Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 17 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

Happy Holidays to you and yours from the Tuley’s Takes home office. We’ve been enjoying family time despite the recent runs of favorites in both the NFL as well as in the CFB bowls. NFL chalk has gone 21-11 ATS (65.6%) the past two weeks and we had our second straight losing week at 2-3 ATS.

Week 16 started fine as we hit the first leg of our 2-team, 6-point teasers in our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” with the Broncos +8.5 covering in their 34-27 loss at the Chargers on Thursday Night Football, but then lost with the Texans +3.5 in a 27-19 loss at the Chiefs on Saturday. Sunday started great as the Patriots +14 jumped out to a 14-0 lead on the Bills and held on to cover in a 24-21 loss (we had to sweat a little when the Bills got up by 10 with 10:10 to play) and the Panthers +4.5 upset the Cardinals 36-30 in OT, but then we lost with the Jets +3.5 in a 19-9 loss at the Rams and Saints +14 in a 34-0 rout at the Packers on Monday Night Football.

 

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Fortunately, as we’ve been writing all season, our teasers saved us as we swept all our recommended 2-team, 6-points teasers with the Falcons -2.5, Seahawks +9 and Jaguars +7.5 joining the Broncos from Thursday night.

But enough looking back (except to learn from our mistakes). Let’s get to our takes for NFL Week 17, which starts extra early with two games on Wednesday/Christmas. Games are listed in rotation order, even though we have a few flex situations in the penultimate week of the season.

For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes columns, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also give the aforementioned “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” of 2-team, 6-point teasers and my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Wednesday, 1:00 p.m. ET

If you were wondering why we had two games last Saturday, it was so these four teams could play on Christmas Day on Wednesday (same four-day short week for teams that play on Thursday Night Football). The Chiefs are trying to hold onto the No. 1 seed in the AFC, while the Steelers are still trying to win the AFC North after losing to the Ravens. This number is too short for us to fade the Chiefs ATS again, as they usually pull out SU wins, but we’ll gladly tease the Steelers up through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to +8.5. The other Week 17 games in the so-called “teaser zone” are the Colts -2 at the Giants and Packers +7.5 at Vikings (note: I’m not as thrilled with the Saints +7 vs. the Raiders and the Titans +7 at the Jaguars as will be discussed below).

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Steelers +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Chiefs 55/45 in the rare ATS contests that will use these Wednesday games and 67/33 in SU pools).

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Houston Texans

Wednesday, 4:30 p.m. ET

As mentioned above, the Ravens have caught the Steelers for the AFC North and are certainly motivated to win here (especially if the Steelers lose the earlier game). The Texans have already clinched the AFC South but are trying to prove they belong with the top AFC teams, especially after falling short vs. the Chiefs. The advance line on this game was Ravens -3 before their win and the Texans’ loss and has climbed to 5.5 (partly due to the aforementioned motivational/non-motivational factors) as of Tuesday afternoon’s early deadline. I’m not sure I want to fade the Ravens here, but I probably won’t be able to resist if the line gets to Texans +6.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Texans 55/45 in rare ATS contests using these games, but Ravens 70/30 in SU pools).

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The advance line for this game was only Seahawks -1.5 last week. It seems overinflated at -3.5 despite the Bears getting routed 34-17 by the Lions as the Seahawks lost 27-24 to the Vikings, but I’m not willing to back the Bears at this time. Pass and wait for the weekend.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 75/25 in SU pools).

Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at New England Patriots

Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Yes, we loved the Patriots +14 at the Bills as our top play in Week 16, but that doesn’t mean we’re on them again here (we don’t believe in blindly betting teams or trends). The advance line was Chargers -6 before they beat the Broncos on TNF and the Patriots’ performance, but it re-opened Sunday at -5.5 and was down to 4.5 and even 4 at some books as of early Tuesday and that’s too short to back this New England team again.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 75/25 in SU pools).

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3/-3.5)

Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET

For newbies, the -3/-3.5 line above means that there are several books offering each of these lines as the market hasn’t settled yet (and usually charging -120 on the side you want). The Bengals are making their patented late run with three straight wins, but it’ll probably be too late. The Broncos, led by Bo Nix, have been more consistent all year, and I have them as a short favorite, so I’ll gladly take the points here. Obviously, grab the +3.5 if you can still get it, but +3 EVEN is a strong play, too.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Broncos +3.5 or +3 EVEN (pool play: Broncos 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 60/40 in SU pools).

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Don’t look now, but the Rams have a one-game lead over the Seahawks in the NFC West. It seems like yesterday that the Cardinals were in that same position, but they’ve lost four of five and have been eliminated from the playoff picture. The Rams were -3.5 on the advance line, but it’s obviously inflated now because they need the game more. However, despite the Cardinals’ slump, I love teams that won the first meeting (and they ran over the Rams 41-10 in Week 2) and are getting points in the rematch. Arizona might be my favorite play of the week.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Cardinals +6 (pool play: Cardinals 60/40 in ATS contests, but Rams still 67/33 in SU pools).

