Today we have a loaded slate of midweek MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers (-150, 8)
The Brewers (37-21) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 16-2 as -165 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 8-3 as -260 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Giants (23-38) hand the ball to righty Logan Webb (2-4, 4.82 ERA) and the Brewers are expected to start righty Tyson Hardin, who will make his MLB debut after going 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA in AAA this season.
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -145 home favorite and San Francisco a +125 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Brew Crew to earn another victory at home, pushing Milwaukee up from -145 to -150, with some shops touching -155.
At Circa, Milwaukee is receiving 71% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record who made the postseason the previous year, like the Brewers here, are 64-35 (65%) with a 6% ROI this season.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less are 63-37 (63%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Milwaukee offers betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a low total game (8), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Brewers have the more productive bats, posting a .336 OBP with 292 runs scored compared to the Giants posting a .301 OBP with 237 runs scored.
San Francisco is just 1-6 in Webb’s last seven starts. He has posted a 6.61 ERA in night games compared to 2.14 in day games.
Milwaukee is 21-11 at home. San Francisco is 11-22 on the road.
7:45 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 8)
The Rangers (30-31) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 2-1 as -130 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-4 as a -110 road pick’em.
In tonight’s series finale, the Rangers send out lefty MacKenzie Gore (4-4, 3.96 ERA) and the Cardinals (31-28) turn to righty Andre Pallante (5-4, 4.19 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
The public is leaning toward the Rangers to complete the sweep at a coin-flip price. However, despite 54% of moneyline bets backing Texas we’ve actually seen this line move further toward St. Louis -110 to -115, with some shops touching Cardinals -120.
This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Cardinals, as the line is moving in their favor despite the public leaning toward Texas.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are receiving 46% of moneyline bets and 56% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Cardinals are taking in 25% of moneyline bets and 37% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the home team.
Home favorites priced -140 or less facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Cardinals here, are 106-70 (60%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Above .500 home favorites priced -140 or less facing a sub .500 team are 32-18 (65%) with a 17% ROI this season.
Home favorites who lost the first two games of a series and are looking to avoid the sweep have gone 11-6 (65%) with an 11% ROI this season and 238-125 (66%) with an 11% ROI since 2017.
Pallante is 4-1 with a 3.67 ERA in night games compared to 1-3 with a 4.94 ERA in day games. St. Louis is 3-1 in his last four starts.
Meanwhile, Gore is 1-4 with a 5.81 ERA on the road compared to 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA at home.
8:05 p.m. ET: Athletics at Chicago Cubs (-135, 8.5)
The Athletics (29-31) stole last night’s Interleague series opener 2-1, coming through as +105 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Athletics start lefty Jeffrey Springs (3-6, 4.07 ERA) and the Cubs (32-29) rebuttal with righty Colin Rea (5-3, 4.70 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -120 home favorite and the Athletics a +100 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Cubs to bounce back with a win, steaming Chicago up from -120 to -135.
At Circa, the Cubs are receiving 57% of moneyline bets but a massive 98% of moneyline dollars, a hefty “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Home favorites priced -140 or less facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Cubs here, are 106-70 (60%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Above .500 home favorites priced -140 or less facing a sub .500 team are 32-18 (65%) with a 17% ROI this season.
Chicago has betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Rea has posted a 2.96 ERA at home compared to 6.19 on the road.
Meanwhile, the A’s are 0-5 in Springs’s last five starts.
Chicago has the better bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 3.42 compared to 4.45 for the Athletics.
