UFC Sacramento Predictions:
This week, Sacramento is the host city for UFC Fight Night Hernandez vs. Rodrigues. This fight card is scheduled for 13 bouts, six of which feature athletes with the highest finish rate; that’s the 170-pound to Heavyweight divisions of the UFC.
Ten fighters travel from abroad to compete against domestic athletes, so monitoring those weight cuts and fight-week developments is important. Four Californians will compete on the card: two facing one another (Emmers vs. Douglas) and the other two face combatants from Canada and Brazil.
Last week, MacKenzie Dern (- 220) displayed the world-class fight acumen we discussed in our breakdown to thoroughly dominate Canadian Gillian Robertson, who was in over her head from the moment this fight was announced.
The only actor that had a worse night than Robertson was her cornerman Din Thomas, who provided five rounds of absolutely unmotivating backup to his fighter. In fact, between the fourth and fifth rounds of the fight, it was clear that Thomas was embarrassed at what was transpiring, and he took it out on his fighter.
In the fight game, sometimes an athlete hits the octagon with a blank stare and little fight. This is what happened to Robertson last Saturday, unfortunately.
Digital results to date stand: 14-14-1 -.45u
Let’s Fight!
Anthony Hernandez -170 vs. Gregory Rodrigues +140*
Middleweight (185 pounds) Main Event
Tenth-ranked UFC middleweight Rodrigues appears sculpted out of marble. He is large, extremely powerful, and equipped with a diverse mixed martial arts arsenal.
Rodrigues, 10-3 in UFC competition, can be inconsistent in his approach to maintaining his UFC momentum. Every two to three fights, Rodrigues gets matched against an athlete that finds a way to upset him, whether that is Jared Cannonier or Bruno Ferreira.
Rodrigues, or ‘Robocop’ as he is called, is a decorated black belt in BJJ, and his kicks, strikes and elbows carry devastating damage upon landing.
While Rodrigues can start fights looking formidable, strong, and fresh, he often slows as an opponent remains competitive. Rodrigues is able to force his opponent to fight into the late second or third round, where his size and musclebound frame then begin to work against him.
Rodrigues strikes at a high output (5.53 significant strikes per minute), but he eats 4.78 SS/M of power strikes, so he is more than willing to trade power shots, something that his opponent, Fluffy Hernandez, will look to avoid.
Hernandez is the seventh-ranked UFC middleweight. He enters this fight off a disappointing KO loss against champion Sean Strickland. Hernandez’s SS/M is 4.57, which is impressive, especially considering his effective strike evasion for Fluffy only receives 3.10 SS/M.
Hernandez was riding momentum into that Strickland title opportunity before he was dominated by the champion in a performance that was unusual for Hernandez. He never got his attack started, let alone unleashed.
This fight is a terrific example of girth, might, power, and limited energy supply (Rodrigues) facing a fighter who will be much the slighter man physically. However, Hernandez will command the quickness, speed, footwork, and most especially cardio components of this fight.
Early on, Rodrigues will plod forward in order to ‘make’ this fight and attempt to force Hernandez to exchange, while Hernandez will look to use that large cage to contribute to his footwork and strike evasion.
Robocop can slow during fights, while Hernandez never tires and usually begins to differentiate himself from his opponent after the first round has expired, simply because his conditioning is as lethal a weapon for Fluffy as his offensive MMA weaponry.
Hernandez will use his feet to force Robocop to move and defend early in this fight. As the bout progresses and Rodrigues begins to slow Hernandez’s speed, deft footwork and volume striking should start to control this fight.
Hernandez, a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with a black belt in Marinoble’s MMA system, will need to play matador in this fight. Over time, he will sap the limited cardio from the aggressive incoming power striker Rodrigues.
Rodrigues will need to utilize the early minutes of this fight to bully, badger and physically berate Hernandez with the intention of not allowing Hernandez to breathe, let alone find his way into the later rounds. It is in those later rounds where the differences in these two fighters will be most pronounced.
I have many thoughts on this fight, so check back Friday on the ‘Bout Business Podcast for more on this main event.
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds. Under -200
* Rodrigues +140 available at DraftKings
Mason Jones -265 vs. MarQuel Mederos +225
Lightweight (155 pounds)
This may be one of the most entertaining fights of the summer.
Jones travels in from Wales to take this fight against Mederos, who lives and trains in Phoenix. So travel and all the periphery issues surrounding Jones arriving in Sacramento, then making weight, are a bit more complex than they are for the domestic fighter Mederos.
Jones is a simple warrior. He is big, strong, aggressive, and completely unafraid. Mason Jones ‘makes’ fights, and by that I mean he arrives, he checks in, then when the bell rings, his single point of focus is to dislodge any opponent from their consciousness.
Jones’ weaponry is comprehensive. He is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, a black belt in Judo, and he has earned a black belt in Kickboxing.
On the feet, on the floor, or against the cage, Jones sports the mixed martial arts acumen and experience to dominate any fight.
Where Jones can be challenged, however, is if he has to compete against an athlete with abundant speed, precision, strike evasion, footwork, and counterstriking.
Enter MarQuel Mederos.
Mederos has the advantage of living a few hours away from Sac-town, so travel and weight cutting on paper should be a much easier ordeal for him entering this foundational fight.
Mederos is a fluid striker who makes up for a lack of one-punch KO power by utilizing his athleticism, footwork, octagon generalship, and volume counterstriking.
Where Jones hurls bombs to destroy, Mederos uses combinations/counterstrikes to sap the steam from opponents, then transitions into volume striking and kicking to overwhelm the adversary.
Mederos’ last fight was a draw based on a point taken from him during the fight, and that does not sit well with the 11-1-1 mixed martial artist. He yearns for this fight, this opponent, and this challenge!
Once the bell rings, Mederos will need to use his fluidity of movement and counterstriking, especially early, when Jones has the most sting in his power strikes/kicks.
Mederos must manage this fight into the second round. From there, his athleticism and feet will begin to display the vast gap in expertise between these two. I do not believe Jones will be able to catch up to a fully focused Mederos once Mederos gets into this bout and gets lathered up.
Jones opened -225 in this fight, which was too high an opening number on Jones. Take the fact that that price has now escalated to Jones -280 (DraftKings), and we have what I believe is a great opportunity on the underdog here.
Mederos will need to use every bit of octagon savvy and defensive aptitude in that first round to both sap the walloper from Wales of his energy, then force him to have to fight into the later stages of what Mederos needs to be a 15-minute war.
Once and if this fight can get into the second round and beyond, the complexion will change, and we’ll see Jones go from hunter to the hunted as Mederos utilizes his feet, his counterstriking acumen, and his deft strike defense.
These two will compete on the feet. However, if we do see Jones initiate wrestling, it will be a sure sign that Mederos’ speed and counterstriking are forcing Jones off plan, which is exactly what I believe transpires late in the fight.
Mederos’ takedown defense stands at 82%, so he will welcome Jones shooting in on him, as that will create opportunity for further counter strikes, knees, and kicks.
Mederos is live.
UFC Sacramento Best Bet: MarQuel Mederos +225 .50u
UFC Sacramento Best Bet: MarQuel Mederos +3.5 pts +100 (DraftKings) 1.5u
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -180
‘Bout Business Podcast has been white hot all summer long. Friday, early afternoon, the podcast drops across all podcast platforms and on GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
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