VSiN Analytics NFL Week 1 Report

By
VSiN Staff
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2345
 

 

VSiN Analytics Report for Week 1

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of WEEK 1. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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NFL Week 1 Systems

These systems were from an article posted just a couple of weeks back on VSiN.com as well as the NFL Betting Guide Part 2:

SYSTEM #1

Divisional home underdogs are 16-7-2 SU and 21-4 ATS (84%) in Week 1 since 2009 (Win: +16.6 units, R.O.I.: 66.4%, Grade 80)

System Match (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, INDIANAPOLIS, NY GIANTS, NY JETS

 

SYSTEM #2

Divisional road underdogs of 6.5 points or less are on a 14-12 SU and 18-7-1 ATS (72%) run since 2013. (Win: +10.3 units, R.O.I.: 39.6%, Grade 70)

System Match: CAROLINA, GREEN BAY, LAS VEGAS, LA RAMS

 

SYSTEM #3

Laying big points is rarely a good idea in a Week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 10-28-1 SU, but they are 26-12-1 ATS (68.4%) in Week 1 since 2013 (Win: +12.8 units, R.O.I.: 32.8%, Grade 70)

System Match (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, ARIZONA

 

SYSTEM #4

NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 49-21-5 ATS (70%) since 2004 (Win: +25.9 units, R.O.I.: 34.5%, Grade 72)

System Match (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, LAS VEGAS, LA RAMS

 

SYSTEM #5

Opening week home favorites hosting teams that were above .500 the prior season are 48-25-5 ATS (65.8%) since ’00 (Win: +20.5 units, R.O.I.: 26.3%, Grade 60)

System Match (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY, LA CHARGERS

 

SYSTEM #6

Week 1 favorites playing in a revenge spot from a loss the prior season are just 15-22 SU and 13-24 ATS (35.1%) over the last 11 seasons (Loss: -13.4 units, R.O.I.: -36.2%, Grade 68)

System Match (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, JACKSONVILLE, CHICAGO, DENVER

 

Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the DraftKings Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the HANDLE was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.

System Match (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, JACKSONVILLE, WASHINGTON, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE, BUFFALO

 

DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of BETS. When 63%+ of the number of BETS were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports, if 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade ‘em.

It’s safe to assume that you don’t want to be part of the super majority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.

System Match (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, SAN FRANCISCO, JACKSONVILLE, WASHINGTON, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO, BUFFALO

 

DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:

DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority HANDLE bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.

System Match (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, JACKSONVILLE, ATLANTA, LAS VEGAS, CHICAGO, SEATTLE, NY GIANTS, BUFFALO

 

DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of BETS staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).

System Match (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, JACKSONVILLE, ATLANTA, LAS VEGAS, CHICAGO, SEATTLE, DALLAS, BUFFALO

 

DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority HANDLE and number of BETS was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) and 35-53 ATS (39.8%) respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.

System Match (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, SAN FRANCISCO, JACKSONVILLE, PHILADELPHIA, BUFFALO

 

DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority HANDLE and number of BETS was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager, these majority groups actually produced winning records, 26-25 ATS (51%) and 34-32 ATS (51.5%) respectively. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they win. In this case, mildly.

System Match (LEAN PLAY BOTH): LAS VEGAS, MIAMI

 

DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority HANDLE and number of BETS backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) & 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.

System Match (FADE BOTH): KANSAS CITY, BUFFALO

 

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total last year was 44.2. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of BETTORS struggled, going 28-53 ATS (34.6%). Not surprisingly, they sided with the favored team in 59 of the games.

System Match (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, CINCINNATI, MIAMI, SEATTLE, DALLAS, BUFFALO

 

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the HANDLE was on the UNDER in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of BETS produced a 23-17 record.

System Match (PLAY UNDER in ALL): HOU-BAL (o/u at 44), ARI-WAS (o/u at 38), CAR-ATL (o/u at 39.5), PHI-NE (o/u at 45), LV-DEN (o/u at 44), LAR-SEA (o/u at 46.5)

 

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #11, the magic mark for super majority on HANDLE for betting OVERS was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the OVER looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of BETS, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.

System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIAMI-LA CHARGERS (o/u at 51)

 

NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) as well as re-tread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).

 

Rookie Coach Systems (more in coming weeks)

In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Divisional games 120-132-7 ATS (47.6%), These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.

System Match: LEAN AGAINST INDIANAPOLIS

 

Rookie Coach Systems

Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in Home games – 79-115 ATS (40.7%).

System Match: FADE DENVER

 

Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites since 2013. They’ve gone 86-63 SU but just 49-89-11 ATS, for 35.5%!

System Match: FADE DENVER

 

Digging deeper into the two trends described just above, as HOME FAVORITES, re-tread coaches have gone just 55-38 SU and 29-59-5 ATS (33%) in their first seasons over the last decade.

