The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 2. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Week 1 favorites of 6 points or more that lost their games have bounced back with a record of 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS (76%) in Week 2 since 2002 (+12.4 units, ROI: 49.6%, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5 at KC)

In Week 2 games between teams that are both 0-1 ATS, underdogs are on a phenomenal run of 18-21 SU but 26-11-2 ATS (70.3%) since 2014 (+14.8 units, ROI: 40%, Grade 68)
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): BUFFALO (+2.5 at MIA), NY GIANTS (+1.5 at WAS), TENNESSEE (+3.5 vs. NYJ), LAS VEGAS (+9 at BAL)

Teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under (65%) the total in Week 2 since 2005 (+14.8 units, ROI: 24.7%, Grade 63)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Buffalo-MIAMI (o/u at 48.5), Chicago-HOUSTON (o/u at 45.5)

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-CAR, CIN-KC

*LA RAMS have won the last nine ATS at Arizona
System Match: PLAY LA RAMS (+1 at ARI)

On Sunday Night Football, Chicago has seven straight outright and ATS losses, all by double-digits
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+6 at HOU)

In primetime games, Atlanta has 11 straight Unders
System Match: PLAY UNDER in ATL-PHI (o/u at 47) 

Veteran QBs on new teams are 8-17-1 ATS (32%) in their last 26 Monday Night contests.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+6.5 at PHI) 

This week’s #1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections: LAC-CAR OVER 38.5 (+4.6 difference) 

NFL betting trend systems turn Week 1 results into Week 2 profit

These NFL betting trend systems take into account the NFL Week 1 results and use them to build actionable betting concepts for Week 2 

1. Week 1 favorites of 6 points or more that lost their games have bounced back with a record of 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS (76%) in Week 2 since 2002 (+12.4 units, ROI.: 49.6%, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5 at KC)

2. Week 2 teams that scored 30+ points last week and are now playing as favorites of 6 points or less or are underdogs are 17-37 SU and 19-35 ATS (35.2%) since 2012 (-19.5 units, ROI: -36.1%, Grade 70)
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO (+2.5 at MIA), NEW ORLEANS (+6.5 at DAL), TAMPA BAY (+7 at DET), SAN FRANCISCO (-6 at MIN) 

3. Teams that beat their Week 1 point spread by 8 points or more in non-conference games are 20-10-3 Under (66.7%) the total in Week 2 since 2002 (+9.0 units, ROI.: 30%, Grade 64)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NEW ORLEANS-DALLAS (o/u at 45.5), SAN FRANCISCO-MINNESOTA (o/u at 46), PITTSBURGH-DENVER (o/u at 36.5)

4. Teams that lost on the point spread by more than 14 points in Week 1 divisional games are 16-9 SU and 15-9-1 ATS (62.5%) in Week 2 since ’07 (+5.1 units, ROI: 24.6%, Grade 60)
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+6.5 vs LAC)

5. Teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under (65%) the total in Week 2 since 2005 (+14.8 units, ROI: 24.7%, Grade 63)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Buffalo-MIAMI (o/u at 48.5), Chicago-HOUSTON (o/u at 45.5) 

6. Teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 have responded by going 47-28-3 ATS (62.7%) in Week 2 over the last 12 seasons (+16.2 units, ROI: 21.6%, Grade 58)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA (+6.5 vs. LAC), NY JETS (-3.5 at TEN), LAS VEGAS (+9 at BAL), CLEVELAND (+3.5 at JAX)

7. Teams whose opponent played in the weeknight season-opening game and thus have extra rest are 15-23 SU but 22-15-1 ATS (59.5%) in Week 2 since 2005 (+5.5 units, ROI: 14.9%, Grade 53)
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): LAS VEGAS (+9 at BAL), CINCINNATI (+5 at KC) 

8. Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 27-23 SU and 27-19-2 ATS (58.7%) since ’06 in Week 2 (+6.1 units, ROI: 13.3%, Grade 50)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CHARGERS (-6.5 at CAR), NEW ORLEANS (+6.5 at DAL)

