Week 12 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

A dismal 3-6 record highlighted by some awful, brutal selections in Week 11 drops my season record to 45-50-2 ATS (47.3%), the worst I’ve been in several NFL years. It’s been a tough four-week stretch for me so I wouldn’t blame you if you take my Week 12 selections with a grain of salt. I’m confident I’ll be back to going strong again at some point. Hopefully, this is the week. On the surface, it looks like a big week for home underdogs to prove some worth, and I do have a couple of those games highlighted. With that in mind, let’s see what I have come up with for Week 12 NFL best bets after pouring through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report.

 

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Pittsburgh at Cleveland

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (AMAZON)

I could see where bettors might think this is a potential trap game or a letdown spot for Pittsburgh, having come off the upset of the Ravens last week. However, these are pretty fierce rivals going at it, and that usually helps teams avoid looking ahead. It is also a matchup of two clearly different level teams. Besides the obvious differences in won-lost records, Pittsburgh has an effective strength rating of 5.4 compared to -10.0 for the Browns. In other words, the Steelers are performing at a level 15.4 points better per game, and that leaves a lot to make up for, regardless of the home field and whatever weather is dished out. 

Typically, this would be a spot I would give serious consideration to a home dog lay, but I just think head coach Mike Tomlin’s team has too much momentum going for it. Speaking of which, NFL teams that have won their last five games outright or more have gone 51-12 SU and 40-21-2 ATS (65.6%) since 2003 as road favorites against divisional opponents. Plus, home underdogs on TNF have struggled, going 5-20 SU and 8-17 ATS (32%) in their last 25, scoring just 15.3 PPG. In addition, a long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 19-17 SU but 14-22 ATS (38.9%) since the start of the 2019 season. 

Finally, unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 25-32 SU and 20-36-1 ATS (35.7%). Perhaps if this were on a Sunday, I’d give Cleveland a better chance, but with potential weather concerns, I don’t see the Browns producing much offensively.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Pittsburgh -3.5 at Cleveland on TNF

Kansas City at Carolina

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Kansas City comes off its first loss and has a tricky spot to deal with here as a double-digit road favorite against a Carolina team that seems to be improving after winning their two games prior to their bye week. That said, the wins were over the Saints, who were a train wreck at the time, and the Giants, who were vastly overpriced in Germany. Do I think the Chiefs will look past this one? Absolutely not, and I have several things suggesting the “unfamiliarity” of this matchup will benefit them. 

First, Kansas City’’s head coach Andy Reid is on a 14-3 SU and 12-4 ATS surge in non-conference games. Second, Carolina’s Bryce Young is 4-17 SU and 7-13 ATS in the last 20 starts as an underdog, and his team is on a 1-12 SU and ATS slide vs. elite teams with PPG differentials >=+4.5. With Reid’s team having lost four straight ATS now, this system will be in play: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 20-26 SU but 28-16-2 ATS (63.6%) in their last 46 games versus non-conference foes. 

There is also the issue of the Panthers coming out of the bye week as a dog to an AFC team at home. 1) Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 23-19 SU and 27-13-2 ATS since 2015) 2) Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 40-18 SU and 33-23-2 ATS since 1999, 58.9%). Now that a loss is out of the way, it’s time for KC to get it back together, and Carolina is the perfect opponent to do that against.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: I’ll lay the 11-points with the Chiefs

Dallas at Washington

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Yes, I know, I keep backing Dallas, but the way the Cowboys are playing is typical of NFL teams that have been historically profitable to back. This might be the time they get it done for bettors, as they are a divisional double-digit dog and coming off what was a reasonable offensive performance. Case in point, NFL teams that have lost the last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 26-50 SU but 49-26-1 ATS (65.3%) since 2007. 

In addition, NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 11-64 SU and 48-26-1 ATS (64.9%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006. Their problems of late have been numerous, and many of them mental, with turnovers and penalties. They are capable of giving the Commanders a game here though, and Dallas is on a 5-1 ATS surge versus Washington. Of course, the money at DraftKings is all over head coach Dan Quinn’s team, but in NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). 

Washington has some of its own concerns here, and I’m not convinced they are worthy of double-digit favorite action after playing the last four games to a 90-91 scoring differential. The Commanders are also just 15-29 ATS (34.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017, and rookie QBs like Jayden Daniels are just 43-97 SU and 58-78-4 ATS (42.6%) versus divisional opponents since 2015.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: I’m going to back Dallas +10.5 here

Tampa Bay at NY Giants

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

This stood out to me as the analytical game of the week, as there were trends and systems all over the VSiN Analytics Report screaming about this Giants-Bucs matchup. So many that I actually have two opinions on it, one on the side and the other on the total. From a betting splits perspective, the money as of Thursday at DraftKings was backing the Bucs (81%) and the Under (63%). We know that over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%).

Since mid-2023, majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! Also, when 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). Looking at the team trends, these were some of my favorites:

– TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is just 4-12 SU and 3-12 ATS when his team plays with extra rest (>7 days) since 2017

– TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is on 12-2 Under the total run as the road favorite

– NY GIANTS are 11-7 SU and 14-3 ATS when coming off an upset loss since 2012

– NY GIANTS are 22-4 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020

The Giants went into their bye week struggling but have chosen to go with Tommy Devito in place of DanielsJones at QB. It could give them a lift once again. In general, NFL teams that have lost the last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 26-50 SU but 49-26-1 ATS (65.3%) since 2007. Let’s not forget the Bucs also lost three straight prior to their bye week, NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 56-37 SU but 34-55-4 ATS (38.2%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013. 

