Week 3 of the NFL regular season is here with 13-games to choose from today. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (-1.5, 46.5) at Minnesota Vikings

The Texans (2-0) just took down the Bears 19-13 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (2-0) just upset the 49ers 23-17, winning outright as 4.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Houston listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Texans. However, despite receiving 69% of spread bets we’ve seen Houston fall from -3.5 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Minnesota, as the line is moving in their favor despite being the unpopular side receiving only 31% of spread bets. The movement toward the Vikings has also been steady all week, consistently dropping in their favor without any discernible Houston buyback. When two undefeated teams face off in Week 3, the home dog is 9-4 ATS (69%) since 2007. Those interested in backing the sharp Minnesota move but looking to gain some added security in what might be a close game could instead elect to play the Vikings in a “Wong Teaser” (+1.5 to +7.5), which passes through the two key numbers of 3 and 7. C.J. Stroud is 5-2 ATS (71%) as a dog but just 3-7 ATS (30%) as a favorite in his career.

1 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-3, 37.5)

The Packers (1-1) just edged the Colts 16-10, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Titans (0-2) just fell to the Jets 24-17, failing to cover as 4-point home dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks “the wrong team is favored” and they’re hammering Green Bay plus the points. However, despite 64% of spread bets taking Green Bay we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Tennessee -1.5 to -3. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the Titans, with pros fading the trendy dog Packers and instead backing the short contrarian home favorite. Tennessee is only receiving 36% of spread bets but 63% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Teams that are 0-2 have gone 38-22 ATS (63%) with a 23% ROI in Week 3 since 2017. Those looking to follow the sharp Titans move but wary of laying the points in what might end up being a close game could instead play Tennessee on the moneyline at -155. Sharps are also leaning under, as the total has fallen from 39.5 to 37.5. Only 52% of bets but 62% of money is playing the under.

4:05 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5, 41.5)

The Dolphins (1-1) just got rolled by the Bills 31-10, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (2-0) just beat the Patriots 23-20, pushing as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Seattle and fade Miami, who will be without star QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion). However, despite receiving 68% of spread bets we’ve seen Seattle tumble from -6.5 to -4.5. Some shops are even inching toward Miami +4. This indicates smart money going contrarian and grabbing Miami plus the points. Road dogs are 14-10 ATS (58%) so far this season and 517-435 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. The Dolphins enjoy a notable 3-day rest advantage, having played last Thursday while Seattle played last Sunday. Land Clark, the lead ref, is 52-41 ATS (56%) to the road team historically. This is also a classic “buy-low, sell-high” value play on Miami, who just got blown out and lost their quarterback while Seattle is coming off a win. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 89-66 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2018.

4:25 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions (-3, 51.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Lions (1-1) just fell to the Buccaneers 20-16, losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites. Conversely, the Cardinals (1-1) just crushed the Rams 41-10, cruising as 1-point home favorites. This line opened with Detroit listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with Detroit in a “bounce back” spot. However, despite receiving 53% of spread bets we’ve seen the Lions fall from -4.5 to -3. In addition, most books are juicing up Cardinals +3 (-115), signaling further liability on Arizona and possible dip down to +2.5. This indicates sharp action on the Cardinals plus the points, as we’ve seen consistent one-way movement in their direction from the outset. Arizona has value as a “dog who can score” (averaging 34.5 PPG, 2nd in the NFL), thereby keeping pace or securing a backdoor cover. Conference home dogs +4 or less are 136-107 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2018. Kyler Murray is 26-14 ATS (65%) with a 25% ROI as a dog in his career.

4:25 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 44.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The 49ers (1-1) just fell to the Vikings 23-17, losing outright as 4.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Rams just fell to the Cardinals 41-10, failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public still believes in the 49ers and is happy to fade the Rams off a blowout loss. However, despite receiving 65% of spread bets we’ve seen San Francisco plummet from -7.5 to -6.5. Several shops are juicing up Rams +6.5 (-115), signaling a possible further drop to +6. Essentially, all movement and liability is on Los Angeles plus the points. Dogs +6.5 or more are 8-1 ATS (89%) this season and 57-42 ATS (58%) since 2022. Divisional dogs are 208-179 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2020, as the built in familiarity levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 89-66 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2018. The 49ers are suffering a plethora of injuries and will be without Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, while Nick Bosa is questionable.

8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The Chiefs (2-0) just outlasted the Bengals 26-25 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Falcons (1-1) just upset the Eagles 22-21, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is all over the Chiefs, who are receiving 79% of spread bets. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Kansas City fall from -4.5 to -3. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Atlanta, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular side. The Falcons are only receiving 21% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime Sunday Night Football game, offering notable “bet against the public” value. Primetime dogs are 123-95 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2020. Those looking to go contrarian and back Atlanta would be wise to hold out for a hook, as the Chiefs are currently -3 (-115), signaling a possible rise up to -3.5 between now and kickoff tonight. Sharps also seem to be leaning under, as the total has dipped from 47.5 to 46.5. The under is only receiving 31% of bets but 51% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy. Primetime unders are 5-3 (62%) so far this season and 165-110 (60%) since 2019.

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