9. In Week 2 games between teams that are both 0-1 ATS, underdogs are on a phenomenal run of 18-21 SU but 26-11-2 ATS (70.3%) since 2014 (+14.8 units, ROI: 40%, Grade 68)
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): BUFFALO (+2.5 at MIA), NY GIANTS (+1.5 at WAS), TENNESSEE (+3.5 vs. NYJ), LAS VEGAS (+9 at BAL)

10. In Week 2 games between teams that are both 1-0 ATS, underdogs also rule at the betting window, 19-26 SU but 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%) since 2012 (+8.3 units, ROI: 18.9%, Grade 60)
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): MINNESOTA (+6 vs. SF), TAMPA BAY (+7 at DET), NEW ORLEANS (+6.5 at DAL), DENVER (+2.5 vs. PIT)

11. Teams playing a second straight home game in Week 2 and are favored have gone 13-8 SU and but 5-16 ATS (27.3%) over the last 12 seasons (-12.6 units, ROI: -60%, Grade 65)
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-2.5 vs. BUF), DETROIT (-7 vs. TB), KANSAS CITY (-5 vs. CIN)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic NFL betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Now, here are the NFL betting trend systems with updated language and records heading into the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, LA CHARGERS, DALLAS, INDIANAPOLIS, SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE, NY JETS, WASHINGTON, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, WASHINGTON, ARIZONA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 76-99 ATS (43.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, WASHINGTON, LA RAMS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were actually quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CHARGERS, INDIANAPOLIS, SEATTLE, HOUSTON 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS, INDIANAPOLIS, SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE, NY JETS, PITTSBURGH

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 61-54 ATS (53%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY, LA RAMS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 61-81 ATS (43%) and 62-80 ATS (43.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2022 was 44.2, last year it dropped over a point to 43.0. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors rebounded incredibly in 2023, after going 28-53 ATS in 2022, they were. 44-24 ATS (64.7%) last year! We’ll see how that latter trend holds in 2024.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING ALL): OVER – BUF-MIA, TB-DET, LAR-ARI, CIN-KC, ATL-PHI

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of bets has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LVR-BAL, IND-GB, CLE-JAX, SEA-NE, NYJ-TEN, PIT-DEN, CHI-HOU, ATL-PHI 

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for super majority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 and 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 87-104 (45.5%) record.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-CAR, NO-DAL, TB-DET, NYG-WAS, CIN-KC

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-CAR, CIN-KC

NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems

This NFL betting trend material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington).

Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: LAC-CAR(+6.5), SEA-NE(+3.5), NYJ-TEN(+3.5))

– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 152-168-8 ATS (47.5%). Road/Neutral games – 173-151-7 ATS (53.4%).
System Matches: PLAY ROAD TEAMS– SEATTLE
FADE HOME TEAMS – CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE

– Ironically, its in the games where coaching figures to matter most (+6.5 to -6.5 lines) where rookie head coaches enjoy better point spread success rates. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 236-232-2 SU and 237-222-11 ATS (51.6%).
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE, TENNESSEE

– Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2013: Divisional games 112-122-6 ATS (47.9%), Conference games 123-116-4 ATS (51.5%), Non-conference games 90-80-5 ATS (52.9%). These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE, TENNESSEE

– Since 2013, in games #1-#4 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 82-78-6 ATS, good for 51.3%. In games #5-#12, they’ve gone 152-159-9 ATS (48.9%). To close the season in games #13-#17, the record has been 91-82-2 ATS (52.6%).
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE, TENNESSEE

  • – When coming off of losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 191-176-6 ATS (52%) since 2014. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse, 132-139-9 ATS (48.8%).
    System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, TENNESSEE
    FADE –NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE

Re-Tread Coach Systems
(Games this week: LAC(-6.5)-CAR, NYG-WAS(-1.5), ATL(+6.5)-PHI)

– Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 77-112 ATS (40.7%). Road/Neutral games – 92-102 ATS (47.4%).
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON

–  Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 76-64 SU but just 42-87-11 ATS, for 32.6%! As dogs (or pick em), 78-181 SU and 127-127-5 ATS (50%).
System Matches: FADE FAVORITES – LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON
SLIGHT PLAY UNDERDOGS – ATLANTA 

– The ATS results by game type are almost identical for the Division (44.9%)/Conference (44.0%)/ Non-conference (43.4%) scenarios for re-tread head coaches in their first seasons with new teams over the last decade. 

