Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers (-130, 6.5)
Edmonton leads series 1-0
8 p.m. ET
In many instances, the sequel is never as good as the original, but if Game One on Wednesday of the Stanley Cup Final between the Panthers and Oilers is any indication, we are in for one heck of a rematch. The Panthers led 2-1 after the opening 20 minutes. They had won 20 consecutive playoff games when leading after one period and were 29-0 when leading after two periods before falling to the Oilers in overtime, 4-3.
Leon Draisaitl, who opened the scoring, ended the game with his third OT goal in this year’s playoffs. Draisaitl’s two goals in Game One were two more than he scored in last year’s Final versus Florida. It was also the second time in this year’s postseason that the Oilers erased a two-goal deficit to not only win the game but win it in overtime by identical 4-3 scores. If you follow me on Twitter, I hope you took advantage of my live tweet where I gave out Draisaitl (+700) for the OT winner.
Game One marked the first time in twelve games that we did not have a goal decided by two goals or more, so we did not cash on our puck line plays. I will come back in Game Two and play both teams at “plus money” to cover the (-1.5) goal spread. As I was going through the “anytime goal” props, I did notice on FanDuel that they offer separate wagers on “No Goals” by a home team (+1600) and road team players (+1500). Both those prices were better than playing Stuart Skinner (11/1) or Sergei Bobrovsky (10/1) to record a shutout. I am not going to jump on the prop play, but I wanted to make those who are considering playing either goalie to record a shutout a different and more profitable approach.
Teams coming off a loss in the playoffs have scored in the first period in the next game 59% (37-29) of the time. For their part, Florida has scored a first-period goal on the road in 10 of the 11 games away from home, but instead of playing the Panthers to score a first-period goal at (-166), I will parlay that with the Oilers to score a second-period goal at “plus money”. Edmonton scored a second-period goal in seven of their eight home games.
Florida’s Sam Bennett (+750), Carter Verhaeghe (+750), and Seth Jones (+1800) each have scored Florida’s first road goal twice in the playoffs (odds listed are for the first Panthers goal of the game). Bennett also leads the playoffs with 12 goals and has scored the last goal of the game four times. The Panthers’ Carter Verhaeghe’s 24 postseason goals over the past three seasons lead Florida in scoring and are only second to Draisaitl’s 32 goals over the same time span. The ageless wonder Corey Perry (+260) has great value playing alongside Connor McDavid on Edmonton’s top line. He is also on the number one power play. He has also scored the first Oilers goal at home twice in the playoffs.
One blocked shots prop that is on my card for tonight is Mattias Ekholm Over 1.5 blocks. Ekholm has had two blocked shots or more in eight straight games (playoffs and regular season) versus the Florida Panthers. DraftKings is offering Kasperi Kapanen and Evander Kane “hits” prop for tonight. Kapanen’s number is set at 4.5, and Kane is at 5.5. Kapanen’s hit totals have gone up since the Zach Hyman injury, with five or more hits in the last three games. Kane had nine hits in Game One of the Cup Final, but prior to that, he had five hits in five consecutive games. I am still waiting to see if DraftKings will come back with a Time on Ice prop for McDavid and Barkov for game two. With two days off between Games Two and Three, it will not surprise me if both players get increased ice time in Game Two.
Game Two Predictions:
Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals (+194) – .25 units
Florida Panthers -1.5 goals (+230) – .25 units
Florida 1st period Over ½ goal/Edmonton 2nd period Over ½ goal (+120) – .50 units
Mattias Ekholm Over 1.5 blocked shots (-130) – 1 unit
Kasperi Kapanen Over 4.5 hits (-125) – .50 units
Sam Bennett anytime goal (+230) – .25 units
Sam Bennett first Florida goal of the game (+750) – .10 units
Sam Bennett last goal of the game (+1500) – .10 units
Carter Verhaeghe anytime goal (+230) – .10 units
Corey Perry anytime goal (+260) – .10 units
Corey Perry first Oilers goal of the game (+900) – .10 units
Leon Draisaitl first Oilers goal of the game (+440) – .10 units
Connor Brown last goal of the game (+3100) – .10 units
