NFL Super Bowl Best Bets
I split my two Best Bets of the NFL Conference Championship Round, losing with Baltimore but getting an ATS win with the Lions. For the season, with just my Super Bowl best bets remaining, I am standing at 85-61-2 ATS, good for 58.2% and +17.9 units of profit. However the upcoming Sunday winds up, this will go down as a successful NFL season, and I owe much of my success to the choice by VSiN to adopt the Analytics Reports. I look forward to continued success using those in a variety of sports. For the upcoming SB58 matchup between San Francisco and Kansas City, I have a play on the side, total, and two statistical props. So, let’s get to it.
San Francisco at Kansas City
The current state of the NFL has shown that how a team is playing lately typically trumps any type of “body of work” resume you consider. How else can you explain the recent success of teams like the Packers and Chiefs and the playoff failures of teams like the Cowboys and Ravens?
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I would have to group the 49ers in the latter, as not many people are talking about it, but head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team isn’t exactly clicking right now. In fact, in their last seven games, they are 5-2 SU but 2-5 ATS, with the two ATS wins coming over Arizona and Washington. The five losses were against the five teams they faced that had anything to play for, and they were in actual trouble in both playoff wins.
From a season-long perspective, it’s hard to argue that Baltimore and San Francisco weren’t the best teams. That said, I think the line for SB58 was built upon that premise over anything else. I’m not buying it and I don’t see the NFC champs flipping a switch on Sunday.
My primary concern for Shanahan’s team is its recent run defense, having allowed 137.5 RYPG in its last six. It’s been a physical overwhelming too, as Detroit and Green Bay literally owned the line of scrimmage versus them, and dynamic backs found open lanes to run through. Chiefs’ RB Isiah Pacheco is certainly capable of that and adds a level of physicality to it. My recent game simulation shows the SF defense forecast to allow about 5.1 YPR. A KC team that runs for that success alongside Mahomes is a very dangerous one.
Of course, we all know about the success of Mahomes in the underdog role, as he is 11-1-1 ATS in that role. There has also been a massive motivational edge that has come with being the underdog in this game, as over the past 22 years, underdogs own a 16-6 ATS (72.7%) edge, including 12-4 ATS in the last 16. On top of that, the best trend I know of for Super Bowl betting lately, and I’ve been touting this angle for probably about the last 10 times it has come up, is that the team with the better record in this game is on a 1-15 ATS skid! San Francisco was a game better in the regular season.
Looking at the game from a simple perspective, it would seem maddening to me to choose QB Brock Purdy over Mahomes, and not only because of the latter’s obvious career success so far. For me, it’s almost more because Mahomes has the luxury in this game of going against the lesser-performing defense.
I believe the Chiefs’ defense is the most important unit in this game and has played so well lately that it is actually my decisive factor. In fact, it could be argued that these defenses are headed in completely opposite directions. My simulated score model calls for the 49ers to score 20.69 points. My yardage model calls for them to get just 15.19. The last seven teams to score fewer than 20 points in the SB are 1-6 SU and ATS. By the way, the last time these models called for an outright underdog win was in 2020, when the Bucs routed head coach Andy Reid’s team.
That simulation article I referenced a few times now also has the Chiefs winning the time of possession battle, rushing for more yards as a team, and throwing for more yards per pass attempt. I assume the turnover battle will be close or negligible. In the history of the Super Bowl, teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 40-6 SU and 36-9-1 ATS (80%). I think the Chiefs win, and they do it by running the ball, mixing it with big pass plays, and limiting the 49ers offense.
Let’s go Chiefs +2 with some money line action, and a little lesser lean to an UNDER 47.5 on the total.
Super Bowl Stat Prop Best Bet #1
Isiah Pacheco Over 67.5 rushing yards
I think the Conference Championship win over the Ravens and the big game enjoyed by Travis Kelce has sent bettors, and oddsmakers for that matter, for a loop. Quite frankly, that may be the long-term way of the Chiefs and the way that most fans think they play, but it hasn’t been the strategy this team has adopted over the last few months.
Head Coach Andy Reid’s team has adopted a brand of dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The 2023-24 version of the Chiefs wins games by running the ball, getting a few big plays from QB Patrick Mahomes, and suffocating opposing offenses.
The primary beneficiary of that strategy lately has been Pacheco, who has been more involved in his team’s offense than RB Christian McCaffrey has been for San Francisco. In fact, in his last eight games, Pacheco has carried the ball at least 18 times in five games, with 15, 15, and 11 being the other totals. He has averaged 83 RYPG in that span and has topped the 67-yard mark six times in the eight contests.
The 49ers’ defense has also been shredded by opposing rushing games over the last five meaningful contests, allowing 143.2 RYPG. Pacheco has been running like a beast lately and, IMO, has an outside shot of being an MVP in this game at +2800 should KC roll.
Super Bowl Stat Prop Best Bet #2
Brock Purdy Under 245.5 passing yards
There are a lot of experts looking at this year’s Super Bowl as a matchup of QB Patrick Mahomes against the 49ers’ dynamic offense. However, I feel the unit being overlooked most in this game is the Chiefs’ defense, which has been nothing short of dominant in the last couple of months, just like in 2020 when these same teams met in the NFL title game. In that one, KC held 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo to 219 yards through the air.
My projection for this Sunday is 213 for Purdy. The most the Chiefs have allowed in any recent game was 255 last week to a desperate come-from-behind Ravens team. My forecast model shows that the expected KC defensive yards per attempt allowance is a little over 4.0, a miniscule number by NFL standards. I don’t think head coach Kyle Shanahan can put this game on Purdy and expect to win, so I think, win or lose, Purdy doesn’t make it to 245.