– Since 2014, in Weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 82-133-6 ATS (38.1%), while in Weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 87-81-10 ATS (51.8%).
System Matches: FADE – LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON, ATLANTA

– Since 2014, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 67-73 ATS (47.9%) record in their first seasons. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 101-139 ATS (42.1%) in that same time span.
System Matches: FADE – LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON, ATLANTA 

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These NFL betting trend systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie that started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2024 include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington), and Bo Nix (Denver), although others could join them down the road.
(Games this week: NYG-WSH(-1.5), PIT-DEN(+2.5), CHI(+6)-HOU))

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 168-302-2 SU (35.7%) and 220-246-6 ATS (47.2%). Furthermore, this past season saw the #1 pick, Bryce Young of the Panthers, guide his team to the worst won-lost percentage drop in his starts for any QB in the last 20 years.
System Matches: FADE – WASHINGTON, DENVER, CHICAGO

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #3 – Rookie quarterbacks have gotten off to very slow starts of late
As part of their overall recent struggles, rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early-season starters, going 3-20-1 SU and 7-16-1 ATS (30.4%) in their last 24 Week 1-3 games. They are also on a 23-9 Under the total (71.9%) run in their last 32 such contests.
System Matches: FADE – WASHINGTON, DENVER, CHICAGO, also PLAY UNDER in ALL 3 GAMES

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of late of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 108-105 ATS (50.7%) in home games but just 89-114 ATS (43.8%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 32-94 SU and 52-72-2 ATS (41.9%).
System Match: FADE – CHICAGO

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 15 games, going 15-109 SU and 46-75-3 ATS (38%).
System Match: NONE YET (watch for CHICAGO at HOUSTON)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 27-8 SU and 24-10-1 ATS (70.6%).
System Match: PLAY – WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional & non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks

· The breakdown of success level against Division, Conference, and Non-Conference opponents has been definitive for rookie starting quarterbacks. Here are those trends:

–  Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 39-92 SU and 52-75-4 ATS (40.9%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match: FADE – WASHINGTON

– Since 2018, rookie QBs are just 21-43 SU and 26-37-1 ATS (41.3%) versus non-conference foes.
System Match: FADE – CHICAGO

– Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 42-50 SU but 54-38 ATS (58.7%).
System Match: PLAY – DENVER ATS

 NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QB’s
 In their last 133 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 42-91 SU and 58-73-2 ATS (44.3%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE – WASHINGTON, DENVER 

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These NFL betting trend systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This year, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets), Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh – injured), and Kirk Cousins (Atlanta).

(Games this week: NYJ(3.5)-TEN, ATL(+6.5)-PHI)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Veteran quarterbacks start slow for their new teams
 It takes a little time for these veteran quarterbacks to find their footing with their new franchises. In fact, dating back to 2006, in the month of September, these guys have gone 38-26 Under the total (59.4%), averaging about 1.5 PPG less than usual offensively.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER – NYJ-TEN, ATL-PHI

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 19-33 SU and 19-32-1 ATS (37.3%) in their last 52 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 8-17-1 ATS (32%) in their last 26 Monday Night contests.
System Match: FADE – ATLANTA

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 77-62 SU but 77-60-2 ATS (56.2%).
System Matches: PLAY – NY JETS, ATLANTA

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 –Veteran QB’s have shown a tendency to lead their teams back well after losses
In their last 135 starts with their new teams coming off outright losses, veteran QBs have gone 70-65 SU and 75-57-3 ATS (56.8%). This trend dates back to 2016.
System Matches: PLAY – NY JETS, ATLANTA

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Veteran quarterbacks have been atrocious in the road favorite role with new teams
Since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 40-30 SU but 25-44-1 ATS (36.2%).
System Match: FADE – NY JETS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as sizeable underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 40-66 SU but 60-41-5 ATS (59.4%) when playing as underdogs of 3-points or more.
System Match: PLAY – ATLANTA

