July is flying by and NFL Training Camps are set to begin in just a few short weeks. Before you know it, we will have preseason games and then Week 1 of the regular season will be upon us. As a result, now is a great time to begin looking at NFL Win Totals, specifically examining the ticket and handle splits from BetMGM in order to identify which way the smart money is leaning.
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Houston Texans Over 9.5 wins (-140)
The Texans were one of the major surprises of 2023, going 10-7, winning the AFC South and winning a playoff game before falling to the Ravens in the Divisional Round. The Texans opened the offseason with a win total of 9.5 with the under juiced to -120. Over the summer, we’ve seen the juice completely flip from 9.5 under -120 to 9.5 over -140. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “under to over” juice movement, indicating heavy money came in on the Texans to win 10-games or more. The over 9.5 is receiving 87% of bets and 99% of money, indicating both Pro and Joe support as well as a 12% “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy. Houston’s coach/quarterback combination of DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud are entering their sophomore seasons after putting up highly successful rookie campaigns. The Texans also made some notable offseason additions, adding WR Stefon Diggs, RB Joe Mixon and signing DE Danielle Hunter. Houston also enjoys playing in a relatively weak division, as the Texans’ win total (9.5) is higher than the Jaguars (8.5), Colts (8.5) and Titans (6.5).
Atlanta Falcons Over 9.5 wins (-135)
The Falcons finished 2023 with a disappointing 7-10 record, finishing 3rd in the NFC South and missing the postseason. However, there is optimism for a rebound in 2024. Atlanta’s win total for the upcoming season opened at 9.5 with the over juiced to -125. We’ve since seen the over juice rise from -125 to -135. However, what’s particularly interesting about this juice movement is the fact that the public isn’t believing in the Falcons, yet the wiseguys are. Currently 56% of tickets are taking the under 9.5 wins, yet 57% of dollars are taking the over 9.5 wins. In other words, we are looking at a sharp contrarian over 9.5 play, as the over is only receiving 44% of bets but 57% of money and the juice rose in favor of the “low bets, higher dollars” split. Reading between the lines, pros seems bullish on new QB Kirk Cousins leading an already explosive group of skills players to the next level. Atlanta drafted QB Michael Penix Jr with the 8th overall pick as insurance and also added depth WRs Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore in free agency. The Falcons also have the benefit of playing in a weak division, as their win total of 9.5 is higher than the Saints (7.5), Bucs (7.5) and Panthers (5.5). The Falcons have the easiest schedule in the NFL, as their opponents went a combined 131-158 (.453) last season.
Chicago Bears Over 8.5 wins (-165)
After finishing a putrid 3-14 in 2022, the Bears improved to 7-10 in 2023. Now they look to take off after drafting QB Caleb Williams 1st overall and WR Rome Odunze 9th overall. While banking on a team to go over their win total behind a rookie quarterback isn’t typically a wise decision, the betting market seems high on Chicago. Entering the offseason, the Bears’ win total was 8.5 with -110 juice on both sides. Over the course of the summer, we’ve seen the over 8.5 get juiced up from -110 to -165, a notable 55-cent jump. The over is receiving 64% of bets and 83% of dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 19% “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy. In addition to adding Williams and Odunze, the Bears also picked up WR Keenan Allen, RB D’Andre Swift and TE Gerald Everett to add to WR DJ Moore. The Bears have the 3rd-easiest schedule in the NFL, as their opponents went a combined 135-154 (.467) last season. Matt Eberflus enters his 3rd season as the Bears’ head coach. Shane Waldron takes over as the new Offensive Coordinate, replacing Luke Getsy.