Indianapolis Colts (-8) at New York Giants

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

One of the silver linings of Week 16 was continuing to resist taking the Giants (well, there was my misstep in Week 15 at +16 vs. the Ravens, but let’s forget that). Instead, we successfully faded them with the Falcons in my “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio,” and as mentioned above, we’re doing the same here with the Colts -2 as they’re trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Colts -2 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests but at least 90/10 in SU pools).

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Jayden Daniels and the Commanders continue to impress with their come-from-behind upset of the Eagles on Sunday to solidify their spot in the NFC wild-card mix. Michael Penix Jr. didn’t have to do much (202 yards passing with no TDs) except for handing the ball to Bijan Robinson in his first NFL start as the defense scored twice, but he certainly has the right to improve here in what should be a shootout between two young QBs. This should come down to a late score, hopefully a field goal.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Falcons +4 (pool play: Falcons 60/40 in ATS contests, but Commanders still 60/40 in SU pools).

Las Vegas Raiders (-1) at New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

The best that can be said for the Raiders (4-11) is they didn’t tank against the Jaguars (though, now that I think about it, maybe the Jags just tanked harder). Anyway, they showed more effort than the Saints did in their 34-0 loss at the Packers on Monday night. That no-show is why I can’t even take the Saints in teasers despite them being favored on the advance line last week but now the line is flipping due to these teams’ most recent performances. In addition, +1 isn’t technically in the “teaser zone,” as a 6-point tease only gets +7 and a push and not a win.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Raiders 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

My comments in the Raiders-Saints game pretty much apply here, though the Titans did at least show their players are still trying to compete in their 38-30 loss at the Colts. If this line would get to Jaguars -1.5, I might add the Titans +7.5 to my “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio,” but not with all other combos.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Titans 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-11)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

I was proud to fade the Bills with the Patriots +14 on Sunday (and glad we held on), but there is some trepidation in pulling the trigger again, as they could certainly bounce back. However, despite letting me down against the Rams on Sunday, the Jets have usually been in all their games before losing in this disappointing season, and I expect Aaron Rodgers to do enough to keep within one score for most, if not all, of the game (and have a shot at the back-door cover if it comes to that).

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Jets +11 (pool play: Jets 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bills still 90/10 in SU pools).

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

I’ve found myself watching more Panthers games lately than I ever would have expected after how they started this season, but they’ve been very good to me lately (including when I faded them as chalk with the Cowboys two weeks ago) with the cover three weeks ago against the Eagles and upsetting the Cardinals on Sunday. And don’t forget that they only lost 26-23 to these same Buccaneers in Week 13 as 6.5-point home underdogs, and I see no reason why they can’t keep this within one score again.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Panthers +8 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Buccaneers still 70/30 in SU pools).

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

This game has been moved to the afternoon slot for good reason, with the Vikings (13-2) still battling the Lions for the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Packers (11-4) are obviously playing well, too, so this should be a repeat of the Vikings’ 31-29 win at Lambeau in Week 4. I can’t take the short number ATS, but the Packers are already part of my “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.”

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Packers +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play:Vikings 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

This was flexed to an early Sunday start for good reason, as the Eagles are expected to roll. However, I’m not so sure about that, as we certainly saw the Cowboys giving their best effort (and they still have a lot of talent despite being eliminated from the playoff race) in their 26-24 upset of a motivated Buccaneers team on Sunday night. The only good thing about the recent run of NFL favorites is that chalk bettors will continue to bet that way and the oddsmakers are forced to raise the lines higher and give us more room to cover. Oh, and longtime readers will recognize this as an “anti-swagger” spot for the Eagles after having their 10-game winning streak snapped by the Commanders.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Cowboys +9.5 (pool play: Cowboys 60/40 in ATS contests).

Miami Dolphins (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

The Dolphins are still alive for a wild-card spot? Apparently so. I usually love fading mediocre teams (though better since Tua Tagovailoa returned) in “must-win” situations like this, especially as the advance line was only -3 and has more than doubled; however, I’m not thrilled with what I’ve seen from the Dorian Thompson-Robinson experiment and will be following the Packers-Vikings and Cowboys-Eagles more in the late afternoon window.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 75/25 in SU pools).

Detroit Lions (-4) at San Francisco 49ers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The 49ers have obviously had a disappointing season at 6-9 and no shot at the playoffs. I would usually like to back a talent-filled team like this in a spoiler role to start momentum for a rebound next season. However, they didn’t step up in the crucial must-win game against the Rams two Thursdays ago and came up short against the Dolphins this Sunday, so I don’t see them keeping up with the Lions here.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

For more NFL Week 17 best bets, visit the NFL Week 17 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.

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