NFL Week 10 best bets and betting odds
Each week in the NFL provides some sort of betting challenge. This week, the challenge seems to be figuring out who you can trust. There are a lot of closely-lined games where they are priced that way because of inconsistency from one or both teams or because a backup or third-string QB will be taking the field.
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We’ve got a lot of games where injuries at other positions are going to have a huge impact as well. It’s just that time of the season in a violent, physical game. Filtering through all the stats and news is the only thing you can do in hopes of making the best wagering decisions possible.
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Here are my favorite Week 9 NFL picks:
(Odds as of November 9, 12:00 p.m. PT)
San Francisco 49ers (-3, 45) at Jacksonville Jaguars
A lot of people seem to be assuming that the 49ers will come back from the bye and look like the team that they’re supposed to. Deebo Samuel is ready to return, Christian McCaffrey has had a week off, and Brock Purdy is further removed from his concussion. Maybe those things will all help, but the 49ers draw the third-ranked defense in the NFL by EPA/play in the Jaguars, who rank fourth in Dropback EPA and 12th in Rush EPA defense.
Where I would expect the 49ers to really improve is on defense. With Chase Young now in the mix and with extra time to get acclimated after his Trade Deadline acquisition, the 49ers should find their magic again in terms of getting after the quarterback. The Jaguars are only 25th in third-down success rate and have only scored 10 touchdowns on 21 red-zone trips.
While the Jags are fifth in Dropback Success Rate, they are just 13th in Dropback EPA and just 21st in EPA/play as a whole. During this five-game winning streak, they’ve beaten Atlanta, Buffalo, Indy, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh, so there are some decent teams in the bunch, but nobody who looks like San Francisco on paper.
I think this will be a lower-scoring game with 49ers DC Steve Wilks down on the sideline and a Jacksonville defense that is underrated in my estimation.
Pick: Under 45 (would play to 44)
New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders (PK, 37)
The Raiders looked like a completely different team last week, as they enjoyed some victory cigars and shined during their first game without Josh McDaniels. Davante Adams has been very clear about his dislike of McDaniels and the news cycle has focused a lot on what has been coming out since his firing. Meanwhile, the team was happy to go out there and fight for interim head coach Antonio Pierce, who has rallied the roster.
Statistically, it wasn’t the most impressive game, but the Raiders put the game on ice in the second half after taking a 24-0 lead into the intermission. They had three touchdown drives of 60+ yards and just tried to get out of there with a win in the second half. Maybe the Giants adjusted, but it felt like the Raiders knew the game was over.
They may have to play a full 60 this week with the Jets in town, but the Zach Wilson questions are back and it is a short week with long travel. The Jets defense is undoubtedly solid and ranks seventh in EPA/play, but they have the worst offense in the league by several metrics, including EPA/play, third-down success rate (22.1%), red-zone touchdown percentage (23.8%), and rank 30th in yards per play (4.6).
Maybe it’s a really square pick here, but the Raiders may at least be trending upward and I can’t say the same about the Jets.
Pick: Raiders PK (would play to -1.5)
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