Super Bowl LX Best Bets
These best bets appeared in the VSiN Super Bowl LX Betting Guide and are listed alphabetically by VSiN host/expert. Odds current at time of submission.
Gill Alexander
Seahawks -4 -128
The Over on the length of Charlie Puth’s National Anthem was the best bet a couple of days after the conference championship games ended, but as it’s now three seconds higher than when first recommended on ANG, twist my arm, it’s the Seahawks.
I ridiculously bought this down to -4 as a knee-jerk reaction to seeing the line for the first time, thinking it would fly in the other direction. You may not sacredly believe that the Seahawks are the seventh-best team in DVOA history (since 1978) or that the Patriots have played the third-easiest schedule per DVOA since ‘78, nor that they’re the 16th-worst team to ever make the Super Bowl in the DVOA era, but it might be wise to at least respect the point being made. And yes, scoring 16 points to beat a Chargers team with a compromised O-Line, overcoming five turnovers and fortuitously landing on two other fumbles to beat Houston, and winning in a sideways blizzard at Denver add to the narrative. Even if I didn’t know any of that, this matchup gives me 1980s/early1990s vibes when SF/WAS/NYG/DAL dominated DEN/BUF. The only thing left for me is to see how low the Seahawks moneyline gets when all the dog bettors inevitably start betting NE ML.
Josh Appelbaum
Patriots +4.5
As a data-driven contrarian bettor who likes to bet against the public, dissect betting splits and follow historically profitable system matches, this Super Bowl is my Super Bowl. At DraftKings, roughly 70% of spread bets are laying the points with the Seahawks. As a result, I automatically want to bet against the masses who are hammering Seattle and go against the grain by taking New England plus the points.
Contrarian betting is a foundational philosophy and long-term strategy. Because the public bets based on gut instinct, favoritism and bias (and loses far more often than they win), contrarians like to go against the herd mentality and place themselves on the side of the house, who always wins in the end. However, the key with going contrarian is focusing on the most heavily bet sports and, in particular, the most heavily bet games featuring the most public participation. The Super Bowl is the most heavily bet sporting event of the year, by far. With an influx of public bettors looking to get in on the action, contrarian value is heightened which provides more incentive to zig when the masses zag. By taking the Patriots plus the points, I can bet against the public who is loading up on Seattle.
I’m also a big believer in bet splits. By comparing the percentage of bets to the percentage of dollars, bettors can cut through the noise and identify which side is taking the sharper action. At Circa, which caters to sharp bettors, New England is only receiving a third of tickets but nearly half the money. This indicates a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the Pats, with a majority of smart money from the pros out in Vegas also taking Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye plus the points.
Lastly, aside from just going contrarian and following bet splits, the Patriots are a system play.
Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year, like the Patriots here, are 4-1 ATS this postseason and 30-13 ATS (70%) with a 35% ROI since 2020. Super Bowl dogs are 15-7 ATS (68%) with a 32% ROI since 2004. Super Bowl dogs getting three points or more are 11-4 ATS (73%) with a 42% ROI since 2004.
As a die-hard Patriots fan, born and raised in New England, I’ll be rooting for the Pats to win the game outright. But as a bettor, I’ll be sweating the +4.5.
Stormy Buonantony
Seahawks -4.5
Call me Joe Public if you want, but I think Seattle is the right side and it’s probably worth playing some of the alternate spreads at plus money as well (-7.5 at +140, -13.5 at +250, etc.).
The Patriots offense this postseason is averaging just 18 points per game, the fewest by a team entering the SB since 1979 and a stark contrast from the 28.8 they averaged during the regular season. It made me laugh a bit how much Patriots backers have made the argument, “Well of course their offense has suffered…look at the defenses they played” Well, it’s not magically going to get easier facing the top defense in the NFL in the biggest game of the year.
