Tuley’s Takes: MLB League Championship Series Best Bets:
The MLB Divisional Series went better than the Wild-Card round here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, and now we’re ready for the League Championship Series.
The National League matchup starts Sunday with the top-seeded Milwaukee Brewers, who beat the San Diego Padres 3-1, facing the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers, who also beat the Atlanta Braves 3-1. I lost my bets on the Padres in that series, but luckily wrote that I was only taking the Under in the game in which Chris Sale started for the Braves, and that turned out to be the Dodgers’ 3-1 win in Game 3 with a total of 6.5 runs.
In the American League, I lost with the New York Yankees +119 in Game 1 as the only game in their series as underdogs in the Tampa Bay Rays’ 3-0 sweep. We fared better with the Chicago White Sox as they beat the Cleveland Guardians as +128 road dogs in Game 1 and +133 in Game 2. For those reading this Saturday before Game 5’s first pitch at 8 p.m. ET, I’m on the White Sox +119 as we hope to see the road teams win every game in the series.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Series price: Dodgers -160 / Brewers +140
Game 1 odds: Brewers -110 / Dodgers -102, Over/Under 7 o-120
Despite the Brewers having “home-field advantage” (though that only really matters if the series goes the full seven games), the Dodgers are sizable series favorites, which makes sense as the two-time champs have the best team money can buy and swept the Brewers 4-0 last year in the NLCS. It’s not like this Milwaukee team is that much better this year (despite winning the season series 4-3, though the Dodgers did outscore them 27-25), plus the Dodgers will be bigger favorites in the home games in Los Angeles. It’s also interesting that the Dodgers went 2-1 in Milwaukee while the Brewers went 3-1 in Los Angeles, so as I’ve written across all sports in recent years, home-field advantage isn’t as important as it used to be.
With that in mind, I’m surprised the Dodgers are short underdogs in Game 1, so I’ll gladly take them here (-102 at Circa Sports, +100 at Caesars). The Brewers are favored with presumptive NL Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski taking the mound, but I have no problem fading him with Tarik Skubal going for the Dodgers. Some reports had the Dodgers starting Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which I’d also be fine with. Misiorowski is great, but he’s far from unhittable and gave up two runs in four innings in Game 1 against the Padres.
In these series, I usually write something like taking a certain team anytime they’re underdogs, but in this case we might not see the Dodgers as dogs again, or at least until a Game 6 back in Milwaukee. In looking at the Brewers as road dogs, the spot to back them might be Game 3 in L.A. vs. Blake Snell, who lasted only 3 1/3 innings in the Dodgers’ Game 2 loss to the Braves.
I usually like to bet Unders the deeper we get into the playoffs (note: Unders led 9-4-2 in the divisional round after Overs dominated 7-1-1 in the wild-card round), but with strong starting pitching, I expect totals to be too low to bet Under. For instance, Game 1 has a total of 6, so I’ll pass there. If we get a game lined at 7, I’d lean that way and jump at any game Under 7.5.
Best Bets: Dodgers -102 in Sunday’s Game 1 and if they’re dogs in any other game; possibly Brewers as road dogs in Los Angeles (Game 3 vs. Snell?); plus Under 7.5 in any game if we can get it.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Series price: Rays -170 / Guardians +150
Game 1 odds: Rays -165 / Guardians +145, Over/Under 6.5 o-120
With the Guardians shutting out the White Sox 2-0 Saturday night in Game 5 of their ALDS, only the four top seeds remain in the LCS, with all the wild cards gone. The Rays were the AL’s top seed, winning a whopping 13 more games (98-85) than the Guardians.
The Rays also won the season series 5-1 and outscored the Guardians 20-8, so it’s plain to see why the Rays are so heavily favored in a seven-game series. However, when taking a closer look at the meetings, the Rays won 11-3 on July 24 (before the Guardians made their run to pass the White Sox in the AL Central) for 8 of that 12-run differential, and all the rest of the games were closer with two 1-0 wins by the Rays. I believe those games will be more indicative of this series, so I see value in the Guardians +150 to advance to the World Series.
As for Game 1, the Rays also have the advantage of being able to set their rotations better with their sweep of the Yankees, while the Guardians have “all hands on deck” to outlast the White Sox in five games. However, while the Rays can go with Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP), the Guardians are still able to counter with Foster Griffin (15-6, 3,60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) and he is no slouch. These teams are close in a lot of stats, and I actually will take the team that had to battle back from 0-2 deficit as they certainly have to feel like a team of destiny and hopefully get off to a better start in this series.
Having said that, I think this will be a back-and-forth series that goes at least six games, so I’m probably going to be on the Rays as road dogs in Games 3-5.
Best Bets: Guardians +150 in series, plus any game as underdogs, including +145 in Monday’s Game 1; might flip to Rays as road dogs in Cleveland.
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