System Match: FADE DENVER

 

Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start VERY slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 89-133-5 ATS (40.1%)

System Match: FADE DENVER

 

NFL rookie quarterback systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2023 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward

Earlier, I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 144-268-2 SU (34.9%) and 190-222-2 ATS (46.1%).

System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+10 at Baltimore), FADE CAROLINA (+3.5 at Atlanta), FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+5 vs. Jacksonville)

 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #3 – Rookie quarterbacks have gotten off to very slow starts of late

As part of their overall recent struggles, rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early season starters, going 1-15-1 SU and 4-13 ATS (23.5%) in their last 17 Week 1-3 games. They are also on a 20-5 UNDER the total run in their last 25 such contests.

System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+10 at Baltimore), FADE CAROLINA (+3.5 at Atlanta), FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+5 vs. Jacksonville)

ALSO: PLAY UNDER IN THESE 3 GAMES

 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season

The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 100-105 ATS (48.8%) in home games but just 90-112 ATS (44.5%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-18, they are just 27-80 SU & 42-63-2 ATS (40%).

System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+10 at Baltimore), FADE CAROLINA (+3.5 at Atlanta)

 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks

Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 7 points or more have won just 25 games, going 25-157 SU & 74-99-9 ATS (42.8%).

System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+10 at Baltimore)

 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tough for rookie starting quarterbacks

The breakdown of success level against Division, Conference, and Non-Conference opponents has been definitive for rookie starting quarterbacks. Since the start of the 2013 season, versus non-divisional conference and non-conference opponents, they are about 49% ATS, however, against divisional foes, they are just 62-84 ATS (42.5%). As divisional dogs of 5 points or more, rookie QBs are just 6-61 SU and 24-42-1 ATS (36.4%) in that span.

System Match: LEAN FADE CAROLINA (+3.5 at Atlanta), MORE FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+5 vs. Jacksonville)

 

TNF, SNF and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday NIGHT games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played ON SUNDAY NIGHT, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 25-21 SU and 29-16-1 ATS (64.4%) in the last 46.

System Match: PLAY DETROIT

 

There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 16-14 SU but 8-21-1 ATS (27.6%). However, home-field advantage has picked up slightly in the second half of the season in recent years, with week 9-17 home teams going 14-17 SU & 15-18 ATS (75%) in that same time span. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 30-23 SU & 31-20-2 ATS (60.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.

System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY ATS

 

More on totals, there have been 29 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater. They went UNDER at a 21-8 rate (72.4%).

System Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u at 52)

 

Good TNF Team Trends

Kansas City 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four

System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY

 

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 15-15 SU and 19-9-2 ATS (67.9%) dating back to 2017.

System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS ATS

 

Home-field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning a 17-10 SU and 16-10-1 ATS (61.5%) record since 2019.

System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS

 

UNDER the total SNF Team Trends

DALLAS 13-5 UNDER since ‘16

NY GIANTS seven straight UNDERS, scoring 11.6 PPG

Systems Match: PLAY UNDER in DAL-NYG

 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 7-6 SU & 9-4 ATS (69.2%) dating back to September ’21. The last 11 of these games have seen UNDER the total go 10-0-1 (100%) as well, games producing just 32.4 PPG.

System Match: LEAN NY JETS ATS, PLAY UNDER (o/u at 46.5)

 

Home teams have enjoyed little advantage in divisional MNF games of late, going 14-13 SU & 9-17-1 ATS (34.6%) in their last 27 tries.

System Match: FADE NY JETS ATS

 

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going OVER or UNDER regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

 

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends

Buffalo 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS primetime run

System Match: PLAY BUFFALO

 

Dallas 8-2 ATS in the last 10

System Match: PLAY DALLAS

 

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF and MNF) Team Trends

NY Jets eight straight losses while going 1-7 ATS

System Match: FADE NY JETS

 

This week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen Power Ratings projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. CAROLINA +3.5 (+1.5), 2. LAS VEGAS +4 (+1.1), 3. LA RAMS +5.5 (+1.0), 4. MIAMI +3 (+0.8), 5. NY JETS +2.5 (+0.6)

 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. KANSAS CITY -4.5 (+1.8), 2. CINCINNATI -2.5 (+1.5), 3(tie). WASHINGTON -7 (+0.7) and DALLAS -3 (+0.7), 5. BALTIMORE -10 (+0.6)

 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANAPOLIS +5 (+2.9), 2(tie). MIAMI +3 (+2.0) and PITTSBURGH +2.5 (+2.0) and HOUSTON +10 (+2.0), 5. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+1.7)

