Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer preview the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.
The $2 million final leg of the 2026 Triple Crown drew a nine-horse field that goes to post at 7:04 p.m. Eastern, with five of them coming out of the Kentucky Derby. The two handicappers disagree on the winner – Aragona picks Commandment, and Beer picks Emerging Market. Neither one is backing the 2-1 morning-line favorite, Renegade, or Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo. Both see the race as a fresh look at how those Derby trips played out.
Aragona’s top pick: No. 7 Commandment
Commandment, trained by Brad Cox, was the horse Aragona liked best for the Derby. Aragona blames a slow break, a wide trip, and a hard bump in upper stretch for a finish short of his best. He gets John Velazquez riding here, and Aragona expects a cleaner trip. Beer agrees, noting Commandment finished ahead of Chief Wallabee in both their Florida preps.
Beer’s top pick: No. 8 Emerging Market
Emerging Market, trained by Chad Brown, is Beer’s choice on top. Beer says the colt’s sharp break left him too close to a pace that collapsed and that on only his third career start he had no foundation for 1 1/4 miles. With more time and a softer pace, Beer expects the right trip. Aragona sees the upside but is less convinced.
Aragona’s second choice: No. 3 Chief Wallabee
Chief Wallabee is Aragona’s second selection. Aragona says Chief Wallabee ducked in looking for a hole in upper stretch in the Derby, the gap closed, and he was steadied. Aragona praises Junior Alvarado’s ride and calls him handy. Beer rates him among the most talented in the crop but will not use him at a short price, and Aragona shares that caution even while keeping him second.
The favorite: No. 4 Renegade
Renegade, the 2-1 morning-line favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding, sits third on both ballots. Aragona says Renegade barely lost the Derby after a rough start and rates him a solid contender not worth too short a price. Beer goes further, calling him maybe the most likely winner with a clean run but also declining 2-1.
The Derby winner they oppose: No. 9 Golden Tempo
Golden Tempo, the Derby winner for trainer Cherie DeVaux with Jose Ortiz riding, draws no backing from either. Aragona says everything broke right that day – a patient ride into a collapsing pace – and that perfect-trip winners are the ones to oppose. With little early speed here, he says the closer will not get that setup again. Beer agrees the colt got a little lucky.
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 7 Commandment
No. 3 Chief Wallabee
No. 4 Renegade
No. 8 Emerging Market
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 8 Emerging Market
No. 7 Commandment
No. 4 Renegade
No. 2 Powershift
For more from David and Mike, check out this video preview:
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