NHL Best Bets

Love is in the air on this fine Valentine’s Day, and there will be plenty of love to go around tonight on the NHL On TNT and Spittin’ Chiclets alt-cast. For those who don’t know, the popular NHL podcast is doing a simulcast tonight with the NHL On TNT panel, and it sounds like it should be incredibly different but cool. They’ll be covering the Florida Panthers and Pittsburgh Penguins game, which is also my NHL best bet for tonight.

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Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins (+105, 6)

The Panthers are entering tonight’s contest having won six out of their last seven. The Cats have been playing some solid hockey, especially at 5-on-5. 

Not only is this Florida team strong offensively at even strength, but they’re also skating to the league’s best expected goals against at 5-on-5 (2.25 xGA/60) while generating the second-most high-danger chances per 60 minutes (12.98). The Panthers are a problem, and tonight, they’re taking on a Penguins group that is on a two-game skid. 

The Penguins’ biggest issue this season has been finding consistency. On paper, this team is a playoff team, but you never know what you’re going to get from them. 

Sidney Crosby has had an unbelievable season. He currently has 52 points in 49 games (28 goals, 24 assists). But as a collective group, the Penguins haven’t had an easy time scoring. They currently rank as the league’s 25th-best offense, only averaging 2.90 goals per game. Their power play has also been a total disaster, as it’s only converting at 13.9% — which has them at the third-worst percentage in the league. 

The one area where I will credit Pittsburgh is their goaltending. Despite not having a pretty record for the full season, Tristan Jarry is 2-1-0 in his last three starts with a 1.32 goals against average and a .951 save percentage. He should be the starter for the Penguins tonight. 

Sergei Bobrovsky will be in goal for the Panthers. He has been on the money this season, especially in his last three starts. In those games, he is 3-0-0 with a 1.30 goals against average and a .958 save percentage. He also had a shutout in his most recent game, which was against the Colorado Avalanche. 

The Panthers are playing great hockey, and both teams have been getting strong goaltending as of late. That leads me to think that Florida will skate away with a low-scoring victory. 

Bet(s): Florida Panthers ML -125 (play to -135) | Under 6 -116 (play to -125)

February Record: 5-6 (-1.88 units)

2023-24 record: 85–99 (-36.66 units)

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