 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -3 (+2.0), 2. CHICAGO -1 (+1.7), 3(tie). KANSAS CITY -4.5 (+0.9) and BUFFALO -2.5 (+0.9), 5. PHILADELPHIA -4 (+0.7)

 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. CAR-ATL OVER 39.5 (+2.7), 2. JAX-IND OVER 45 (+1.2), 3. TB-MIN OVER 45.5 (+1.1), 4(tie). DAL-NYG OVER 46.5 (+0.5) and GB-CHI OVER 42.5 (+0.5) and HOU-BAL OVER 44 (+0.5)

 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. CIN-CLE UNDER 47.5 (-2.0), 2. TEN-NO UNDER 41 (-1.6), 3. LAR-SEA UNDER 46.5 (-0.6), 4(tie). BUF-NYJ UNDER 46.5 (-0.3) and MIA-LAC UNDER 51 (-0.3)

 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANAPOLIS +5 (+4.2), 2. NY JETS +2.5 (+1.8), 3. MIAMI +3 (+1.6), 4. LA RAMS +5.5 (+1.4), 5. TAMPA BAY +6 (+1.3)

 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. KANSAS CITY -4.5 (+3.0), 2. WASHINGTON -7 (+1.4), 3(tie). CINCINNATI -2.5 (+1.3) and NEW ORLEANS -3 (+1.3), 5. SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 (+1.0)

 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. CAR-ATL OVER 39.5 (+2.9), 2. PHI-NE OVER 45 (+1.5), 3(tie). SF-PIT OVER 41 (+0.7) and TB-MIN OVER 45.5 (+0.7), 5. GB-CHI OVER 42.5 (+0.4)

 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-LAC UNDER 51 (-2.1), 2. CIN-CLE UNDER 47.5 (-1.8), 3. LAR-SEA UNDER 46.5 (-1.6), 4. ARI-WAS UNDER 38 (-1.4), 5. JAX-IND UNDER 45 (-1.2)

 

Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends

Here are 19 top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:

* Jared Goff (DET) is 12-18 SU but 21-9 ATS (70%) with current HC Dan Campbell. The average line was +4.8, Team average PF: 22.7

System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS (+5 at Kansas City)

 

* Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS (86%) as a home underdog. The average line was +2.6, Team average PF: 27.6

System Match: PLAY NY JETS (+2.5 vs Buffalo)

 

* Dak Prescott (DAL) is 26-7 SU & 23-10 ATS (69.7%) in divisional games. The average line was -3.7, Team average PF: 28.1

System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-3 at New York Giants)

 

* Derek Carr (NO) is 27-20 SU & 16-29 ATS (35.6%) as a Favorite. The average line was -3.9, Team average PF: 23.5

System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS ATS (-3 vs Tennessee)

 

* Justin Fields (CHI) is 4-16 SU & 6-14 ATS (30%) in Sunday games. The average line was +4.8, Team average PF: 19.2

System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-1 vs. Green Bay)

 

* Mac Jones (NE) is 0-8 SU & ATS (0%) as an underdog of 7 points or less. The average line was +2.8, Team average PF: 18.1

System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+4 vs Philadelphia)

 

Top NFL Team Situational Trends

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* ARIZONA is 21-14 ATS (60%) in road/neutral games since 2019

* ARIZONA is 13-8 ATS (62%) as an underdog since 2021

System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+7 at Washington)

 

* ATLANTA is 14-25 ATS (36%) at home since 2018

* ATLANTA is 28-46 ATS (38%) as a favorite since 2014

System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-3.5 vs Carolina)

 

* BALTIMORE is 37-50 ATS (43%) as a favorite since 2015

System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-10 vs Houston)

 

* BUFFALO is 22-13 ATS (63%) in road/neutral games since 2019

System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-2.5 at NY Jets)

 

* CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS (25%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019

System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-1 vs Green Bay)

 

* CINCINNATI is 46-24 ATS (66%) in road/neutral games since 2015

System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-2.5 at Cleveland)

 

* CLEVELAND is 23-38 ATS (38%) at home since 2015

* CLEVELAND is 16-32 ATS (33%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015

System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs Cincinnati)

 

* DALLAS is 27-15 ATS (64%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016

* DALLAS is 13-6 ATS (68%) in road/neutral games since 2021

System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-3 at NY Giants)

 

* DENVER is 14-28 ATS (33%) as a favorite since 2017

* DENVER is 82-49 UNDER the total (63%) since 2015

System Match: FADE DENVER (-4 vs Las Vegas), PLAY UNDER in LV-DEN (o/u at 44)

 

* DETROIT is 23-10 ATS (70%) overall since 2021

System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+4.5 at Kansas City)

 

* GREEN BAY is 16-8 ATS (67%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019

* GREEN BAY is 13-5 ATS (72%) as an underdog since 2019

System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+1 at Chicago)