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NFL betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS THIS WEEK

TNF, SNF, & MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 31-33 SU and 38-24-2 ATS (61.3%) in the last 64.
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+2.5 at MIA)

· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 21-18 SU but 11-26-2 ATS (29.7%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 37-25 SU and 36-24-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-2.5 vs. BUF)

· A long running trend of Thursday night home field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 15-14 SU but 10-19 ATS (34.5%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-2.5 vs. BUF)

Under the total TNF Team Trends
Miami 7-2-1 Under in the last 10
System Match: PLAY UNDER in BUF-MIA (o/u at 48.5) 

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 15-12 SU and 10-17 ATS (37%) in their last 27 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-6 vs. CHI)

· In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 24-20 SU & 17-25-2 ATS (40.5%) in the last 44. Under the total is also 23-13 (63.9%) in the last 36.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-6 vs CHI), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 45.5)

· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 12-19 SU and 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%) in their last 31, but those coming off a win are on a current 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS (68.2%) surge.
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-6 vs CHI)

· More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 13-22 SU and 14-21 ATS (40%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+6 at HOU)

Bad SNF Team NFL Betting Trends

Chicago seven straight outright and ATS losses, all by double-digits
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+6 at HOU)

Houston 1-4-2 ATS in the last seven
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-6 vs. CHI)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on an 15-16 SU and 19-12 ATS (61.3%) surge since 2019.
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-6.5 vs. ATL)

· In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 9-11 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) in their last 20 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (+6.5 at PHI)

· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 30-28 SU but just 19-37-2 ATS (33.9%) in the last 58 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-6.5 vs. ATL)

UNDER the total MNF Team Trends
Philadelphia 11-3-1 Under in the last 15
System Match: PLAY UNDER in ATL-PHI (o/u at 47) 

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider: 

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Buffalo 12-5 SU and 9-8 ATS primetime run
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+2.5 at MIA)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Chicago 4-10 SU and ATS in the last 14
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+6 at HOU)

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends

Atlanta 11 straight Unders
System Match: PLAY UNDER in ATL-PHI (o/u at 47)

Miami 10-1 to the Under
System Match: PLAY UNDER in BUF-MIA (o/u at 48.5)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA RAMS +1 (+3.2)
2. NEW ENGLAND +3.5 (+3.1)
3. BUFFALO +2.5 (+2.2)
4. DENVER +2.5 (+1.4)
5. TAMPA BAY +7 (+1.3) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KANSAS CITY -5 (+2.2)
2. BALTIMORE -9 (+1.6)
3. WASHINGTON -1.5 (+1.1)
4. DALLAS -6.5 (+0.7)
5(tie). HOUSTON -6 (+0.4)
JACKSONVILLE -3 (+0.4) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TAMPA BAY +7 (+3.1)
2. TENNESSEE +3.5 (+1.8)
3. NEW ENGLAND +3.5 (+1.5)
4. ATLANTA +6.5 (+1.4)
5. DENVER +2.5 (+1.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BALTIMORE -9 (+2.9)
2. KANSAS CITY -5 (+1.5)
3. ARIZONA -1 (+1.4)
4. WASHINGTON -1.5 (+1.0)
5. JACKSONVILLE -3 (+0.9) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-CAR OVER 38.5 (+4.6)
2. SEA-NE OVER 37.5 (+2.6)
3. CHI-HOU OVER 45.5 (+2.5)
4. IND-GB OVER 40.5 (+2.4)
5. NYJ-TEN OVER 40.5 (+2.1) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SF-MIN UNDER 46 (-3.1)
2. CIN-KC UNDER 47.5 (-2.3)
3. NYG-WAS UNDER 44.5 (-1.9)
4. LAR-ARI UNDER 48.5 (-1.1)
5. NO-DAL UNDER 46.5 (-1.0) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA RAMS +1 (+3.6)
2. NEW ENGLAND +3.5 (+2.5)
3. TAMPA BAY +7 (+2.2)
4. BUFFALO +2.5 (+1.1)
5. ATLANTA +6.5 (+1.0) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. JACKSONVILLE -3 (+1.7)
2(tie). BALTIMORE -9 (+1.5)
KANSAS CITY -5 (+1.5)
4. WASHINGTON -1.5 (+1.0)
5(tie). DALLAS -6.5 (+0.2)
HOUSTON -6 (+0.2)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-CAR OVER 38.5 (+4.4)
2. PIT-DEN OVER 36.5 (+3.9)
3. SEA-NE OVER 37.5 (+3.2)
4. IND-GB OVER 40.5 (+2.7)
5. CLE-JAX OVER 41.5 (+2.6)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). NYG-WAS UNDER 44.5 (-2.4)
CIN-KC UNDER 47.5 (-2.4)
3. TB-DET UNDER 51 (-2.3)
4. LAR-ARI UNDER 48.5 (-2.2)
5. ATL-PHI UNDER 47 (-0.1)

