Top NFL Survivor picks for Week 10

November 7, 2023

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NFL Survivor picks for Week 10

Congratulations if you are still alive in Survivor, as you’ve reached double digits. Week 10 is upon us and there are a few choices, including a really obvious one if you are not in a contest that considers Thanksgiving to be its own week. This week is a weird one in that we have a bunch of lines on or below -3, but also some really big favorite roles.

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We’re finding out firsthand why having a blueprint for the season is a great idea, but also why being tied to it can be a problem. There are so many second and third-string quarterbacks starting this week and some will be out there for the foreseeable future. Everything is fluid in the NFL because injuries are inevitable and this season is proof of that.

As I’ve said, I’m playing this thing out for real until I lose a game. So far, so good. The picks have been Commanders (Week 1), Bills (Week 2), Chiefs (Week 3), 49ers (Week 4), Dolphins (Week 5), Rams (Week 6), Seahawks (Week 7), Ravens (Week 8), and Browns (Week 9).

Teams I’ve used will still go under the “Teams to Consider” heading for those who haven’t used them. Everybody will go back in the hopper when I do lose one. Also, I’m using “standard” Survivor rules, so one pick each week with none of the holiday gimmicks.

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NFL Survivor Picks to Consider

Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns

By virtue of being one of the bigger favorites this week, the Ravens get a mention. The Browns will have Deshaun Watson as opposed to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, so a repeat of the 28-3 drubbing in Week 4 may not be repeated, but the Ravens had success against the Browns defense in that one. They had two long, sustained scoring drives to finish out the first half and had 5.4 yards per play, which is good given Cleveland’s numbers.

The Ravens have won four in a row and topped 30 points in each of the last three games. It seems like the Todd Monken offense is working and the defense leads the league with 4.1 yards per play allowed. It’s not that Cleveland isn’t a solid team; it’s that the Ravens might be the best team in the AFC.

Cincinnati Bengals over Houston Texans

For those that have to worry about Thanksgiving, perhaps this is the play in Week 10. The Bengals look like the AFC juggernaut that we expected, as they took it to Buffalo in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the 24-18 final would suggest. The Bengals have ripped off four wins in a row and that includes dubs over three NFC West teams.

The Texans are coming off of CJ Stroud’s historic performance with 470 passing yards and five touchdowns, but the Buccaneers are not the Bengals. This is also a team that has lost to the Panthers and Falcons within the last four games. Houston’s strength is undoubtedly the pass. Cincinnati’s run defense has been well below average, ranking 27th in Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate against. However, the pass defense does rank 12th in Dropback EPA.

During a week where there aren’t a lot of pleasant options, the Bengals are definitely up there if you have to give Turkey Day a lot of respect.

Seattle Seahawks over Washington Commanders

The Seahawks laid a big egg in Baltimore, but they have the chance to bounce back right away against a team from the DMV. The Commanders beat the Patriots last week to improve to 4-5, but nobody will mistake New England for being a good team. The Commanders defense ranks 28th in EPA/play and 30th in Dropback EPA, so this has to be a good matchup for the Seattle offense.

Sam Howell was sacked three more times last week and has now been sacked 44 times on the year. This is also the type of game where Washington selling off Montez Sweat and Chase Young could come back to hurt them. It is less detrimental against a bad Patriots offense. It could be a much greater factor against the Seahawks, who are still a top-10 offense by yards per play.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Green Bay Packers

If you want a heart attack this week, Pittsburgh is an option. The Steelers play a ton of close games, so expect a nail-biter throughout, but many believe that the Packers are among the worst teams in the NFL. Their metrics aren’t all that bad, as they are 19th in EPA/play on offense and 16th on defense. They are +0.1 in yards per play differential.

But, they’ve also played a Charmin-soft schedule to this point. You could make a really compelling argument that Pittsburgh is the second-best team that they’ve faced, with Detroit being the best. The only hold-up here is that the Steelers play the Cardinals at home in Week 13, so that could be the place to use them. Of course, you have to make it there and who knows how Kyler Murray looks by then. Maybe the Patriots on a short week in Week 14.

Either way, I think you have to give them some thought.

Las Vegas Raiders over New York Jets

At time of writing, this is the first underdog I’ve put under consideration, but the Raiders looked like a completely different team last week under Antonio Pierce. They beat the Giants and enjoyed some victory cigars. Meanwhile, the Jets looked like the same old Jets in the loss to the Chargers, as Zach Wilson looked awful and Robert Saleh spent his post-game presser answering questions about the beleaguered signal caller.

Can you stake your Survivor entry on an underdog at this stage? Probably not, but the Jets do have to travel to Las Vegas on a short week after playing Monday Night Football. The vibes are a lot different around the Raiders, for whatever that’s worth. This is really the only week to even think about the Raiders, as they’ve got the Dolphins, Chiefs, Vikings, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, and Broncos left. Maybe the Raiders are a Week 18 consideration, but are you putting your Survivor life on the line on them on January 7?

Like I’ve said, you have to take 18 (or more) of 32 teams to win this thing. That requires taking chances sometimes.

NFL Survivor Pick for Week 10

Dallas Cowboys over New York Giants

I’m really going to blow your mind with this one, but it’s the week to take the Cowboys. Honestly, unless the Cowboys are your only Thanksgiving option, I think you have to take them here no matter what. This might be the biggest favorite role of the season and last week’s loss to Philadelphia adds a little desperation for Dallas to take care of business.

The Giants have one win since Week 2 and two wins on the season, including a game where they trailed by 20 at half and by 21 late into the third quarter. This wasn’t a good team with Daniel Jones and it sure as hell won’t be a good one without him. Tyrod Taylor is still out, so it will be Tommy DeVito and Matt Barkley.

Favorites of this magnitude have gone down before. I don’t think this one does.