4:30 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9, 53)
The Jags (10-8) are the 4-seed and have won six straight games. Jacksonville just upset the Chargers in the Wild Card round, winning outright as 2-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (14-3) are the 1-seed and coming off a bye. This line opened with Kansas City listed as high as a 9.5-point home favorite. Early in the week we saw this line fall from Chiefs -9.5 to -8.5, signaling some smart money grabbing the points with the road dog. But over the past 24-48 hours we’ve seen some Kansas City buyback at -8.5, raising the line back up to Chiefs -9 or even -9.5 at home shops. Currently 54% of bets are laying the points with the Chiefs at home, signaling slight public support.
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The Jaguars match several betting systems. Playoff dogs are 4-2 ATS this postseason and 40-25 ATS (62%) over the past five postseasons. It’s also been smart to bet against teams coming off a bye in the divisional round (59% ATS over the past 20 postseasons). The Jags are 8-5 ATS as a dog this season and Doug Pederson is 6-0 ATS as a dog in the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes is just 11-18 ATS (38%) as a favorite of 7-points or more over the past three seasons. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game as the total has ticked up from 52 to 53.
8:15 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 48)
The Giants (10-7-1) are the 6-seed and just took down the Vikings 31-24 in the Wild Card round, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Eagles (14-3) are the 1-seed and coming off a bye. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public sees a close game and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with the Giants. However, despite New York receiving 68% of bets we’ve actually seen the line move further to the Eagles -7 to -7.5. Some shops are juicing up Eagles -7.5 to -115, signaling a possible further move up to -8. Philadelphia has value as a contrarian favorite in a heavily bet primetime game and also a "fade the trendy dog" system match. The Eagles are also in a prime teaser spot (-7.5 to -1.5), passing through multiple key numbers.
Pros are also leaning over, steaming the total up from 47 to 48. Currently 67% of bets and 73% of money are taking the over, indicating both Pro and Joe support. The Eagles are 10-7 to the over this season, including 6-3 to the over at home. The Giants are 3-1 to the over in their last four games.