Drake Maye’s durability and ball security should also be a concern. Shoulder questions aside, he’s been sacked 15 times with six fumbles (three lost) and multiple picks. Unlike the opposing offenses they’ve faced so far in the postseason, Seattle has one capable of cashing in on those moments. For as much pub as the Pats defense has received in the playoffs, they didn’t play an offense with a pulse. Sam Darnold just threw for 346 yds, three touchdowns and zero interceptions, and I think the sample size is large enough over the last two years to recognize he can do the job. One other wrinkle I think that’s worth bringing up here is special teams. We talked a lot about the ST disparity between Seattle and the Rams ahead of the NFC title game, which ended up playing a role, yet it’s not being brought up here nearly as much as it should. They’re No. 2 in DVOA on special teams compared to NE ranking 20th. I don’t want to overthink this anymore. The Seahawks just feel like the better team in almost every area, so that’s where I’m putting my money.
Adam Burke
Seahawks 1st Quarter -0.5 (+100)
Throughout the season, I’ve been doing a weekly article handicapping the First Touchdown Scorer betting market. As good as the Patriots have been this season, scoring the first touchdown in a game didn’t come all that frequently to them for a while. The Patriots wound up scoring the first TD in 9/20 games, and have done so in 2/3 here in the postseason.
The Seahawks enter this game having scored the first TD in 14/19 games. Only the Colts finished with a higher success rate in that metric. Over 19 games, the Seahawks have only allowed four touchdowns in the first quarter. The Patriots have allowed 10, while scoring 14. So they are +4 in first quarter TD differential, while Seattle is +9 with 13 TDs in the first quarter, including three in the playoffs.
The Patriots defense also starts slowly. They allowed 6.04 yards per play in the first quarter during the regular season, while the Seahawks defense allowed just 4.59. My belief is that Seattle leads after the first 15.
Rhamondre Stevenson Longest Reception Over 12.5 Yards
While game state had a lot to do with this, the Seahawks allowed the most receptions to running backs (97) during the regular season and the sixth-most receiving yards. Stevenson was 28th among pass catchers in yards after catch per reception according to Pro-Football-Reference. The Seahawks had 110 missed tackles per PFR during the season and allowed the second-most yards after catch in the league.
Stevenson had seven receptions on eight targets in the first two playoff games, but wasn’t able to link up with Maye in the AFC Championship Game, so I feel like the Patriots may look to use him more in this game as something that perhaps the Seahawks aren’t expecting as much. He’s also gotten a lot more touches and opportunities than TreVeyon Henderson in the playoffs. Stevenson had 37 targets without a drop in the regular season and caught 32 of them, so he’s been a reliable pass catcher when called upon.
Craig Woodson Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists
The Patriots have really spread the tackles around this season because they like to rotate guys in and out of the lineup. That’s especially true at the linebacker position, where a guy like Christian Elliss has played 60%, 53.3%, and 72.4% of the defensive snaps this postseason. Similarly, Jack Gibbens only played 23.3% and 24% of the snaps in the first two playoff games, but did play 86.2% of the snaps against the Broncos.
That brings me to Woodson, who is essentially an every-down defender, playing 188 of the 193 defensive snaps in the three playoff games for the Patriots. He’s also been out there for 10 special teams snaps, so maybe we get a cheap tackle there. Woodson isn’t a stat sheet filler by any means, but he does have the opportunity based on his playing time to be around the football a good amount. Because his numbers aren’t what some of the other guys are on the Patriots defense, the vig isn’t heavy on either side of this number like it is for others and the Over makes sense to me by virtue of him being on the field probably the most of any defender in the back seven.
Kelley Bydlon
Drake Maye Over 36.5 Rushing Yards
Maye has exceeded this mark in two of the three playoff games, and he also did so in five regular season starts. The quarterback run has been a confident option for the Patriots and I don’t expect it to stop on Super Sunday. This bet is also about game state. I expect the Seahawks to be up the majority of the game and the Patriots playing catch up. I think that means less RB carries and a lot of Maye. Now, can the Seattle D hold up? Definitely. They only allowed Over this mark by three quarterbacks this season.
Sean Green
Seahawks -4.5
The narrative has been you don’t have to worry about the Patriots offense because they’ve played three top-10 defenses. Unfortunately, it’s not getting any easier on Super Bowl Sunday. The Seahawks defense is legit and will cause a ton of problems for the Patriots offense which has struggled in the postseason. Seattle has struggled with dominant outside WRs, but the Patriots don’t have a Puka Nacua to give the Seahawks.
