NFL Week 3 Best Bets and Predictions:

Let’s look at some NFL Week 3 best bets:

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5; 38)

Tennessee finds itself 0-2 SU and ATS when they probably should be the reverse considering they outgained both of their first two opponents, but find themselves -4 in turnover margin through the first two games.

 

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Defensively, the Titans have shown dramatic improvement from last season but Will Levis, who is throwing the football better, has given it up five times (3 INTs, 2 fumbles).

Meanwhile, Green Bay was able to steal a win with Malik Willis starting last week. The Packers ran it 53 times for 261 yards against the Colts and Matt LaFleur set up Willis with quick and easy throws (12-for-14, 122 yds, TD).

Now Willis returns to face the team that originally drafted him. This spot will not be as easy considering the Titans, led by All-Pro Jeffery Simmons, are fairly stout against the run (9th Rush DVOA).

In the past 10 seasons, 0-2 teams are 61% ATS in Week 3. Plus, from our own Steve Makinen:

NFL Week 3 Betting System #1: Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 26-25 SU but 35-15-1 ATS (70%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010.

Here you have a desperate team trying to avoid the dreaded 0-3 that knows they may have already left two victories on the field.

Pick: Titans ML (-140)

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5; 41.5)

Tua Tagovailoa will be making the trip to Seattle but will not be playing due to yet another concussion. Skylar Thompson is the next man up for Miami. While Thompson had just a 31.3% dropback success rate in relief of Tua against Buffalo, the game was already a blowout with Miami in obvious passing situations, so no need to put too much stock into those numbers.

Despite having to go on the road with a backup QB, this isn’t the worst spot for Miami with extended rest against a team that also has to travel back across the country off an overtime victory.

Seattle is 2-0, but have had two closer games than expected with Denver getting in the backdoor and New England taking them to overtime.

The Seahawks defense did allow 310 yards at New England against a Patriots offense that only generated 139 yards on Thursday night against the Jets.

Kenneth Walker will be out again for Seattle and the Seahawks rushing attack dropped off a cliff without him. With Walker starting Week 1 vs. Denver, Seattle had a 53.3 rush play percentage, the fourth most in the opening week. In Week 2 with Zach Charbonnet, the Seahawks were dead last in rush play percentage at just 27.3%.

This is a “fallen hero” spot for Miami here.

Pick: Dolphins +4.5

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5; 41)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made NFL history last week becoming just the second team since the merger (1970) to win a game despite being outgained by 200+ yards and having a sack differential of five or more. Needless to say, the Bucs luck from late last season has carried over to this season.

Detroit was an uncharacteristic 1-for-6 in the red zone last week against the Bucs.

Now Tampa returns home as relatively sizable favorites to face a Denver team that has struggled offensively with rookie QB Bo Nix.

However, the Broncos defense has been better than advertised as they rank in the league’s top six for pass rush rate and run-stop rate. They also are leading the league in blitz rate (48.1%).

Baker Mayfield is just 15-26-1 (37%) ATS in his career as a favorite.

Pick: Denver Broncos +6.5/+7 (-120)

OTHER BEST BETS:

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at New Orleans Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 at Buffalo Bills

TEASER OF THE WEEK

Minnesota Vikings +8/Los Angeles Chargers +9

TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Carolina Panthers/Las Vegas Raiders OVER 40

For more NFL Week 3 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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