This is the VSiN Daily email for Sunday, November 17. Sign up for VSiN’s free daily email with free picks and insights like this one.
There is no doubt what the big game of the day is.
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Let’s see what VSiN’s crew has to say about it with the line fluctuating between Buffalo -2 or -2.5 vs. KC (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS):
First, I checked in with The Godfather of VSiN, Brent Musburger:
Bills 27, Chiefs 20: I would pick the Chiefs except for the injury to kicker Harrison Butker, whom I consider the best clutch kicker in the NFL. We don’t know how good the replacement is (Spencer Shrader) until lights are bright and they will be Sunday in upstate NY.
Catch Brent on the VSiN Pro Football Tailgate Show with hosts Tim Murray and Rich Gannon. Other guests: Michael Lombard with his usual acerbic insights, John Hansen with his best prop bets and Derek Stevens with the latest action from Circa. >>Download the new VSiN app to watch for free.
I sifted through the 10 Best Bets columns we have listed here to see which of our experts had opinions on KC-Buffalo.
Matt Youmans: It’s easy to make a case for Patrick Mahomes in the underdog role, something I did before the Super Bowl in February and got away with it. In this case, I’ll go with Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who’s 3-1 against Kansas City in the regular season. Allen has faced the Chiefs seven times, including the playoffs, and totaled 16 touchdown passes with three interceptions. Buffalo is a confident team riding a five-game winning streak. The Chiefs are pyromaniacs, winning seven games by seven points or fewer, and this time, they will play with fire and finally get burned. Bills -2.
Steve Makinen: I’ve fallen for it before, and I can’t do it anymore. I know Kansas City keeps getting “lucky” to stay undefeated and that, by all rights, Buffalo appears to be the slightly better team right now, but how do you get past a 17-1 ATS trend? If you’re not familiar, Kansas City is 15-3 SU and 17-1 ATS in its last 18 games as a road underdog. Let’s go Chiefs +2.
Dave Tuley: I was more than happy to jump on the Chiefs the last time they were 2.5-point road underdogs at San Francisco in Week 7. That was one of their easiest wins of the year when they beat the 49ers 28-12. They obviously get up for these big games. Chiefs +2.5.
Zach Cohen: This Kansas City team wants to run the football, but Buffalo is capable of taking that away. The Bills have a Rush EPA per play allowed of -0.143, which is the eighth-best mark in the league. And while Mahomes is already one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, do you think this passing game is capable of shredding an average Buffalo secondary? The Chiefs are just barely inside the Top 10 in Dropback EPA per play (0.139), and Mahomes has thrown for one or fewer touchdown passes in five of the nine games the Chiefs have played this year. It’s also a shaky group of pass-catchers right now. Bills -2.
Tyler Shoemaker: Yes, the Chiefs undefeated, so from a standings/résumé perspective, great, they’ve done what they had to do, so credit for that; however, we only care about betting around here, and that is where the Chiefs are overvalued at times, including this week against the Bills. TSI (power ratings) project Buffalo -3, which is a huge distinction in NFL betting. Play to -2.5.
And here is what we have on our NFL picks page, where we collect the plays from hosts and guests throughout the week.
Spread
Matt Youmans: Bills (-2)
Zach Cohen: Bills (-2)
Adam Schein: Bills (-2)
Steve Fezzik: Bills (+1) (pick made 10 days ago)
Geoff Schwartz: Chiefs (+2)
Adam Chernoff: Chiefs (+2.5)
Randy McKay: Chiefs (+2.5)
Marc Lawrence: Chiefs (+2.5)
Ryan Kramer: Chiefs (+2.5)
Weston Stradtman : Chiefs (+2.5)
Joe Ceraulo: Chiefs (+2.5)
Simon Hunter: Chiefs (+2.5)
Money Line
Tim Murray: Bills (-130)
Dustin Swedelson: Bills (-125)
Total
Joe Ceraulo: UNDER (46)
Tanner Kern: UNDER (46)
Paul Bovi: OVER (45.5)
Props
Pauly Howard: BILLS LONGEST FGM (+100)
Adam Schein: Khalil Shakir (Bills) OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
John Hansen: Khalil Shakir (Bills) OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Ryan Kramer: Josh Allen (Bills) OVER 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)
More Week 11 resources
>Look for Josh Appelbaum‘s Sharp Report later this morning.
Everything we post on Week 11 is here, including Makinen’s Analytics Report with system matches and trends.
Betting Splits for NFL Week 11
Above we show a comparison of the betting splits from DraftKings and Circa Sports for today’s NFL games. Steve Makinen has developed several betting systems by analyzing three years of data from the DK splits. The Circa splits are a new addition, but I look forward to what we can learn by comparing the data from a large “public” book (DK) vs. one with a reputation for “sharp” action. On this NFL splits page, you can toggle between the books.
Pro Tip: Based on what we have seen so far, the Circa splits tend to be more volatile in the hour leading into kickoff than we saw with DK’s numbers. So you should keep an eye on them for late action.
Contest Corner
With 105 entries after last week, the top Circa Survivor picks for Week 11:
Lions (vs. Jags) 34
Dolphins (vs. Raiders) 31
Packers (at Bears) 11
Vikings (at Titans) 11
Rams (at Pats) 7
Texans (at Cowboys) 5
49ers (vs. Seahawks) 4
Browns (at Saints) 2
The top Circa Million picks for Week 11:
Bengals (+2) at Chargers 2,072
Browns (+1) at Saints 1,830
Packers (-5.5) at Bears 1,712
Broncos (-2.5) vs. Falcons 1,554
Steelers (+3) vs. Ravens 1,551
>Go to our Circa contest resources page for the full consensus list and individual picks.
Quick Hits
College Basketball: Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
NBA: Zach Cohen will post his Best Bets later today on our NBA page.
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks by mid-morning on our NHL page.
