The Sao Paulo Game in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season features the Green Bay Packers facing the Philadelphia Eagles at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime and standalone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 1 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

 

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How To Watch Packers vs. Eagles

When: Friday, September 6th at 8:15 pm ET

Where: Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Channel: Peacock

Packers vs. Eagles Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, September 3rd, but make sure you shop around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Eagles -135, Packers +114

Spread: Eagles -2.5 (-112), Packers +2.5 (-108)

Total: Over 48.5 (-110), Under 48.5 (-110)

Packers vs. Eagles Analysis

There has been some noteworthy line movement in this game. Philadelphia, once -1.5, is now -2.5 at most shops. Also, the total has gone from 51.5 down to 48.5. The latter is interesting. These weren’t good defensive teams in 2023. But both of them did bring in new defensive coordinators, and a lot of the emphasis in training camp was on patching things up on that side of the ball.

As far as the spread goes, it might be a little odd to see the Eagles laying almost a field goal on a neutral field. After all, the Packers ended up being the better football team in 2023. Green Bay was just 9-8 during the regular season, but the team won its Wild Card game against Dallas and nearly beat San Francisco in the Divisional Round. There was a lot of growth from quarterback Jordan Love throughout the year, and the Packers should be better defensively with former Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley in for Joe Barry at defensive coordinator. However, the Eagles should look a lot more like the team that started 10-1 last season than the one that finished 1-5 in the final six weeks — and then got blown out by Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round.

For the first 11 weeks of last season, the Eagles were fifth in the league in EPA per play and 18th in the league in EPA per play allowed. But in the final six weeks, Philadelphia was 14th in EPA per play and 29th in EPA per play allowed. A lot of things went wrong for the Eagles, but injuries didn’t help. And neither did a pair of uninspiring coordinators. So, head coach Nick Sirianni went out and got Kellen Moore to lead the offense and Vic Fangio to coach up the defense. The goal for Moore will be building a top-five offense again. If he does that, Fangio will just need a league-average defense. With Philadelphia’s defensive talent, that should be extremely doable.

One thing to like about this matchup is that Fangio’s defenses are generally good about preventing explosive plays. He tries to bait opposing offenses into running the ball, and Green Bay will likely jump at that opportunity. The Packers are going to want to establish Josh Jacobs in his first game with the team, and this Eagles team was 30th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed last year. However, Philadelphia’s defensive line should be a lot better under Fangio, and the Eagles love their group of linebackers. So, as long as they don’t get absolutely shredded on the ground, this is a good matchup. Fangio won’t allow Love to consistently beat his defense over the top. That’s big against a Packers team that likes to take shots down the field.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles are going to be a handful for the Packers to stop. This might not be the best game for newly-acquired running back Saquon Barkley, as Hafley is looking for life from his front seven immediately. The Eagles are also playing their first meaningful game without Jason Kelce. But the Packers were just 23rd in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed last year, and teams should have success throwing on this group again. That said, if Hurts can avoid turning the ball over, which was a problem last season, Philadelphia could march down the field with relative ease.

Packers vs. Eagles Player Props

Jalen Hurts Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

People are really excited about the change the Packers made on defense, and Hafley’s move to a 4-3 means things will be different. However, only the Seahawks and Falcons gave up more rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks than the Packers did last season. So, I’m playing Hurts to rush for at least 36 yards and hoping Green Bay needs a little time to really figure things out.

Hurts should be better as a runner in 2024. The quarterback’s 3.9 yards per carry in 2023 left a lot to be desired, especially after he rushed for 784 yards on 139 carries in his first year as a starter. He even followed it up by rushing for 4.6 yards per carry in 2022. But Hurts was banged up for most of last season, and the offense never quite clicked with Brian Johnson calling the shots. Well, Hurts is healthy after having had so much time to get his body right, and Moore is going to keep things simple in Philadelphia. That means a lot of pre-snap motion to try and scheme guys open, but it likely also means utilizing Hurts’ legs. Moore wants to have some success in his first year with the Eagles. He won’t do that unless he plays to Hurts’ strengths.

Packers vs. Eagles Pick

I feel really good about the Eagles winning this game, so I’ll happily lay 2.5 points. The Eagles are going to have a young secondary this season, but it’s also a talented one. And the Fangio scheme isn’t going to stress those guys too much. So, Philadelphia should be able to bend and not break against this Green Bay offense. But I don’t think the Packers are going to be able to consistently get the Eagles off the field.

Overall, I’m really high on Philadelphia this season, and Hurts is my pick to win MVP this year. This game should allow the Eagles to make an early statement.

Pick: Eagles -2.5 (-110)

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