematch teams lately
– Jacksonville: 12-4 SU and 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 home rematches
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+5 vs. HOU)

Worst NFL ROAD rematch teams lately
–  Houston: 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS in the last 13 road rematches
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5 at JAX)

–  Las Vegas: 4-9 SU and ATS in the last 13 road
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+12.5 at KC)

Best NFL teams in rematches after winning last game lately
–  Dallas: on 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS run following up head-to-head series win
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4 vs NYG)

High-scoring rematch teams
– Kansas City: 14-10 Over run
System Match (PLAY OVER): LVR-KC (o/u at 42.5)

–  Dallas: 15-1 to the Over in the last 16 home rematch games
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYG-DAL (o/u at 37.5)

Low-scoring rematch teams
–  Las Vegas: 14-3 Under in the last 17 road rematches, scoring 15.5 PPG
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-KC (o/u at 42.5)

Noteworthy NFL head-to-head second-time (and third) around trends
–  Kansas City: 10-1 SU in rematch games vs. Raiders (8-3 ATS)
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-12.5 vs. LVR)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (+3.6)
2. ATLANTA +2.5 (+2.8)
3(tie). PITTSBURGH +3 (+2.5)
NY JETS +2 (+2.5)
5. NY GIANTS +3.5 (+2.0) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT -10 (+5.1)
2. DENVER -5.5 (+4.1)
3. TAMPA BAY -6 (+3.8)
4. BUFFALO -7 (+3.6)
5. GREEN BAY -3.5 (+2.3) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN FRANCISCO +7 (+4.4)
2. NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (+3.7)
3. CAROLINA +6 (+1.3)
4. ATLANTA +2.5 (+0.9)
5. PHILADELPHIA +3 (+0.8) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GREEN BAY -3.5 (+3.7)
2(tie). KANSAS CITY -12 (+3.6)
DENVER -5.5 (+3.6)
4. HOUSTON -5 (+2.1)
5. DETROIT -10 (+1.3) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TEN-WAS OVER 44.5 (+6.5)
2. HOU-JAX OVER 43.5 (+6.0)
3(tie). LVR-KC OVER 42.5 (+3.2)
SF-BUF OVER 44.5 (+3.2)
5. PIT-CIN OVER 47 (+2.0) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-ATL UNDER 48 (-5.2)
2. LAR-NO UNDER 49 (-5.0)
3. NYG-DAL UNDER 37 (-4.2)
4. CLE-DEN UNDER 42 (-3.8)
5. IND-NE UNDER 42.5 (-3.5) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NY JETS +2 (+4.6)
2. NY GIANTS +3.5 (+3.4)
3. ATLANTA +2.5 (+2.8)
4. PITTSBURGH +3 (+2.2)
5. JACKSONVILLE +5 (+1.4) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TAMPA BAY -6 (+4.2)
2. DETROIT -10 (+3.9)
3. GREEN BAY -3.5 (+3.3)
4. BALTIMORE -3 (+0.9)
5. DENVER -5.5 (+0.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TEN-WAS OVER 44.5 (+3.2)
2. SEA-NYJ OVER 41.5 (+2.3)
3. LVR-KC OVER 42.5 (+2.2)
4(tie). PHI-BAL OVER 50.5 (+2.1)
SF-BUF OVER 44.5 (+2.1) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-DET UNDER 48.5 (-5.1)
2. CLE-DEN UNDER 42 (-1.6)
3. LAR-NO UNDER 49 (-1.2)
4. LAC-ATL UNDER 48 (-1.1)
5. IND-NE UNDER 42.5 (-0.8)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(305) CHICAGO at (306) DETROIT
* UNDERDOGS are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the CHI-DET series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS 

(309) MIAMI at (310) GREEN BAY
* GREEN BAY is on a 5-1 SU and ATS surge versus Miami
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS 

(307) NY GIANTS at (308) DALLAS
* The last five games of the NYG-DAL series in Dallas went Over total, avg 60.2 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(313) LAS VEGAS at (314) KANSAS CITY
* Under the total is 11-5 in the LVR-KC series in Kansas City since 2008
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(471) ARIZONA at (472) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is on a 6-0-1 ATS run versus Arizona
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS 

(469) HOUSTON at (470) JACKSONVILLE
* HOUSTON is on a 9-3 ATS run at Jacksonville
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS 

(467) INDIANAPOLIS at (468) NEW ENGLAND
* NEW ENGLAND has won the last five ATS hosting Indianapolis
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS 

(463) LA CHARGERS at (464) ATLANTA
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the LAC-ATL series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(477) LA RAMS at (478) NEW ORLEANS
* Home teams are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of the LAR-NO series
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(479) PHILADELPHIA at (480) BALTIMORE
* Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the PHI-BAL h2h series
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS 

(465) PITTSBURGH at (466) CINCINNATI
* Under the total is 6-2-1 in the last nine of the PIT-CIN series at Cincinnati
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(481) SAN FRANCISCO at (482) BUFFALO
* Favorites are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the SF-BUF series
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS 

(473) SEATTLE at (474) NY JETS
* SEATTLE has won their last five ATS versus NY Jets
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE ATS 

(475) TAMPA BAY at (476) CAROLINA
* Under the total is 8-3 in the last 11 of the TB-CAR rivalry in Carolina
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(461) TENNESSEE at (462) WASHINGTON
* Road underdogs are on a 7-0 ATS streak in the TEN-WAS series
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE ATS 

(483) CLEVELAND at (484) DENVER
* DENVER is on a 10-2-2 ATS run vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

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