Here are 19 top NFL betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:

* Jared Goff (DET) is 26-24 SU but 35-15 ATS (70%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +1.9, Team average PF: 24.1
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-7 vs. TB)

* Jalen Hurts (PHI) is 18-2 SU and 13-6-1 ATS (68.4%) as a home favorite. The average line was -7.5, Team average PF: 31.2
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-6.5 vs. ATL) 

* Joe Burrow (CIN) is 8-9-1 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) as an underdog of 7 points or less. The average line was +4.3, Team average PF: 24.3
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+5 at KC)

* Joe Burrow (CIN) is 16-8 SU and ATS (66.7%) vs. non-divisional conference foes. The average line was -0.7, Team average PF: 24.6
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+5 at KC) 

* Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) is 21-6 SU and 19-8 ATS (70.4%) in home games. The average line was -3.6, Team average PF: 24.4
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-2.5 vs. BUF) 

* Derek Carr (NO) is 20-29 SU and 17-30-2 ATS (36.2%) vs. NFC foes. The average line was +0.5, Team average PF: 21.3
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+6.5 at DAL) 

* Justin Fields (PIT) is 8-24 SU and 11-19-2 ATS (36.7%) in Sunday games. The average line was +4.1, Team average PF: 19.5
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-2.5 at DEN)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* ARIZONA is 21-27 ATS (43.8%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 8-17 ATS (32%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 16-28 ATS (36%) as a favorite since 2016
Systems Match: FADE ARIZONA (-1 vs. LAR)

* BALTIMORE is 46-55 ATS (45.5%) as a favorite since 2015
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-9 vs. LVR)

* BUFFALO is 25-19 ATS (56.8%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+2.5 at MIA)

* CAROLINA is 14-25 ATS (35.9%) at home since 2019
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+6.5 vs. LAC)

* CHICAGO is 24-41 ATS (36.9%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 22-36 ATS (37.9%) as an underdog since 2019
Systems Match: FADE CHICAGO (+6 at HOU)

* CINCINNATI is 44-26 ATS (62.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015

* CINCINNATI is 49-29 ATS (62.8%) in road/neutral games since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 23-13 ATS (63.9%) as an underdog since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+5 at KC)

* DALLAS is 27-18 ATS (60%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-6.5 vs. NO)

* DENVER is 91-58 UNDER the total (61.1%) since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER in PIT-DEN (o/u at 36.5)

* DETROIT is 19-6 ATS (76%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 36-15 ATS (70.6%) overall since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY DETROIT (-7 vs. TB)

* GREEN BAY is 20-13 ATS (60.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* GREEN BAY is 28-16 ATS (63.6%) at home since 2019
* GREEN BAY is 20-10 ATS (66.7%) as an underdog since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+3.5 vs. IND) 

* INDIANAPOLIS is 24-14 ATS (63.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5 at GB) 

* JACKSONVILLE is 24-37 ATS (39.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 18-25 ATS (41.9%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 32-21 UNDER the total (60.4%) since 2021
Systems Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-3 v.s CLE), also PLAY UNDER in CLE-JAX (o/u at 41.5) 

