The NFL Playoffs kick off today with a pair of Wild Card games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:30 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams (-10.5, 45.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Rams (12-5) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 37-20 win over the Cardinals, covering as 14.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Panthers (8-9) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Buccaneers 16-14 but managed to cover as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 10-point road favorite.
Early action laid the points with the Rams, pushing Los Angeles up from -10 to -10.5. However, on gameday we are seeing some respected buyback on the Panthers plus the hook, as most shops are juicing up Carolina +10.5 (-115 or -120) and a few others are falling back down to +10.
At DraftKings, the Rams are receiving 41% of spread bets and 55% of spread dollars. However, at Circa the Panthers are taking in 41% of spread bets but a whopping 85% of spread dollars, indicating heavy smart money grabbing the points with the home dog out in Vegas.
Playoff dogs are 60-38 ATS (61%) with a 19% ROI since 2017. Wild Card dogs are 27-15 ATS (64%) with a 25% ROI since 2017.
Wild Card dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Panthers here, are 21-9 ATS (70%) with a 36% ROI since 2017.
Bryce Young is 12-6 ATS (67%) with a 27% ROI as a home dog in his career.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down from 46.5 to 45.5, with some shops touching 45 on gameday.
This downward movement is notable because the public is pounding the over (66% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell.
At Circa, the under is receiving 40% of bets and 75% of dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Wild Card unders are 25-17 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2017. Outdoor playoff unders are 40-33 (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2017.
Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for mid 60s with 10-15 MPH winds and possibly some rain showers.
When the wind blows 10 MPH or more in a playoff game, the under is 12-7 (63%) with a 20% ROI since 2017.
8 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 44.5) at Chicago Bears
The Packers (9-7-1) have dropped four straight and just fell to the Vikings 13-3 but managed to cover as 13.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Bears (11-6) have lost two in a row and just came up short against the Lions 19-16, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening the Bears a slight 1-point home favorite.
Respected money has sided with Green Bay, driving the Packers up to a 1.5-point road favorite.
At DraftKings, the Packers are only receiving 32% of spread bets and 38% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor.
However, Vegas is telling a different story as Circa is showing 69% of spread bets and a hefty 87% of spread dollars on Chicago plus the points.
Wild Card dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Bears here, are 21-9 ATS (70%) with a 36% ROI since 2017. Short playoff dogs +3 or less are 26-10 ATS (72%) with a 41% ROI since 2017.
Chicago has additional betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Primetime dogs went 32-24 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI this season and have gone 11-8 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI in the postseason since 2020.
Those looking to back the Bears but also gain some added protection in the event of a close game could look to target Chicago in a classic “Wong Teaser.” By teasing Chicago up from +1.5 to +7.5, savvy value-minded bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
We’ve also seen a steady dose of respected money hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44.5.
At DraftKings, 45% of bets and 47% of dollars are on the under. At Circa, 63% of bets and 72% of dollars are on the under. Both books are showing a sharp split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Weather is also a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 30s/high 20s with 15 MPH winds and gusts up to 25 MPH along with possibly some snow showers.
When the total falls 2-points or more, the under is 12-6 (67%) with a 29% ROI in the postseason since 2017.
Super Bowl Champion (DraftKings)
Seahawks +330
Rams +425
Broncos +650
Patriots +900
Eagles +950
Bills +1000
Texans +1200
Jaguars +1300
Packers, Bears +2500
49ers, Chargers +3000
Steelers +5000
Panthers +20000
