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VSiN senior editor Zach Cohen sums up the dilemma facing those interested in playing tonight’s Texans-Cowboys game (8:15 ET, ESPN):
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I don’t love laying 7 with a road team, but Dallas has lost its last two home games by a total of 66 points. This Cowboys team is fully capable of getting absolutely romped, and the Texans are a motivated team that is getting a little healthier. That could easily lead to a lopsided affair.
>>Zach previews the game and offers an alternative to betting on the spread.
Steve Makinen presents the case for the Cowboys/against the Texans (and the Under) using the trends in his Analytics report:
1) Home underdogs on MNF are on a run of 13-12 SU and 15-9-1 ATS (62.5%) dating to September 2021. The last 23 of these games have seen Under the total go 18-4-1 (81.8%) as well, games producing just 37.3 PPG.
2) Laying 7 points or more has not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 44-15 SU but just 19-38-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2012.
3) Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 36-33 SU but just 24-43-2 ATS (35.8%) in the last 69 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
If that weren’t enough, Dallas’ recent skid also sets up for a nice system to back them: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 20-25 SU but 28-15-2 ATS (65.1%) in their last 45 games versus non-conference foes.
There’s enough here for me to believe this one won’t be as easy as it seems.
Put Steve down for the Cowboys +7.
More MNF resources
>Look for Josh Appelbaum‘s Sharp Report later this morning.
>Injury report: Texans WR Nico Collins (hamstring) will play.
>NFL picks page, where we collect the plays from hosts and guests throughout the week.
Dave Tuley’s ATS report: Favorites went 8-4 straight up and 7-5 ATS Sunday; Overs were 7-5.
Turning the page: Adam Burke looks ahead to Week 12:
There are six teams on a bye, so we only have 13 games and eight of them feature road favorites, including one double-digit road favorite. Of the four favored home teams, three are laying more than a touchdown. So, yeah, we don’t have a lot of headline-grabbing games, but we have a lot of fascinating spreads and totals.
Contest Corner: Circa Survivor is down to 99 entries with five pending on the Texans. Four entries were eliminated with the 49ers’ loss to Seattle and two were ousted with the Browns’ loss to the Saints. (Can you really feel sorry for anyone who put their $135,866 golden ticket on the Browns?)
Quick Hits
College Football: Adam has some early Week 13 wagers he likes based on his updated power ratings.
College Basketball: Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
NBA: Zach Cohen will post his Best Bets later today on our NBA page.
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks by mid-morning on our NHL page.