* LA RAMS are 21-12 ATS (63.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* LA RAMS are 42-31 UNDER the total (57.5%) since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY LA RAMS (+1 at ARI), also PLAY UNDER in LAR-ARI (o/u at 48.5)

* LAS VEGAS is 28-43 ATS (39.4%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 32-46 ATS (41%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Systems Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (+9 at BAL) 

* MIAMI is 57-27 ATS (67.9%) at home since 2014
* MIAMI is 33-20 ATS (62.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Systems Match: PLAY MIAMI (-2.5 vs. BUF)

* MINNESOTA is 18-24 ATS (42.9%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* MINNESOTA is 12-22 ATS (35.3%) at home since 2020
* MINNESOTA is 50-36 OVER the total (58.1%) since 2019
Systems Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+6 vs. SF), also PLAY OVER in SF-MIN (o/u at 46) 

* NEW ENGLAND is 11-17 ATS (39.3%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+3.5 vs. SEA) 

* NEW ORLEANS is 33-18 ATS (64.7%) in road/neutral games since 2018
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+6.5 at DAL) 

* NY GIANTS are 45-22 UNDER the total (67.2%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYG-WAS (o/u at 44.5)

* NY JETS are 7-20 ATS (25.9%) as a favorite since 2017
* NY JETS are 18-40 ATS (31%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Systems Match: FADE NY JETS (-3.5 at TEN)

* PITTSBURGH is 18-27 ATS (40%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 93-61 UNDER the total (60.4%) since 2015
Systems Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-2.5 at DEN), also PLAY UNDER in PIT-DEN (o/u at 36.5) 

* SAN FRANCISCO is 36-24 ATS (60%) when coming off SU win since 2019
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-6 at MIN) 

* SEATTLE is 36-48 ATS (42.9%) when coming off SU win since 2015
* SEATTLE is 20-15 ATS (57.1%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (-3.5 at NE)

* TENNESSEE is 32-45 ATS (41.6%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+3.5 vs. NYJ)

* WASHINGTON is 16-32 ATS (33.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 13-28 ATS (31.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
* WASHINGTON is 38-28 UNDER the total (57.6%) since 2020
Systems Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-1.5 vs. NYG), also PLAY UNDER in NYG-WAS (o/u at 44.5)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(103) BUFFALO at (104) MIAMI
* Under the total is 10-4-1 in the BUF-MIA series at Miami since 2010
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(289) CHICAGO at (290) HOUSTON
* Houston is 5-1 ATS in the last six versus Chicago
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(285) CINCINNATI at (286) KANSAS CITY
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last eight of the CIN-KC series in Kansas City
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(273) CLEVELAND at (274) JACKSONVILLE
* Home teams are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of CLE-JAC h2h series
System Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE ATS

(271) INDIANAPOLIS at (272) GREEN BAY
The last seven games of the IND-GB series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(265) LA CHARGERS at (266) CAROLINA
* CAROLINA is on a 6-1 ATS run versus LA Chargers
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS

(283) LA RAMS at (284) ARIZONA
* RAMS have won the last nine ATS at Arizona
System Match: PLAY LA RAMS ATS

(263) LAS VEGAS at (264) BALTIMORE
* The last six games of the LVR-BAL series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(267) NEW ORLEANS at (268) DALLAS
* Underdogs are 6-0 ATS in last six of the NO-DAL series at Dallas
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(281) NY GIANTS at (282) WASHINGTON
* NY GIANTS are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in last six trips to Washington
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS ATS

(279) NY JETS at (280) TENNESSEE
* TENNESSEE is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 games versus NY Jets
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE ATS

(287) PITTSBURGH at (288) DENVER
* Underdogs are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 of the PIT-DEN series
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(275) SAN FRANCISCO at (276) MINNESOTA
* Home teams have won the last six ATS in the SF-MIN series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(277) SEATTLE at (278) NEW ENGLAND
* The last six games of the SEA-NE series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(269) TAMPA BAY at (270) DETROIT
* FAVORITES are on 5-0-1 ATS surge in the TB-DET series
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(291) ATLANTA at (292) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is on 8-2 ATS surge hosting Atlanta
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

For more NFL Week 2 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 2 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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