On the other side, I do think the Patriots defense is underrated and there could be some chances to turn over Sam Darnold. That being said, the Patriots have shown an inability to capitalize on those turnovers in the playoffs against elite defenses. The mix of JSN, their pass-catching RBs and Barner will be enough to move the chains. Last but not least, in a one-score game, special teams can be huge. Seattle is #2 in DVOA on special teams and New England is 20th.
Mike Vrabel as a dog has been good over the years, however this team isn’t quite there yet. Unless he’s made the ultimate sacrifice guaranteeing a win, the Seahawks get it done.
Hunter Henry Over 3.5 Receptions
The Seahawks defensive weakness is pass catchers in the middle of the field. They’ve allowed 114 receptions to the TE this season and the Pats aren’t afraid to ride Henry. They don’t have the WRs to consistently win against the Seahawks and Henry will be their go-to in the passing game.
DeMarcus Lawrence MVP +12500
Drake Maye had six fumbles in his first two playoff games, thanks in big part to Will Campbell getting dominated. The snow and game flow neutralized the edge rushers, but I don’t think that will happen Sunday. The Pats can’t afford to chip Lawrence all game and he will get his chances against the rookie LT. Lawrence has nine forced fumbles this year, including three so far in the playoffs. I expect him to get to Maye and that could be the difference in a defensive-minded game.
Pauly Howard
SHORTEST TD UNDER 1.5 YARDS
TIME OF SHORTEST SCORING DRIVE OVER 59.5 SECONDS
JASON MYERS OVER 1.5 FGS
TREVEYON HENDERSON 50+ YARDS RUSH +675
Ryan Kramer
Seahawks -4.5
Seahawks -10.5 +225
Seahawks -14.5 +320
Seahawks -17.5 +435
Sam Darnold MVP +130
I LOVE how everyone is throwing the 2025-26 Seahawks (who, by the way, finished as the 7th-BEST TEAM of ALL TIME according to DVOA) into the same PILE as the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos whose offensive flaws stand out more than an electrical substation next to one of the NFL’s most injured teams’ practice facility. And I absolutely think that the Patriots defensive front will give the Seahawks running game trouble on a down to down basis as they are just a different unit with Milton Williams on the field. But, can the Patriots continue hitting on the inside straight draw, aka playing defense at an extreme outlier level (20th Def DVOA in the regular season)? Yes, but it seems unlikely due to the fact that they ARE NOT playing Justin ‘My offensive line is a joke’ Herbert, CJ ’The S2 Cognitive Test was right’ Stroud and Jarrett ‘Not as good as Sean Payton thought’ Stidham.
They are playing Sam ‘Grandson of Dick Hammer’ Darnold who, in spite of their mid (14th DVOA) run offense, was still able to lead ANOTHER TEAM to 14 wins while supporting the fifth-best passing attack (DVOA) in the NFL and unlocking JSN. I don’t think the Patriots defense will continue its HOT streak in the playoffs.
Vibes of Super Bowl XLVII when SEA took the Broncos, calling my shot 31-6.
George Holani Over 9.5 Receiving Yards, Kenneth Walker Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
The Patriots will blitz well because that’s their only move to try to get Sam Darnold off his spot. This will lead to another game where the RBS will be useful in the passing game as the hot read. Walker has gone over in 4 out of the past 5. Holani easily went over in the NFC Championship and was very close to having a HUGE game in the air.
Over 7.5 Punts
Neither one of these teams/defenses has given up many long time-consuming drives and layer in how low the Patriots offensive floor is in this one (Patriots TT Under also interesting).
Jensen Lewis
Patriots +4.5, Over 45.5
To believe in Sam Darnold, or not to? That, indeed, is the question. This game script feels like a classic defensive-minded setup, with early jitters and adrenaline abounding.
The Seahawks play to their DNA, stopping the run early on defense, leading to quick strikes on offense from Darnold and some chunk plays out of Kenneth Walker. It might be quite similar to what we watched transpire in the first quarter of the NFC title game. Drake Maye may be forced into early pressure, needing quick throws and scrambling out of the pocket to avoid losing field position. Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels, keenly aware of their youthful quarterback’s emotions, work to calm Maye down, while also making defensive adjustments to keep the Patriots within striking distance.
