Tuley: Tuesday Best Bets, Contest Corner, early NFL Week 16 pick


Monday was a day of getting a head-start on some writing in the Tuley’s Takes home office for next weekend’s NFL Week 16 that starts with even more Saturday games on the holiday weekend, plus catching up on some rest from a non-stop sports betting weekend.
I also took my oldest kid, Jordyn, to the dentist and did some Christmas shopping, so no rest for the weary!
But as is customary on Monday’s during football season, the day all led up to the Monday Night Football game. Unfortunately, we lost our Best Bet of the day on the Rams +7 as they lost 23-14 to the Packers. For more details on that game, check out my weekly recap at VSiN.com as we also update our betting stats on NFL Week 15 and for the season (those are also below in our daily recaps).
That loss snapped a 6-day winning streak (our last prior loss was on the Cardinals/Over teaser last Monday night), but we’re still 34-18-1 ATS (65.4%) with our daily top play the last 53 days. Our Sunday night picks on “The Greg Peterson Experience” also dipped to 31-15 ATS (67.4%) since the start of football season and 18-6 ATS (75%) since the start of November..
Let’s get to those Monday’s recaps – including a peek into Contest Corner including Circa Survivor being down to 14 left in the record $6.133 million prize pool –  and then give our Best Bets for Tuesday, plus our early plays for the week with a college bowl game on Wednesday and one early NFL Week 16 pick.

NFL Quick Links:
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Monday Recaps

NFL: Packers beat Rams 24-12 on Monday Night Football to wrap up NFL Week 15, covering as popular 7.5-point home favorites. The game stayed Under consensus closing total of 39.5 points as Aaron Rodgers took knees after Packers gained clinching 1st down at Rams’ 1-yard line.

More NFL: Favorites went 12-4 SU in NFL Week 15, but underdogs still led 9-6-1 ATS with the push in the Chargers’ 17-14 win vs. the Titans as 3-point home faves. The outright upsets were by the Jaguars (+4 vs. Cowboys), Steelers (+3 at Panthers), Lions (+2.5 at Jets) and the Giants (+4 at Commanders on Sunday Night Football). Home teams went 9-7 SU, but road teams led 8-7-1 ATS. Over/Unders split 8-8.

More NFL: On the season, faves lead 142-76-2 SU with 4 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 117-96-7 ATS (54.9%). Home teams lead 120-96-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 108-103-6 ATS (51.2%). Unders lead 122-100-2 (55%) while primetime Unders improved to 27-19-1 (58.7%)

CFB: Marshall beat UConn 28-14 in Myrtle Beach Bowl and held on to cover as 12-point favorite (the game pushed on the Over/Under of 42 points). Overall, faves lead 7-3 SU, but faves/dogs have split 5-5 ATS with Miami-Ohio and North Texas covering in SU losses. Under lead 6-3-1.

NBA: Faves/dogs split 4-4 SU with Bucks-Pelicans closing pick-’em, but dogs led 6-2 ATS. The upsets were by the Hornets (+10 at Kings), Timberwolves (+5.5 vs. Mavericks), Spurs (+4.5 at Rockets) and Thunder (+4 vs. Blazers). The Raptors (+6.5) and Magic (+8.5) covered in SU losses. Home teams 6-3 SU, but road teams 5-4 ATS. Overs 6-3.

More NBA: On the season, faves lead 292-159 SU with 9 games closing pick-’em, but dogs improved to 228-208-15 ATS (52.3%). Home teams lead 282-178 SU and 234-211-15 ATS (52.6%). In totals wagering, Overs retook lead at 229-226-5 (50.3%).

NHL: Faves went 4-3 with Blues-Canucks closing pick-’em. The upsets were by the Sabres (+135 at Golden Knights), Canadiens (+100 at Coyotes) and Predators (-105 vs. Oilers). Home/road split 4-4. Unders 4-3-1. On the season, faves lead 298-195 with 15 PKs. Home teams lead 260-244 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders lead 250-239-19.

Contest Corner

With Packers winning on MNF, Circa Survivor has 14 live entries heading to NFL Week 16/"Christmas Week" gauntlet as contestants must pick 1 winner from the games on Thursday and Saturday and then, if they survive, another on the games on Christmas (Sunday) or Monday night. The equity for each remaining entry is $438,071.43​. NFL Week 15 started with 30 live entries and the only losers were the week-high 16 that used the Commanders vs. the Giants on Sunday Night Football.

Circa Sports Million has a new leader as KING-BRUTUS-1 went 4-1 in #NFL Week 15 to improve to 52-20-3 (72.2%) and move 1.5 points ahead of a trio tied for 2nd place: Enut34-1, Look Ma No Hands-1 and SEAN 1923-2.

SuperContest has a tie for 1st place as SA247LLC went 4-1 in NFL Week 15 to improve to 52-22-1 (70.3%) and catch HEINEKEN 21 with 52.5 contest points (1 point per win, 0.5 per push). JORD20 has a 2-point lead in SuperContest Gold, the $5,000-per-entry version of SC.

Tuesday Best Bets

Rangers +130 at Penguins: This is an anti-swagger play against the Penguins, who just had their 7-game winning streak snapped by the Hurricanes on Sunday, but we also get the red-hot Rangers, who are on a 7-game winning streak of their own, as juicy underdogs.

Nuggets +1.5 vs. Grizzlies: This is another anti-swagger play as the Grizzlies just had a 7-game winning streak snapped on Sunday at the Thunder, plus we also get the Nuggets as short home dogs led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 25.2 points per game and is coming off a 40-point effort against the Hornets.

NFL Week 16
Falcons +7 at Ravens: This line is now up to +7.5.

Early CFB Bowl Best Bet
Wednesday: Western Kentucky +4.5 vs. South Alabama