NFL Week 12 best bets from the T Shoe Index


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NFL Week 12 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index

One of the best weeks of the year is upon us; a week of family, food, and football.  There’s nothing better to help you escape a totally unnecessary and politically-charged debate with your uncle and/or grandparents at the Thanksgiving table than some Turkey Day NFL football – especially if you’ve got some action on it. So, rather than getting fired up about differing opinions on military spending and which candidate has done the most terrible things in his/her life, channel that energy into sweating some bets with me, courtesy of my T Shoe Index. 

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Dallas Cowboys (-11) vs Washington Commanders, O/U 48.5 (Thursday)

The Cowboys, No. 3 in my TSI power ratings, host the Washington Commanders, No. 31 and fresh off a loss to the Giants. It doesn’t get much lower than losing to a team that doesn’t particularly want to win. TSI projects a 14 point Cowboys’ win here. As you know by now, I’m not a huge trends bettor, but one trend that jumped out to me is that favorites of 10+ are 8-0 on Thanksgiving since 2005. I recently called the Cowboys “The Penn State of the NFL” due to the way they tend to annihilate poor competition and that sometimes doesn’t translate to them beating the elite teams. Washington qualifies as poor competition, and that’s putting it generously. I think the Cowboys will roll here and do what they do against inferior opposition.

Pick: Cowboys -11 (Play to -13)

Kansas City Chiefs (-9) vs Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 43 (Sunday)

I said I’m not a trends guy, and I’m now hitting you with another trend that I found interesting *shrug*. These teams have combined to go under the total in 9 straight games (last 5 games for KC and last 4 games for LV). The Chiefs’ receivers continue to let Patrick Mahomes down with crucial drops. At some point that stops being “variance” and becomes “who they are”. TSI projects just 37 points in this game, as the Chiefs boast the No. 1 rated defense in my ratings, while the Raiders are a respectable 15th on that side. Conversely, these offenses are 16th (KC) and 29th (LV), so it’s fair to expect points to be hard to come by. The Raiders’ team total is posted at 16.5, and that under is probably also worth considering on top of or instead of the game under, but given the Chiefs’ struggles on offense (that sounds crazy to say), I’m going to play the game under.

Pick: Under 43 (Play to 41)

To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.