I’d expect a counter-punch from Maye and the New England offense, using his mobility and arm, leading some scoring drives in the second quarter. The defense forces Darnold into third-and-longs and potentially even creates a turnover to allow a game-tying or go-ahead field goal for the Patriots at the half.
Halftime tweaks have been Mike Macdonald’s bread and butter in the postseason and this game feels no different. The Seahawks stiffen up in the red zone, limiting the Patriots to field goal opportunities out of the locker room. It stays tight until Darnold engineers a long fourth quarter drive for the go-ahead score on a rope to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Maye gets the ball back, with about four minutes remaining and leads his offense into scoring range. However, the Seattle defense makes their final stand, turning the Patriots over on downs. Darnold, in victory formation, kneels it out and takes home the MVP award as the Seahawks celebrate a Super Bowl win.
Steve Makinen
Patriots +4.5, Under 45.5
I think that projecting the stats out on simulation is an important exercise in handicapping Super Bowl games. Since the planning is so rigorous, I believe it takes a lot of risk out of the coaches’ mindsets. I have found that the recipe for success in the Super Bowl comes down to controlling the time of possession, running the football, getting big plays through the air, and winning the turnover battle. Well, in my projections, I found that New England was due for a slight TOP edge (30:14-29:46), and an edge in rushing yardage (148.3-110.5), while Seattle should enjoy an edge in yards per pass attempt (6.34-6.03). The turnover differential is hard to project, but the fact that Seattle was next-to-last in the league in giveaways this season is a certain red flag. If New England does hold an edge in three of these four categories, we have to consider that teams that hold an edge in at least three of four key statistical categories are 41-6 SU and 37-9-1 ATS (80.4%) historically in this game.
I would also be absolutely remiss if I didn’t cite these recent trends in Super Bowl games.
1) The team that is the better playoff seed is just 2-17-2 ATS (10.5%) in the last 28 Super Bowl games!
2) Over the past 24 years, underdogs own a 18-6 ATS (75%) edge in the Super Bowl, including 14-4 ATS in the L18.
Why might this be? Well, perhaps because the Super Bowl is such a heavily bet contest by recreational bettors, and just “another game” for most sharps. Well, what do public, recreational bettors love to bet? FAVORITES and OVERS on totals. Now while these don’t always lose, for ’26, I do think we have to be aware that the most public of sportsbooks, DraftKings, is showing a betting disparity of 76% handle on Seattle, and 61% handle on OVER the total. Those numbers are scary and since these teams have both played heavier run tendencies of late, I’ll call for a slower-paced game.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 51.5 Rushing Yards
Despite the fact that the Seahawks’ run defense has been superb this season, I still believe that Patriots’ OC Josh McDaniels is going to lean heavily on his running game on Sunday, and that responsibility has turned almost exclusively into Rhamondre Stevenson’s lately, as he has enjoyed a phenomenal surge in the last season and has earned back the trust of his coaches. My stat forecast for this game calls for New England to get 149.8 yards rushing, which can be argued till we’re blue in the face, since I’m using a formula I have employed rather successfully in each of the last five Super Bowl games. I assume Stevenson will be the beneficiary of most of those yards, and my forecast had him getting 78+.
Patrick Meagher
Under 46.5
These are two great scoring defenses, and there’s been an obvious dip in production offensively from New England in the postseason. These are also two defensive-focused coaches with two weeks to scheme. Give me the Under.
Aaron Moore
George Holani Over 23.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
Against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, Holani had three catches for 27 yards on four targets. The one that he didn’t catch was set up for a long gainer.
New England’s interior defense has been stout, so Seattle may look for other ways to get its running backs involved. When Zach Charbonnet was healthy, the second running back was a major part of Klint Kubiak’s gameplan. Since that spot now belongs to Holani, who doesn’t have the same season-long stats as Charbonnet, his total here is lower than it should be for that role.
