Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 10 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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8:15 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 48.5)

The Dolphins (2-6) have dropped three straight games and just fell to the Bills 30-27 but managed to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Rams (4-4) have won three straight and just took down the Seahawks 26-20 in overtime, covering as 2-point road favorites.

The early opener for this game was Los Angeles -1 at home. Based on both team’s performances last week, we immediately saw the line shoot up to Rams -2.5. The public thinks this line is still way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Rams. However, despite receiving 75% of spread bets we’ve seen Los Angeles remain relatively stagnant at -2.5. In fact, this line briefly dipped down to Rams -1 before rising back up to Rams -2.5. We haven’t yet seen Los Angeles rise to the key number of -3, which is notable because the Rams are such a popular play. Reading between the lines it appears as though we’re seeing a sharp line freeze on the Dolphins, with the books reluctant to raise the line any higher for fear of giving out a better number to contrarian Miami backers.

The Dolphins are offering notable “bet against the public” value, as they are only receiving 25% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. The Dolphins have classic buy-low value as a dog on a 3-game losing streak against a sell-high favorite on a 3-game winning streak. Road dogs are 48-41 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI this season. Primetime road dogs are 99-78 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2019. Ron Torbert, the lead ref, is 57% ATS to the road team historically. Those looking to go contrarian and back Miami would be wise to hold out for a +3, as the the market is juicing up Rams -2.5 (-115). Miami is also a prime candidate for a Wong Teaser. By taking the Dolphins up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy bettors are able to pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. One big injury to monitor is WR Tyreek Hill, who is a game-time decision with a wrist injury.

Sharp money has also come down on the under, dropping the total from 50 to 48.5. This downward movement is especially notable because the public is playing the over (59% of bets), yet the total has dropped. This is evidence of wiseguy under reverse line movement. When the total is 48 or more, the under is 17-13 (57%) with an 8% ROI this season. Primetime games with a total of 47 or more are 26-15 (63%) to the under with a 22% ROI since 2022.

Player Prop to Consider

Demarcus Robinson Over 28.5 receiving yards (-110): Robinson has gone over this number in 6 of 8 games this season. He had 6 catches for 94 yards last week against the Seahawks, ranking second on the team in targets with 9. He is second on the team in receiving yards (327), trailing only Tutu Atwell (366). Robinson is third on the team in targets this season (38), trailing only Atwell (39) and Cooper Kupp (49). With Miami’s top cornerback Jalen Ramsey expected to shadow either Kupp or Puka Nacua, this means Robinson may enjoy some favorable matchups against lesser Dolphins defenders. We’re also looking at a game with a high total in a dome, which bodes well for offensive production.

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