Tuley’s Takes – NFL Preseason Week 2:
We’re happy to report that the football season is off to a nice start in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Our Best Bets went 4-2 ATS in our Preseason Week 1 column last week (leans split 1-1 ATS as we started hot right out of the gate last Thursday with the Lions +6.5 at the Bengals and Cardinals +1.5 at the Raiders, lost a lean Friday on the Falcons +5 vs. the Broncos and started Saturday slow with losses on the Panthers +1 at the Bills and Giants +2.5 vs, the Vikings but finished strong with a winning lean on the Jaguars +3.5 at the Saints and Best Bets on the Ravens +3 vs, the Eagles and Cowboys +3,5 at the Seahawks.
Actually, we shoulda done better as underdogs went 9-5-1 straight-up (the Colts-Patriots game ended in a 13-13 tie) and dominated 12-3 ATS. For my @ViewFromVegas betting recaps on Twitter/X, I graded the Chargers-Texans game as closing pick ’em, so don’t be surprised if you see others saying dogs were 13-3 ATS. Unders also dominated at 12-4, so I wish I hadn’t stayed away from totals.
We did benefit from not betting early, as the line moves went down again and again (0-8 ATS on line moves of 3 points or more, though the earliest steam did cash on the Colts and Titans before they failed to cover vs. the closing number), so it’s been profitable to wait until game time to fade the market.
But enough looking back. We have a full 16-game slate on Thursday through Sunday for Preseason Week 2.
Las Vegas pick ’em at Houston
This line opened pick ’em and has gone to -1 on both teams at different books, so it’s still basically PK. With the Raiders not expected to play starting QB Kirk Cousins much, I’d be fine with backing them with No 1 draft pick Fernando Mendoza or former starter Aidan O’Connell, especially against Houston’s second- and third-string later in the game. Definitely applying my “dog or pass” approach here and will only take the Raiders plus a point or two.
Best Bet: Raiders +1 or better
San Francisco -1.5 at Los Angeles Chargers
49ers coach Mike Shanahan said Wednesday that Brock Purdy and other starters will see some action, so this line has flipped from Chargers -1,5 to 49ers -1.5. The line moves have been crashing and burning so far this preseason, but the only play would’ve been to take the 49ers early. Hard pass.
Best Bet: Pass
New York Jets -1.5 at Pittsburgh
I wrote last week that I came into the preseason seeing the Jets as a play-on team with Cade Klubnik, Brady Cook and Bailey Zappe battling for backup spots behind Geno Smith. Unfortunately, the money has been coming in on them this week as this line moved from Steelers -3 to the Jets now being favored.
Best Bet: Pass
Carolina -1.5 at Jacksonville
This line has also flipped, which is a shame after we cashed on the Panthers vs. the Bills after they had a game under their belt from the Hall of Fame win. Pass here.
Best Bet: Pass
Green Bay at Denver -6.5
The Packers were blown out 28-9 last week, but Jordan Love is expected to play a little, and I’m OK with Tyrod Taylor. This line opened as low as 4.5, so I have no problem fading it as we’re up to nearly a full touchdown, which seems crazy for a preseason game.
Best Bet: Packers +6.5 or better
Washington at Detroit -4.5
The Lions don’t play their starters, but they were good enough to cover for us as 6.5-point dogs last Thursday. With Joshua Dobbs expected to play more, I see why this line has gone from Lions -2.5 to -4.5 (though 3 is not as key a number in preseason), but I’m certainly willing to fade this move, too. Sam Hartman looked good in leading the Commanders to a 20-7 win over the Dolphins.
Best Bet: Commanders +4.5
Atlanta at Indianapolis -3.5
We’re still not going to see the QB battle between Michael Penix Jr. andTua Tagovoila. You know I won’t be laying the points with the Colts, but not enough reasons to take the Falcons either.
Best Bet: Pass
Baltimore at Minnesota -3.5
With the Vikings having Kyler Murray vs. J.J. McCarthy (plus Carson Wentz, who led the team with 14 pass attempts in the Preseason Week 1 win over the Giants), we get why the Vikings are favored here. However, even though our handicap of the Ravens’ win last Saturday boiled down to “even though coach [John] Harbaugh is gone, there’s still plenty of Baltimore players that are still around that are used to trying to win preseason games,” we’ll fire back with them here. I was expecting more from Tyler Huntley last week (6-for-7), but Joe Fagnano also played well (22-for-28, 224 yards, TD), and I expect the Ravens to be all out for the win again.
Best Bet: Ravens +3.5
Buffalo at Cleveland -3
We do get the QB battle between Shedeur Sanders (starting this week) and Deshaun Watson (started last week). That’s why the Browns are home favorites here, so I’ll pass on them. With Josh Allen and the Bills’ starters not expected to play much here, I’ll pass on the dog as well.
Best Bet: Pass
New Orleans -3 at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are tempting here as dogs (especially after opening as short home chalk) with Ty Simpson and Stetson Bennett IV, but the Saints have a battle for Tyler Shough’s backup between Spencer Rattler and Zach Wilson, so I’m not going to fade them here.
Best Bet: Pass
New York Giants -2.5 at Miami
This line has stayed pretty solid at Giants -2.5 since opening. Both teams seem to be nursing their QB rooms, and I’m not sure what we’ll see here. I lean to the dog but not sure I wanna trust Cam Miller and Mark Gonowski.
Best Bet: Lean Dolphins +2.5 but probably Pass
Philadelphia -2.5 at New England
Both offenses struggled with backups in their respective openers, so we’d expect both to try to have more success. However, we’re not hearing much on who’s gonna play and how much (and doubt we’ll see Jalen Hurts vs. Drake Maye), so I’m sitting this out as well.
Best Bet: Pass
Chicago -1.5 at Cincinnati
Last Saturday, the Bears blew out the Browns 34-10 as head coach Ben Johnson let assistant head coach/receiver coach Antwaan Randle El call the plays, and Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent combined for 320 yards and three TDs. This line has gone from Bengals -1.5 to Bears -1.5, probably due to that. I’m not going to fade that move either.
Best Bet: Pass
Kansas City at Tampa Bay -5.5
The Buccaneers beat the Jets 24-16 last Friday night, and I wish I had seen that coming as 5.5-point underdogs. Jalon Daniels and Connor Bazelak played well and Baker Mayfield might start, so that’s why this line is so high, However, I have to think the Chiefs, who didn’t show much in their 20-12 loss to the Rams, will be a little more focused this week, so we’ll back them with the inflated points (bet up from -3.5) with Justin Fields and Garrett Nussmeier probably taking most of the snaps.
Best Bet: Chiefs +5.5
Dallas at Arizona -1.5
The Cardinals have scored 30 and 27 points, respectively, in their two preseason games, so that’s why they’re favored and a lot of bettors are looking to back them (at least until the regular season starts) However, Dallas still has a QB battle for second string behind Dak Prescott between Joe Milton and Sam Howell and they combined to go 20-of-27 for 201 yards and two TDs in winning for us last week, so we’ll back them again..
Best Bet: Cowboys +1.5
Seattle at Tennessee -4.5
This line has climbed from Titans -2.5 to -4.5 with a QB rotation of Cam Ward, Will Levis and Mitchell Trubisky (practiced Wednesday after being hurt on Monday). It’s tempting to fade this move, but I bet against the defending world champs because I couldn’t see them getting motivated for a preseason game, and they lost 17-7 to the Cowboys. I’ll pass here, too.
Best Bet: Pass
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