Mitch Moss
TreVeyon Henderson Over 0.5 Receiving Yards
Henderson 5+ Receiving Yards (+112)
Henderson 10+ Receiving Yards (+220)
I might keep climbing the ladder. 20+ is currently +630, and 30+ is at 12/1 as I jot this down. The Seahawks allowed the most receptions in the league to running backs during the regular season. That “weakness” has trickled into the offseason through two games. Christian McCaffrey had five catches for 39 yards in the divisional round; Kyren Williams and Blake Corum followed that up by each recording 20+ yards in the NFC Championship Game.
Here’s the kicker from our buddy Paul Charchian on Follow The Money: 18 out of 19 opposing number two backs have caught at least one pass vs. the Seahawks this year.
Mike Palm
Under 45.5
To defend this Seattle attack, Mike Vrabel need only look to November 30 when Brian Flores’ Vikings D held the home Hawks to 3.3 yards per play and JSN to two catches, while allowing one offensive touchdown. Drake Maye has not been sharp in the playoffs, and the Seahawks should create plenty of pressure.
Wes Reynolds
TreVeyon Henderson Over 0.5 Receptions
Henderson has failed to go Over his reception total in seven consecutive games dating back to Week 15 vs. Buffalo. Against Denver, he was shut out mainly due to the weather as Mike Vrabel put the ball in the hands of Drake Maye and Rhamondre Stevenson and let them lead the running game in the snow.
Although it is a decent tag on the price, this could be the buy-low for him against a Seattle defense that ranks second in EPA/Play and third in Pressure Rate. Sometimes, Maye will use his legs to avoid the pressure like he did vs. Denver, but Seattle runs predominantly zone coverage and allows the most targets to opposing running backs. Henderson will find some spots for Maye to bail out from the pressure.
Drake Maye Over 36.5 Rushing Yards
Maye’s rushing numbers in the AFC Championship Game (10 carries, 65 yards, TD) were likely somewhat weather-predicated, but consider he also ran 10 times for 66 yards in the Wild Card Round vs. the Chargers.
His designed run attempts have doubled since the late-season bye in Week 14, plus he is likely to be scrambling a great deal more against this Seattle defense that ranks third in Pressure Rate.
Dave Ross
Patriots +4.5, Over 45.5
I’m not buying this shoulder injury and, let’s be honest, the Patriots can’t play a whole lot worse than they have the last three times out against elite defenses in the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos. As long as Maye’s legs still work, he’ll generate offense both ways.
I have loved Seattle all year. They were the biggest play-on team for me before the season started. But this is a Paul Sorvino, “I gotta turn my back on you” play.
Sorry, Sam. I actually think he’ll play well. So will Drake. We should see more points than expected in one of the lower totals you’ll see in a Super Bowl. I’ll take the points in a game that should be closer to -2 than -5. And yes…I sprinkled a little on the Pats ML at +190 too.
George Holani Over 20.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
This was my favorite play vs. the Rams in the NFC title game at 14.5.
Books are catching on, but they’re a little late to the party. This is playable up to about 24.5 if you missed the good number…but after that the value is gone.
I love the way they sneak him out of the backfield and spell Kenneth Walker when need be. This is my favorite prop, by far.
Ed Sehon (aka Mr. Ed)
Patriots +4.5, Under 45.5, MVP: Andy Borregales +20000
As one who has experienced all 59 previous Super Bowls via television in a variety of viewing venues, i.e. a lecture hall at University of Miami, the Miami Herald newsroom, various LV sport books, clubs and several bars in and around Pittsburgh, PA and Western NC, and in the comfort of a several different homes, I have never experienced as little personal enthusiasm for the game as I have for SB LX. If the Patriots and Seahawks are the best of 32 teams the NFL has to offer, then perhaps I’ll pass on this one. The league promised parity — and they delivered mediocrity.
The best I can predict is a low-scoring event, punctuated by several turnovers, far too many penalties and missed scoring opportunities. I expect both offenses to struggle, as the unknown New England kicker Andy Borregales shines with five field goals.
If you think the above thoughts are nothing but the rantings of a bitter old guy, perhaps you are correct. In my mind I’ll leave SB LX for the young, while I pine for the days of the Steelers, Chiefs, Raiders and 49ers of old. And, where will I be on Sunday afternoon? In front of the TV watching the game with my wife of 55 years, some Buffalo Trace and a pair of felines. After all, how many more Super Bowls can this rabid NFL fan hope to experience? GO PATRIOTS!