 

* JACKSONVILLE is 11-22 ATS (33%) as a favorite since 2018

* JACKSONVILLE is 22-13 UNDER the total (63%) since 2021

System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-5 at Indianapolis), PLAY UNDER in JAX-IND (o/u at 45)

 

* KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (80%) vs. non-conference foes since 2021

System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-4.5 vs Detroit)

 

* LA CHARGERS are 29-42 ATS (41%) at home since 2014

System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS (-3 vs Miami)

 

* LA RAMS are 33-22 UNDER the total (60%) since 2020

System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAR-SEA (o/u at 46.5)

 

* LAS VEGAS is 19-11 ATS (63%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018

* LAS VEGAS is 28-42 ATS (40%) in road/neutral games since 2015

System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS

 

* MIAMI is 47-30 ATS (61%) as an underdog since 2014

System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+3 at LA Chargers)

 

* MINNESOTA is 10-16 ATS (38%) at home since 2020

* MINNESOTA is 43-25 OVER the total (63%) since 2019

System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-6 vs. Tampa Bay), PLAY OVER in TB-MIN (o/u at 45.5)

 

* NEW ENGLAND is 5-10 ATS (33%) as an underdog since 2021

System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+4 vs Philadelphia)

 

* NEW ORLEANS is 18-31 ATS (37%) at home since 2017

System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-3 vs. Tennessee)

 

* NY GIANTS are 33-16 UNDER the total (67%) since 2020

System Match: PLAY UNDER in DAL-NYG (o/u at 46.5)

 

* NY JETS are 15-27 ATS (36%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016

System Match: FADE NY JETS (+2.5 vs Buffalo)

 

* PHILADELPHIA is 12-23 ATS (34%) in road/neutral games since 2019

System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-4 at New England)

 

* PITTSBURGH is 81-55 UNDER the total (60%) since 2015

* PITTSBURGH is 24-12 ATS (67%) as an underdog since 2018

System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+2.5 vs. San Francisco), PLAY UNDER in SF-PIT (o/u at 41.5)

 

* SAN FRANCISCO is 15-22 ATS (41%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014

System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 at Pittsburgh)

 

* WASHINGTON is 31-18 UNDER the total (63%) since 2020

System Match: PLAY UNDER in ARI-WAS (o/u at 38)

 

Top NFL Head-to-Head Series Trends

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

9/7/23

(451) DETROIT at (452) KANSAS CITY

The last seven games in DET-KC head-to-head series went OVER the total

System Match: PLAY OVER (o/u at 52)

 

9/10/23

(467) ARIZONA at (468) WASHINGTON

FAVORITES are on 4-1 ATS run in ARI-WAS h2h series

System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON -7

 

(453) CAROLINA at (454) ATLANTA

UNDERDOGs are on 6-0 ATS streak in CAR-ATL rivalry

System Match: PLAY CAROLINA +3.5

 

(457) CINCINNATI at (458) CLEVELAND

CINCINNATI is 7-2 ATS in the last nine at Cleveland but lost last year

System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI -2.5

 

(479) DALLAS at (480) NY GIANTS

DALLAS is on 5-1 ATS run at NY Giants

System Match: PLAY DALLAS -3

 

(469) GREEN BAY at (470) CHICAGO

GREEN BAY has won the last eight ATS vs. Chicago

System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY +1

 

(455) HOUSTON at (456) BALTIMORE

All six prior HOU-BAL matchups in Baltimore went UNDER the total

System Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u at 44)

 

(459) JACKSONVILLE at (460) INDIANAPOLIS

HOME TEAMS are on 8-2-1 ATS run in JAC-IND head-to-head rivalry

System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS +5

 

(477) LA RAMS at (478) SEATTLE

LA RAMS are 8-1 ATS in the last nine vs. Seattle

System Match: PLAY LA RAMS +5.5

 

(471) LAS VEGAS at (472) DENVER

UNDERDOGS have won the last five ATS of LV-DEN series in Denver

System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS +4

 

(473) MIAMI at (474) LA CHARGERS

UNDER the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of MIA-LAC series at Chargers

System Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u at 51)

 

(475) PHILADELPHIA at (476) NEW ENGLAND

ROAD TEAMS have won the last five non-neutral PHI-NE matchups ATS

System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA -4

 

(461) TAMPA BAY at (462) MINNESOTA

TAMPA BAY is 7-2 ATS vs. Minnesota since 2001

System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY +6

 

(463) TENNESSEE at (464) NEW ORLEANS

ROAD TEAMS have won the last five ATS in TEN-NO matchups

System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE +3

 

9/11/23

(481) BUFFALO at (482) NY JETS

UNDERDOGS are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of BUF-NYJ series at New York

System Match: PLAY NY JETS +2.5

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