Using NFL contract incentives to handicap Week 18 odds and player props


Player contract bonuses a big motivating factor in Week 18

As bettors, we make a lot of generalizations about teams and their mindsets heading into a game, but never forget that individual players have a lot on the line every time they step on the field. They’re playing to impress decision makers, whether that means getting more playing time on their current teams or making a few extra bucks in free agency. They’re playing to get seen.

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Well, some guys are also playing for some player incentives and NFL records in Week 18. Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard did an excellent job breaking down some of the statistical benchmarks and current player prop odds for the guys in question on Thursday’s edition of Follow The Money.

Jaguars WR Christian Kirk needs two catches or 91 receiving yards for $500,000 bonuses on each. Jets DE Carl Lawson of the Jets draws a severely banged-up Dolphins offensive line and a backup QB in Skylar Thompson or a guy signed off the street in Mike Glennon and needs just one sack for a $600,000 bonus.

As Mitch and Pauly cautioned, don’t just blindly bet all of these. Justin Jefferson needs 194 yards for the NFL single-season receiving yards record, but the Vikings are a big favorite against Nathan Peterman and the Chicago Bears with a home playoff game on the horizon next week. How much do the Vikings and Jefferson push for the record at the risk of his health?

These are big Week 18 betting questions, but Mitch and Pauly shed light on an important topic and motivating factor for players and coaches that simply has to be on your radar.

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