Scott Seidenberg
Shortest Touchdown Under 1.5 Yards
This is my first bet to make every year on the Super Bowl as this bet has cashed in five of the last six years and eight of the last 10. In the two games that it did not cash, we had a two-yard touchdown and a three-yard touchdown. There are just so many ways this can cash. You can have a possession starting inside the five that becomes four-down territory and a team gets stuffed at the goal line and then scores. You could have a player dive for the pylon and get ruled out of bounds before scoring, and everyone’s favorite, a pass interference in the end zone setting up a play from the goal line. No matter how we get there, this one has been a cash cow for years, so I’m going back to the well.
Seahawks RB George Holani Over 10.5 Receiving Yards
We’ve already seen this number bet up from the open of 8.5 to 9.5 and now to 10.5 and even 11.5 in some books. While the Super Bowl is the most efficient market you’re going to find, the value can still lie in the lesser known pieces. The truth is, the books don’t know how to price Holani because we don’t have that many data points. In the NFC Championship Game, filling in for the injured Zach Charbonnet, Holani had three catches on four targets for 27 yards. More important than the production was the opportunities. Holani ran 14 routes in that game. Kenneth Walker, by comparison, ran 15 routes. While Walker’s receiving props have been taxed and taxed, Holani’s haven’t because of the uncertainty of where to start. But for the backup RB who has essentially the same opportunities as the starter to catch a pass, the value is in the lesser yard number with Holani.
Kenneth Walker 2 Touchdowns +300, Kenneth Walker 3 Touchdowns +1500
This is your Kenneth Walker MVP bet, without needing him to win the MVP. Sure, you can take a flyer on Walker to win the award but let me ask you an honest question, what is the likelihood that Walker wins the MVP with only one touchdown? He’d probably need over 150 scrimmage yards and the game to be low scoring. Instead, I’ll take my chances on Walker scoring multiple touchdowns. This way, you have outs. He can score twice or three times and not win MVP, or he does win and you either take a small hit on the price or get a better payout in the event he scores three times.
Seahawks -5.5 -102
This is NOT my best bet on this game, rather a recommendation. If you like the Seahawks to win and cover, DO NOT bet -4.5 at -110 or -115. Instead, play the alternate spread of Seahawks -5.5 at reduced vig. The reality is in the dead number of 5. Out of 283 wins this season including the playoffs, games landed on a margin of 5 just nine times. Going back to 2021, out of 1,419 wins, games landed on 5 only 59 times. Instead of laying -4.5, go with the -5.5 and save yourself some juice because this game is hardly ever going to land on 5.
Tyler Shoemaker
Under 45.5
While there is certainly data that would lend itself to the total being 45.5 looking at the season-long metrics and adjusting for opponents, the reduction in offensive efficiency and points per play scored and allowed by these teams in their last three games indicates we’re likely going to see a tighter, lower-scoring game. For instance, Seattle’s opponents averaged 62 plays per game against them during the season overall, but in the last three games have averaged just 53. Further, Seattle’s #1 points-per-play offense throughout the season saw a dip in its last three games from .490 to .462. Speaking to the O/U, New England’s points per play dropped from .440 to .281. Defensively, Seattle’s #1 defensive numbers got even better, going from .275 to .225 points-per-play allowed, while New England’s improved from .298 to .138. Bottom line, the numbers are trending in a positive way for the Under to cash in the Super Bowl.
Mike Somich
Seahawks Alt Lines: -9.5 (+150) -14.5 (+300)
Sure, we could have a great Super Bowl, but when you go group by group through these teams, Seattle has glaring advantages all over the place. In a game state where the Seahawks get an early lead, the tail to this being a blowout grows exponentially. I want to play into the variance here and lock up Seattle alternate lines at plus money.
