NFL Lookahead Lines:

Much has changed since I wrote about the lookahead numbers last week. The Niners moved off the key number of 3 (to -3.5) Thursday night in Seattle. I didn’t foresee the Derek Carr injury, but Tampa has flipped from +3 to -3.5 at New Orleans. The Commanders/Ravens total touched 53 this week before coming back down to 51.5. The early total of 49.5 was too low. Finally, the Chargers/Broncos total was above the key number of 37. 35.5 is the current number at DraftKings.

Best of luck in Week 6 if you were able to grab some good early numbers.

 

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The following are current Week 7 NFL numbers posted at DraftKings:

Week 7 Thursday Night Football

  • Broncos (-1, 36.5) at Saints

Week 7 Sunday NFL Games

  • Patriots vs. Jaguars (-6, 40) … in London
  • Titans at Bills (-7.5, 42.5)
  • Lions at Vikings (-1.5, 48.5)
  • Eagles (-4.5, 45.5) at Giants
  • Dolphins at Colts (-3, 43)
  • Texans at Packers (-2.5, 47)
  • Bengals (-4.5, 45) at Browns
  • Seahawks at Falcons (-3, 47.5)
  • Panthers at Commanders (-7, 49)
  • Raiders at Rams (-4, 44)
  • Chiefs at 49ers (-1, 46.5)

Week 7 Sunday Night Football

  • Jets at Steelers (-1, 37)

Week 7 Monday Night Football

  • Ravens (-5, 47.5) at Buccaneers
  • Chargers at Cardinals (-1, 43)

There are numerous reasons why I like to bet lookahead numbers and Games of The Year in the NFL. Look no further than Washington hosting Carolina in week 7. Washington was -3 before the regular season started. While I was higher than the market on the Commanders before the season started, I didn’t pull the trigger on that bet. It’s a decision I regret to this day. 

The Seattle/Atlanta total is a high for 2024, but I don’t think it’s high enough. Considering their Week 6 matchups (Seattle hosts SF – total is 49.5, and the Atlanta/Carolina total is 47), 47.5 might be long gone by the time week 7 openers hit the board on Sunday night. Seattle’s hot start has proven to be fugazi. Wins over the Broncos, Patriots, and the Dolphins – without Tua Tagovailoa – have not aged well. The Lions got whatever they wanted and scored 42 points, and the Giants traveled to the Pacific Northwest and came away victorious. The Falcons got it going offensively in Week 5 versus Tampa Bay and figure to do the same this week against a terrible Carolina defense. We could see some fireworks when these two teams play on the fast indoor track in Atlanta. 

Give me the Chargers +1 at Arizona on Monday night. The Chargers are ranked 2nd overall in defensive DVOA entering Week 6. They’re 3rd vs. the rush and 9th vs. the pass. The Cardinals rank 26th overall, 29th vs. the pass, and 21st vs. the rush. Los Angeles has taken money this week at Denver (up to -3), and the Cardinals are 5-point underdogs at Green Bay. LA is also getting healthy after their Week 5 bye. As long as the team remains healthy, they will go off as the favorite if Week 6 results match the current opinion by the betting market. Plus, I really like the matchup for the Bolts. 

Andy Reid off the bye. Need I say more? I have him at 21-4 post-bye week in his career in the regular season as a head coach. They’re currently listed as a one-point dog. What if the Chiefs turn into the favorite? You should bookmark this link from VSiN’s Steve Makinen NFL Post-Bye Week Betting Systems to read throughout the NFL year. His numbers on road chalk off the bye are phenomenal.

Finally, where are the points coming from Sunday night in Pittsburgh? Shaky offenses led by average to below average QB play, and a pair of rock-solid defenses should be on full display. 37 is a key number for totals. I’ll go Under.

For all of our NFL Week 6 content, click here.

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