Thanksgiving 49ers vs. Seahawks Week 12 odds and predictions
It’s Thanksgiving time and we’re getting some great Week 12 NFL matchups for it. The final game of the day features the Seattle Seahawks hosting the San Francisco 49ers at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington. The 49ers are coming off a blowout win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they’re currently sitting atop the NFC West standings. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off a close loss to the Los Angeles Rams. But they can make up for that by beating the Niners and moving into a tie atop the division. So, this is a massive matchup for both teams. With that out of the way, keep reading for our 49ers vs. Seahawks preview, picks and player props.
How To Watch 49ers vs. Seahawks
Date: Thursday, November 23
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
49ers vs. Seahawks Spread
Since Russell Wilson left Seattle, this series has been one-way traffic. The 49ers won and covered in all three of their meetings last season, and that included a 41-23 win for San Francisco in the NFC Playoffs. Geno Smith, who lit up plenty of teams in his first year as the Seahawks starter, didn’t find the same success against the 49ers secondary. Considering the quarterback is dealing with some elbow issues, it feels unfair to expect that to change — especially with San Francisco being sixth in the league in Defensive DVOA against the pass. I don’t think Kenneth Walker III’s absence — he’s listed as doubtful on our VSiN Injury Report — will be much of a factor here, as Zach Charbonnet is fully capable of filling in. But Seattle is going to have a hard time hanging around if the passing game isn’t clicking on all cylinders.
The Seahawks just don’t seem well equipped to stop this 49ers offense. In the playoff game last year, Christian McCaffrey rushed 15 times for 119 yards and he also caught two passes for 17 yards and a touchdown. He should once again turn in a big performance against a Seattle defense that is just a middle-of-the-pack unit when it comes to stopping the run. And I’d also expect a big game from Brock Purdy here. The Seahawks are just 25th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA against the pass, and Purdy has been in a groove lately. Purdy is coming off a game in which he threw for 333 yards with three touchdowns and no picks, and he had a maximum QB rating of 158.3. Now, Purdy faces a leaky secondary that he threw for 332 yards with three touchdowns and no picks against in the playoffs last year.
Seattle has made some improvements to its defensive backs group since last year’s postseason, but I don’t see them being enough to keep the team in striking distance — especially with the Seahawks being banged up right now. These are also the types of games in which you can generally trust San Francisco. The 49ers are 24-13 against the spread when facing winning teams in the second half of the season under Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco usually ramps up and starts playing great football at this time of year. This shouldn’t be any different, even with the Seahawks having a true home-field advantage.
49ers vs. Seahawks Total
Since Pete Carroll became the head coach of the Seahawks, the Over is 28-12 when Seattle is an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The average total points scored in those games also happened to be 50.2 points per game. On top of that, the Over is 27-15 when the 49ers have been favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points under Shanahan. And the average total points scored in those games was 47.9 points per game. I know trends don’t always mean much, but those feel telling considering the consistency across the two teams.
Seattle also happens to be first in the league in Offensive DVOA, and Seattle is 12th in the league in that regard. This is a matchup between an elite offense and a solid one, so the Over feels like the right call. And the fact that these teams combined to score 64 points in their playoff game last year is hard to ignore.
49ers vs. Seahawks Player Props
Brock Purdy Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120 – Play to -150)
Purdy has thrown for three touchdowns in back-to-back games, and he has just looked like a different quarterback since getting over his concussion issues. Now, Purdy faces a defense that he lit up in the playoffs last year, and the Seahawks haven’t improved enough against the pass to scare me off this matchup. That said, I love Purdy’s chances of throwing for at least two touchdowns here and I’m surprised there isn’t significant juice to take it. The Seahawks are going to do everything they can to avoid getting burned by McCaffrey, and that should present Purdy with some real opportunities.
49ers vs. Seahawks Prediction
When I first saw the line on this game, I thought the Seahawks might be getting too many points for a game in Seattle. However, the more you look at the statistical profiles of both of these teams, it’s hard not to like San Francisco to win somewhat comfortably. The recent head-to-head history is just a cherry on top. So, I’d suggest laying the points, even on the road.
Lean: 49ers -6.5
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting 49ers vs. Seahawks!