Under 13.5 Players Record A Reception
While this may not be the most fun prop to play, I do think there is quite a bit of value here. There are seven players in the game who will definitely get a reception, but this handicap focuses mainly on the Seahawks’ usage. Over two playoff games, just seven players have targets. Bobo, Holani and Shaheed have a combined five catches in two games and Bobo and Shaheed have one catch each in two combined games. Neither is a lock to catch one here. This should be 11.5 with juice to the Over, instead its -115 both ways at 13.5. Play the Under.
Sam Darnold 230+ Passing, 2+ TDs +164
One of the advantages that the Pats do possess is being able to slow down the running game, as evident by the drop in the Walker rush yards line. That should translate to the Seahawks opening and leaning on the passing game. This is by far the most dynamic offense the Pats will face in the playoffs in the best weather conditions they will play in. If I like Seattle alt lines, I’m leaning into this passing game as well.
Dustin Swedelson
Patriots +5
I have been a long believer that Super Bowls are much closer to a coin flip than perception. There are so many more variables at play for this game: two-week build up, neutral site, outside distractions, different levels of nerves and pressure. So I usually look to the underdog if it makes sense. When I saw the line move from 3.5 to 5 while hosting Cashing Out, I immediately bet New England. Underdogs have cashed five straight Super Bowls, going 4-1 SU. Underdogs of 4.5+ points are 9-1 ATS since 2004.
Drake Maye joins a rare company making the Super Bowl in his second season. The others in this group: Dan Marino (1984), Kurt Warner (1999), Tom Brady (2001), Ben Roethlisberger (2005), Colin Kaepernick (2012), Russell Wilson (2013) and Joe Burrow (2021). Marino, Brady, Wilson, and Burrow were underdogs and went 3-1 ATS.
Almost all of the football reasons you look at in this matchup lean to Seattle, but there is something about the Patriots underdog rallying cry that I believe will pay off for them. Most importantly, the knocks against their schedule this year.
Everyone brings these up anytime they discuss the Patriots’ path to the Super Bowl:
- Seventh-easiest schedule of the Super Bowl era
- Combined records of every team they beat in the regular season was 85-150
- Faced the Chargers with no offensive line in Wild Card Round
- Hosted Texans with no offense in Divisional Round
- Took on Jarrett Stidham instead of Bo Nix in AFC Championship
The thing that nobody brings up about their schedule: It doesn’t matter. I know that because if they pull this off, it won’t be brought up again.
It’s like how nobody discusses the 1999 Rams, the Greatest Show on Turf, only faced one team to finish above .500 that regular season. It was the 13-3 Titans, who they lost to, and then beat in the Super Bowl.
How about the 1972 Dolphins? What is the talk about them? They’re the last undefeated team to win the Super Bowl. Well, they faced two teams above .500 on their run to immortality.
The more this is talked about the more it galvanizes the Patriots locker room. Combine that with Drake Maye likely finishing second in MVP voting…I love the mindset the Patriots will have for Sunday.
Kenneth Walker Over 21.5 Receiving Yards, Super Bowl MVP (+850)
This is a tough running matchup for Walker. But when you look at it from a receiving situation, this could be a good plan of attack for the Seahawks offense. New England finished the regular season fourth against the run, but allowed the sixth-most receptions and were 17th vs. the pass against RBs. In order to stay balanced, Seattle could use Walker as a pass catcher as an extension of the run game. That way Milton Williams and company can’t tee off on Sam Darnold. He has had 49 and 29 receiving yards in two playoff games this run.
With Zach Charbonnet out for the game, I’d expect the goal line work to go to Walker, which is his only path to MVP. If he can score two TDs in a low-scoring game, then he has a chance to win the award. Plus New England’s Achilles heel is their 23rd-ranked red zone defense. Seattle could get down to the red zone and ride him into the end zone. A RB hasn’t won MVP since 1997 and Terrell Davis. But, the path is there for Walker.
Hunter Henry Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
There aren’t a lot of holes in Seattle’s defense. But one area where they are susceptible is against TEs. They finished the regular season 28th and 27th vs. TEs in receptions and receiving yards, respectively. Hunter Henry has been a go-to guy for Drake Maye all season. With Seattle’s elite CBs, I’m not sure how open Stefon Diggs and company will be on the outside. Colby Parkinson had three catches for 62 yards for the Rams vs. the Seahawks in the NFC Title game and Jake Tonges had five for 59 yards for San Francisco in the Divisional Round. Factor in that New England is the underdog, that could mean more throws late to get Over this number if he doesn’t take advantage of this matchup early.
