Colombia vs. Ghana | 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 | Friday, July 3 | 9:30 p.m. ET | Arrowhead Stadium | Kansas City
Colombia (-190) | Draw (+310) | Ghana (+600)
Over 2.5 Goals (+125) | Under 2.5 Goals (-150)
Colombia -1.5 (+155) | Ghana +1.5 (-195)
The final game of the Round of 32 sees Colombia—the only team to top their group as non-betting favorites—face Ghana, who earned a spot in the Knockout Phase as one of the eight best third-placed teams.
Colombia topped Group K with seven points, going unbeaten through three matches under Néstor Lorenzo. Los Cafeteros beat Uzbekistan 3-1 and DR Congo 1-0 before holding Portugal to a goalless draw in Miami to clinch first place—conceding just once across the group stage.
Ghana finished third in Group L with four points under Carlos Queiroz, reaching the Knockout Phase for the first time since their 2010 quarterfinal run. A 1-0 win over Panama and a goalless draw against England proved enough to advance as one of the eight best third-placed teams despite a 2-1 loss to Croatia in their final group game.
Kickoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET Friday at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The winner advances to face Australia or Egypt in the Round of 16—a favorable draw that puts a quarterfinal place firmly within reach for whichever side comes out on top.
COLOMBIA TEAM NEWS
Colombia have no injury or suspension concerns and are expected to have a full squad available. Lorenzo is likely to revert to his preferred XI after rotating for the Portugal draw, with Sporting CP striker Luis Suárez set to return to the starting lineup after a slight knock restricted him to the bench last time out. He’ll partner Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez in the front three.
Colombia Predicted Lineup 4-3-3
Manager: Néstor Lorenzo
GK: C. Vargas
RB: D. Muñoz | CB: D. Sánchez | CB: J. Lucumí | LB: J. Mojica
CM: G. Puerta | CM: J. Lerma | CM: J. Arias
RW: J. Rodríguez | CF: L. J. Suárez | LW: L. Díaz
GHANA TEAM NEWS
Ghana’s biggest concern is an ankle knock Antoine Semenyo picked up against Croatia. The Manchester City attacker is their strongest attacking threat but has trained and is expected to start.
Lawrence Ati-Zigi started the tournament as Ghana’s No. 1 goalkeeper, but an injury in their opening match against Panama has seen him replaced by Benjamin Asare, who should continue in goal.
Ghana Predicted Lineup 4-3-3
Manager: Carlos Queiroz
GK: B. Asare
RB: M. Senaya | CB: J. A. Adjetey | CB: D. Luckassen | LB: G. Mensah
CM: T. Partey | CM: K. Sibo | CM: C. Yirenkyi
RW: K. Sulemana | CF: J. Ayew | LW: A. Semenyo
MATCH BREAKDOWN
Carlos Queiroz is an international tournament pragmatist. The 73-year-old’s stints with Iran, Colombia, Egypt and others have all followed the same blueprint—sides built to defend first and survive with deep backlines, minimal risk and goals on the counter.
Against Panama, he set up in a deep 4-4-1-1, creating 0.0 xG in the first half and didn’t register a shot on target in open play until Caleb Yirenkyi’s 95th-minute tap-in. Against England, he shifted to a 4-5-1/5-4-1 that restricted space in the center of the pitch to ground out a goalless draw.
The Black Stars came unstuck against Croatia, where Petar Sučić fired in a long-range strike on 31 minutes to open the game up before Nikola Vlašić headed home a Luka Modrić corner to win it 2-1 after Derrick Luckassen had briefly equalized.
Looking at Ghana’s attacking stats, the biggest sufferer of Queiroz-ball is Antoine Semenyo. He came into this tournament off the back of the best season of his career, scoring 21 goals and providing six assists across all competitions for Bournemouth and Manchester City while lifting the Carabao Cup and FA Cup. So far, he’s contributed just three shots totaling 0.15 xG—and I’m not even going to waste your time telling you about his assist and chance creation stats.
With us entering the Knockout Phase, the first goal is crucial against a side like Ghana, and I think Colombia have enough about them to get it. Los Cafeteros have players in the wide areas who are in much better form than any side Ghana have faced so far.
Luis Díaz has been a joy to watch on the left, registering one goal from 11 shots totaling 0.81 xG and laying on an assist for Daniel Muñoz. The Crystal Palace full-back has been electric in both his starts, scoring both of Colombia’s opening goals from just three shots worth 0.75 xG. In attacking midfield, 2014 Golden Boot winner James Rodríguez has rolled back the years. The 34-year-old has been at his creative best with 0.85 xA (expected assists), 10 key passes and one big chance created across the group stage.
Colombia were clearly the better side against Portugal and would have won if not for a heroic performance from Diogo Costa, who made six saves, before VAR ruled out Davinson Sánchez’s stoppage-time winner by a toe.
If Colombia can carry their group stage form into this game, they have more than enough to break down Queiroz-ball.
THE BET
Given how committed Queiroz is to his style, the obvious angle here is backing the Under, which DraftKings have set at 2.5 and priced at -150. With the form and quality Colombia have shown, the other obvious angle is backing them to win at -190.
To find value, I’m combining both into a Same Game Parlay of Colombia Moneyline (-190) and Under 3.5 Goals (-425) at -115. Colombia has two of the most dangerous wide players at the tournament in Díaz and Muñoz and should be able to find a breakthrough in 90 minutes.
At -115, we’re getting a good price on two likely outcomes that complement each other perfectly. Colombia advances and Queiroz-ball keeps it tight.
Pick: Same Game Parlay Colombia Moneyline (-190) and Under 3.5 Goals (-425) = -115
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