Colombia vs. Ghana
Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri.
Friday, July 3rd, 9:30 p.m. ET
Colombia have impressed me with their performances at the 2026 World Cup so far and I’m taking them to do so again as they meet Ghana in the Round of 32. They cashed for us when they tied 0-0 with Portugal, a result which meant they topped Group K, but it was a game they deserved to win.
We are unable to bet Néstor Lorenzo’s side Double Chance as we did against the Portuguese, and with them priced as -190 favorites, we can’t even take them on the Moneyline. However, the -1 Asian Handicap is a great way to get them onside, although we need a two- or more-goal margin of victory to cash, a win by one goal sees your stake refunded.
Not only did the Colombians top the group by collecting seven points, they produced very strong underlying metrics. Ghana’s route to the knockout stages was far less convincing and squeezed in as one of the best third-place finishers.
The Black Stars generated just 2.06 expected goals having fired off only 15 shots across three matches, the lowest across all nations in the group stage. Carlos Queiroz is a notoriously defensive coach and expect him to set his team up in the lowest of low blocks here, potentially even playing for penalties from the first whistle.
Colombia are sure to dominate the ball. They averaged 60% possession in the group stage, posting the third-highest shots per game. Their forward line of Luis Diaz, James Rodriguez and Luis Suarez are electric, ably supported by rampaging full-backs with Crystal Palace’s Daniel Munoz having scored twice already.
The South American side have only been beaten twice in their last 16 internationals, winning nine of their last 13 and cashing this ticket in seven of those victories. Ghana have only one win in their last nine, losing six of those internationals.
Colombia ticks every box in this clash, owning the edge in quality, form, chance creation and defensive solidity with Ghana likely forced to soak up pressure for long periods. The Colombians have the tools to wear them down and produce the two-goal victory needed to cash the ticket, with the safety net of a refund should they only win by one.
World Cup Best Bet: Colombia vs Ghana – Colombia -1 Asian Handicap at -113
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