Brad Taylor
Under 45.5
There are many ways to attack sports betting. Some bettors rely on deep sport-specific knowledge, which is a valuable edge. Others focus on what the market is telling us—line movement, bet distribution, sharp resistance, and data. In games of this magnitude, that approach matters even more. One of the oldest rules in betting applies here: the bigger the game, the sharper the fade on the public. And there is no bigger betting event than the Super Bowl.
The total in this game presents a textbook line-freeze setup. The total opened at 45.5 and was quickly bet up to 46 early in the week. Since then, despite overwhelming public interest on the Over, the market has refused to move higher and has settled back at 45.5. According to VSiN betting splits, 75% of the tickets and 65% of the money are on the Over.
That’s the tell.
When the majority of bets and money are on one side—and the number doesn’t move with them—it’s a clear sign of sharp resistance. Books are comfortable taking Over money at this price. If they weren’t, this number would be 46.5 or higher by now. Add in outdoor conditions in San Francisco, where wind is a legitimate late-week variable, and the downside risk on the total becomes even more pronounced.
This is a classic Super Bowl setup: inflated public expectations, no upward movement, and professionals positioned on the opposite side. Under 45.5 is my strongest play on the board for Super Bowl LX.
Patriots +4.5
I’m also on New England. Underdogs have covered 18 of the last 24 Super Bowls, and the public is once again heavily stacked on Seattle. The spread follows the same theme as the total—public sentiment versus market reality. Fading the public in the Super Bowl has been profitable historically, and this spot checks every box.
George Holani Under 11.5 Receiving Yards
Holani finished last week with three receptions for 27 yards, yet his receiving prop is posted at just 11.5 this week. That’s not an overreaction—that’s a correction. This number opened below 10 yards and has only crept up slightly, despite recent box-score production. VSiN OptaAI shows a significant edge on the Under, and the market has consistently agreed.
When the numbers don’t move, believe the numbers—not the narrative. That’s the edge in the Super Bowl, and that’s how I’m attacking it.
Nick Whalen
Drake Maye Over 30.5 Pass Attempts
Despite finishing the regular season fourth in passing yards, Maye was not an overly high-volume passer, averaging only 28.9 attempts per game. That figure is considerably lower in three postseason games, but the Pats were able to grind out wins on the ground and defensively in adverse weather conditions. Long story short, game flow dictated that Maye wasn’t asked to do much.
Looking at this matchup against Seattle, I don’t foresee New England playing with a comfortable lead and being able to lean on the run, as it did against Houston and, especially, Denver. Seattle is the No. 1 DVOA defense – and rushing EPA defense – in the NFL, so I expect the Seahawks to mostly shut down the Pats’ rushing attack, forcing them to put the ball in the hands of Maye significantly more than they have in the three-game run-up to the Super Bowl.
Matt Youmans
Sam Darnold Over 29.5 Pass Attempts
Darnold’s redemption story is not quite complete, although the Seahawks quarterback is already being hyped as a conquering hero. Not so fast. He’s got to win one more game, and he will have to do it with his arm. New England is rock solid against the run, so coach Mike Vrabel will dare Darnold to beat his defense through the air. It’s a strategy that makes sense for several reasons because the more Darnold throws it, the more likely he is to make mistakes, and he led the league with 20 turnovers in the regular season. The Seattle coaches have confidence in Darnold to let it fly. He had 36 and 34 pass attempts in the past two games against the Rams and will probably need to throw it more than 30 times against the Patriots.
Kenneth Walker Under 73.5 Rushing Yards
The Darnold prop for pass attempts is tied into this one. The Patriots allowed 48, 79 and 87 yards rushing in the three playoff games — with Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert running for 57 of the 87 in the Wild Card Round. Walker had 19 carries for 62 yards (3.3 yards per carry) against the Rams in the NFC title game, and the New England front seven is stronger against the run than the other defenses Walker has faced in recent weeks. Walker went Over this posted total in only six of 19 games this season.
