NHL best bets and expert picks
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It was a relatively quiet Wednesday night around the NHL as there was only one game played, but tonight, the league is back in full swing with 11 games across the board.
There aren’t too many matchups that stand out aside from Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar heading into Pittsburgh to try and stay undefeated as the Avalanche take on the Penguins.
Some other teams to look out for tonight are the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings and Minnesota Wild, who are all top-five offensive teams in the NHL right now.
It’s an exciting night for hockey and the perfect opportunity to get back on the winning side. Let’s take a look at tonight’s best bets.
Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins (+124, 6.5)
The Colorado Avalanche have gotten off to an unbelievable start to the 2023-24 campaign, and they’re looking to keep it rolling in Pittsburgh. The Avalanche are 6-0-0, and their offense is absolutely buzzing as they score 4.50 goals per game while generating 37.2 shots on goal, which is a league-high.
Pittsburgh hasn’t looked very solid defensively, as they’re allowing 28.83 scoring chances against per 60 minutes and allowing 3.33 goals against per game.
As a team, the Avalanche have put up 40+ shots on goal in two of their last three games, and they shouldn’t have many issues generating chances against this Penguins blue line. Arturi Lehkonen specifically has been a monster, generating shots with 11 through his last three games. Lehkonen’s number tonight is 2.5, which seems somewhat low considering that he has hit the over on that in four of his last five games.
Lehkonen has 25 shots on goal in six games this year and has only scored two goals, so he will be hungry to find the back of the net in a game where the Avalanche will need their offense to come through yet again. I like the value here on Lehkonen.
Bet: Arturi Lehkonen over 2.5 shots on goal -110 (play to -130)
Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders (-125, 6)
The Ottawa Senators have been one of the best offensive teams in the NHL through the season’s first six games. They’re coming off of a pretty bad loss on home ice to the Buffalo Sabres, who beat them 6-4 in an ugly fashion. With that said, the Senators were able to generate 38 shots on goal that game and it’s something that they’ve been doing well game in and game out thus far.
Ottawa is generating the fourth most shots on goal per game. Tonight, their opponent has struggled to limit teams from getting scoring chances and shots. In their last three games combined, the New York Islanders have surrendered 120 shots against. Their goaltenders are getting peppered.
I’m focusing on Josh Norris, who is fully back in the lineup after dealing with an injury last season. He’s looked strong in his first three games of the season, as he already has three goals and an assist on the year. Through those four games, Norris has put up 12 shots on goal and has looked more comfortable as each game goes on.
Since Norris is on the first power play unit, he gets a ton of chances at the net, and for that, I love his shot prop tonight against the Islanders.
Ottawa should be fired up after their most recent loss, and I can see Norris having a big impact on this game.
Bet: *2 units Norris over 2.5 shots on goal +110 (play to -110)
Winnipeg Jets at Detroit Red Wings (-108, 6.5)
The Detroit Red Wings had their first loss on home ice, 5-4 in overtime, in their most recent outing against the Seattle Kraken. The Red Wings are still dominant at Little Ceasars Arena, skating to a 3-0-1 record while outscoring their opponents 22-14. They have scored at least four goals in every home game this year and are the league’s best offensive team, averaging 4.86 goals per game.
The Winnipeg Jets should be a little intimidated coming into this game since they’re allowing the fourth most goals against per game (3.83), and their penalty kill is ranked 24th at 72%. If Winnipeg gets into penalty trouble, this game could get ugly.
The Red Wings have the second-best power play in the NHL, skating to a 41.4% success rate, and they have scored six goals in 16 chances on the man–advantage in their last three games. Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat are the second and third leading scorers in the NHL—Larkin with 14 points and DeBrincat with 13.
Tonight, they will face Connor Hellebuyck, who has been struggling out of the gate. Despite having a winning record of 3-2-0, Hellebuyck is skating to a .881 save percentage with a 3.38 goals against average as well as a -0.2 goals saved above expected.
The Red Wings’ offense should be able to outwill the Jets’ defense and goaltending. Detroit has looked very strong at home in their first four games in their own barn, and I like them as a home underdog tonight against Winnipeg.
Bet: *3 units Detroit Red Wings ML -108 (play to -125)
Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers (+105, 6)
The Philadelphia Flyers are coming off of a devastating loss in Las Vegas as they let a third-period lead slip away before losing in the dying seconds of the game. The Flyers have now lost back-to-back games, but tonight, they have a new test against the Minnesota Wild, who are starting to explode offensively.
As good as the Wild have been on offense, the defensive side still needs work. Minnesota is the fourth highest-scoring team right now, averaging 4.17 goals per game, but they also allow 4.17 goals against per game. Marc-Andre Fleury is the expected starter tonight for the Wild, and despite being 1-1-0 in his first two starts, he is skating to a .868 save percentage and a 3.55 goals against average.
The Philadelphia Flyers have been a pleasant surprise in the early going of the season, but they have been way better defensively than offensively. The Flyers’ power play has been absolutely horrendous, currently at a 5% success rate, which is the worst in the NHL. They haven’t converted on the man-advantage in their last four games and only scored once on a total of 20 attempts.
The Wild’s top six, especially the first line, have been on fire. The first line, which consists of Kirill Kaprizov, Ryan Hartman and Mats Zuccarello, have combined for 23 points in the team’s last five games. Hartman had a hat-trick in the team’s most recent game, while Kaprizov and Zuccarello both have two goals and six assists in their last five games.
As strong as the Flyers have been defensively, I don’t trust them enough up front to keep up with the red-hot Wild.
I think Minnesota goes into Philadelphia and steals a win.
Bet: Minnesota Wild ML -125 (play to -140)
2023-24 record: 19-21-0 (-5.00 units)
