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NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Monday, November 28th
Recap: Sunday’s best bet on the Winnipeg Jets (-160) cashed with ease (7-2).
Monday: There are six games scheduled for Monday, but there aren’t a lot of attractive betting opportunities.
Monday’s Bets: There are no bets currently.
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Wins: 34
Losses: 37
Units Won: -3.49 units
ROI: -7.4 percent
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-160) at Detroit Red Wings (+140)
The Red Wings are a hard team to figure out, but one thing is for certain: Ville Husso is the team’s best goaltender. Husso has saved the team about five goals above expected in 14 games, which ranks 10th among goaltenders with at least ten games played. He’s outperformed Alex Nedeljkovic, who ranks third-last in goals saved above expected. Finding out which goaltender will start for the Red Wings in Detroit on Monday is the biggest factor for handicappers.
Detroit ranked 24th in expected goals against in October but ranked as the second-best team in that category in November. Now, the Red Wings have had an easy schedule, so read into that what you will, but the team is trending in the right direction and the gap between the two teams doesn’t look as big as expected. Matt Murray has been good this season, albeit in a small sample, but I would still consider betting on the Red Wings at +140 if Husso gets the start.
Some shops have already moved to +135 or worse, though, and who knows if the odds will be in range by the time the team makes an announcement. The Maple Leafs are dealing with a lot of injuries to their blue line right now, and my NHL betting model suggests that Detroit should be priced around +133 if Husso and Murray are the starting goaltenders.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-170) at Buffalo Sabres (+150)
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been playing great hockey as of late, winning five of their last six, while the Buffalo Sabres have settled into being a sub-par hockey team. That means this game shouldn’t be close, however, with the Lightning scheduled to play the Boston Bruins on Tuesday, there’s a good chance that backup goaltender Brian Elliott will start. The 37-year-old is a big downgrade from starter Andrei Vasilevskiy, but he has won four out of five of his starts, including a 5-3 win over the Sabres earlier this month.
The road will likely win the game no matter which goaltender starts, but anybody that’s interested in betting the Lightning would probably be best served by waiting until they announce who their starter goaltender will be. If Elliott gets the nod in goal, the line will almost certainly move toward the Sabres, and rightfully so. The Sabres should be priced around +145 if the Lightning start their backup. There’s isn’t necessarily enough value (5 cents) to pique my interest, though.
Note: Forward Anthony Cirelli is nearing a return to the Lightning lineup, but it doesn’t sound like he will play until the team returns home from the road trip.
New Jersey Devils (-110) at New York Rangers (-110)
Maybe the Devils can bring out the Rangers’ offense, which has been somewhat non-existent. New York has scored two or fewer goals in eight out of their last 12 games, while New Jersey has scored four or more goals in 11 of their last 16. The Devils grade out as the superior team right now, so the Rangers will either have to up their game or hope that goaltender Igor Shesterkin can steal a game for them. New York ranks 18th on offense in the month of November, while New Jersey has been holding down a spot in the top-three since the start of the season.
Both teams rank among the best in shot suppression, but they also grade out as two of the best teams in terms of generating shots. It doesn’t look like I’ll end up betting on a side in this game, as my NHL betting model estimates that the Rangers will win about 50 percent of the time (-103). This should be a fun, fast-paced game, though, and it’s probably worth watching whether you have action on it or not.
Vegas Golden Knights (-290) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+245)
Vegas came out with a disappointing effort on Saturday against the Canucks, so it’s no wonder the market is high on them heading into this matchup against the Blue Jackets. Columbus is missing several key players and are viewed as one of the worst teams in the league. There’s a chance they could get some reinforcements back in time for this game, though, which would improve their chances of winning.
Both teams are playing their third game in four days, and it’s unclear who will start in goal. Logan Thompson was hung out to dry by his teammates on Saturday, and head coach Bruce Cassidy might want to put him back in so that the team can make up for it. Blue Jackets’ starter, Elvis Merzlikins, is regarded as day-to-day after missing the last couple of weeks due to injury. He’s nearing a return, but he might still be a week away from returning to action. However, the big news is that star forward Johnny Gaudreau is regarded as a game-time decision.
From a betting perspective, this game isn’t all that interesting now that the line has moved so much in favor of the Golden Knights.
Florida Panthers (-110) at Edmonton Oilers (-110)
Panthers’ star forward Aleksander Barkov will miss the team’s next two games due to an illness, which is a huge blow to their chances of picking up a win in Alberta. This is the first half of a back-to-back for Florida, as they will travel to Calgary to play the Flames on Tuesday after taking on the Oilers on Monday.
Both teams rank among the bottom-10 teams on defense in the month of November, and neither team has much confidence in their highest paid goaltenders. The Oilers are in a decent position to win the game if Stuart Skinner starts in goal, but I still have the Panthers rated slightly higher, even without Barkov, and my NHL betting model implies that the home team shouldn’t be priced any higher than -110.
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