Speaking of that bye, Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 23-11 SU and 24-10 ATS since 2019) And one of the most simple post-bye systems: Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 37-16 since ‘21, 69.8%). 

As I said, there was a lot, but if you still need more, the Giants boast a 9-3 SU (6-6 ATS) record in their last 12 post-bye week home games, while the Buccaneers are on a 0-4 SU and ATS run in post-bye week road games, as well as 4-0 Under the total in their last four post-bye week games overall. The trends and the logic both suggest this will be a tight, lower-scoring affair in New York on Sunday.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go NY Giants +6 and UNDER 41 in the matchup with Tampa Bay

New England at Miami

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Is Miami finally starting to get going? It sure feels like it, and the Dolphins come off back-to-back wins and their first game of the season topping the 30-point mark. Is it too late at 4-6 to make a serious run at the playoffs? It could be, but another win or two in a row would greatly change that perspective. Head coach Mike McDaniel’s team is in a favorable spot here, as Miami is on a 9-2-1 ATS run hosting New England and 29-16 SU and 29-15 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019. 

QB Tua Tagovailoa also has some nice trends to consider for this matchup. First, he is on a 12-4 SU and ATS surge with his team coming off a home win, and he is 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022. On the other sideline, the rookie head coach/quarterback duo of Jerod Mayo/Drake Maye has been a little better than anyone might have expected, but they also find themselves in a tough spot here, as rookie head coaches have struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 28-45 SU and 34-38-1 ATS (47.2%) in the follow-up contest. 

And for as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in Weeks 10-15, as they are just 98-150 SU and 105-133-10 ATS (44.1%) in that time span. In later season road games, Week 10-EOY, they are just 33-96 SU and 54-73-2 ATS (42.5%). A little more on the rematch angle of this game, with Miami having won 15-10 in Foxboro in October, Miami is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 rematch games, including 7-2 in the last nine. And on the list of worst NFL road rematch teams lately, you’ll find New England with a surprising 5-13 SU and 4-14 ATS record in their last 18 road tries.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: I’ll back Miami (-7.5) to continue its mid-season surge

Denver at Las Vegas

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

I mentioned that I would be highlighting a few of the home underdog games, and this one might be my favorite of them, as it looks ripe for a Denver letdown after squaring off with first-place teams in each of their last three games. You might not know it either, but the Raiders have won their last eight ATS hosting Denver. Las Vegas is also 24-14 ATS (63.2%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018. 

These teams did play already back at the outset of November, and the Broncos won rather easily, 34-18. Something to be concerned about there, Denver is just 5-16 SU and 8-13 ATS in their last 21 rematch tries and 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 facing a team it beat last time out. Head coach Sean Payton’s team has been on an offensive roll lately, in particular, rookie QB Bo Nix. But it is typical for rookie QBs to struggle at this time of year, and on the road versus divisional foes, as they have struggled worst in Weeks 10-15, just 98-150 SU and 105-133-10 ATS (44.1%) in that time span. In later season road games, Week 10-EOY, they are just 33-96 SU and 54-73-2 ATS (42.5%), and they are just 43-97 SU and 58-78-4 ATS (42.6%) versus divisional opponents, all since 2015.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: I like this spot for Las Vegas +6

Philadelphia at LA Rams

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

While I have struggled overall lately, it is the one spot where I seem to be consistently winning in NFL 2024 on the Sunday night games. For this week, we have a matchup of NFC playoff hopefuls, and it is a heavy public bet game at DraftKings, with 93% of the handle on Thursday backing the Eagles -2.5. We all know that bettors at DK struggle with heavy majorities, road favorites, and higher-profile stand-alone games. 

Just a couple of tidbits illustrating that: 1) Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). 2) When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) and 76-94 ATS (44.7%) respectively. The Sunday night trends all seem to be pointing to the Rams being tough here as well.

First, home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 18-21 SU and 23-14-2 ATS (62.2%) dating back to 2017. Also, with the Rams coming off the 28-22 win at New England, momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2%) in their last 35, but those coming off a win are on a current 23-5 SU and 18-10 ATS (64.3%) surge. Finally, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 16-25 SU and 17-24 ATS (41.5%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019. Philly currently allows 17.9. I expect a strong effort from a Rams team that has gotten back to full strength offensively.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Rams +2.5 on Sunday night with a good shot at an upset

Baltimore at LA Chargers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

For as much as I had the Chargers and won on Sunday night, I have to believe that head coach Jim Harbaugh was not that pleased at the pace with which the Chargers played and with how easily they gave up a huge halftime lead. They allowed the Bengals to score three second-half TDs. It could have been much worse for LA, as Cincy missed multiple field goals and a few late opportunities offensively. 

That said, I expect the Chargers to get back to the business of how they have been successful this season, that being in running the ball and playing better defense. The Harbaugh Bowl is a highly intriguing MNF tilt, and I’m not surprised to see a lot of the money going towards the Over, 89% in fact as of Thursday. The magic mark for super majority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). With the Chargers getting that win last Sunday, this long-standing trend will be in place: LA Chargers are 61-29 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013. 

The MNF aspect of this game also points me to a lower scoring affair that most people would expect, as the last 24 of these MNF games featuring a home dog have seen Under the total go 18-4-2 (81.8%), games producing just 37.5 PPG. As a franchise, the Chargers are on an 11-2 Under surge on Monday nights, and the last 10 MNF games with totals of 48 or higher are 7-3 Under. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team holds opponents 7.3 points below their season effective averages. If that happens here, the Ravens get 22 points. I don’t see a result where the Chargers win by 7 or more.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 51 in the MNF Harbaugh Bowl

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