WNBA Picks
The Commissioner’s Cup is over, the Liberty are champions, and we are back to business as usual with the WNBA schedule. Tonight, we’ve got three games on the slate, featuring the Connecticut Sun hosting the Dallas Wings, the Phoenix Mercury hosting the Seattle Storm, and the Washington Mystics hosting the Atlanta Dream. Of course, we’ve got TSI projections for them all, so let’s get to it:
Connecticut Sun (+7.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 171.5
Connecticut comes into this matchup playing some of its best basketball of the season – although “best” is certainly relative. They’ve been 14 (!) points better over the last three games than their season average, while Dallas has been 11.5 (!) points worse over its last three games than their season average. So, are we due for regression on both sides, or are these teams trending opposite directions? TSI projects Dallas -8 with a total of 171.5, so the value here is gone after the line has moved towards Connecticut and the Over. I bet the Over at 169.5 but would obviously pass at this number.
Phoenix Mercury (-3.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 167.5
Phoenix has been about 4.5 points better over its last three games than its season average, but the real story here is Seattle; we’ve seen the line move two points towards the Storm due to them playing 17.5 points better over the last three games than their season average. However, I think this move is short-sighted and not taking into account that Seattle has been 10 points worse on the road than they’ve been at home, which is where those last three games were played. TSI projects Phoenix -9 with a total of 174.5, so I love Phoenix and the Over here. It’s also worth noting that Seattle has played 6 points worse against non-playoff teams, while Phoenix has had higher game grades against non-playoff teams (numbers are opponent-adjusted).
Bet: Mercury -3.5 (Play to -6)
Bet: Over 167.5 (Play to 170)
Washington Mystics (+7.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 165.5
Washington was really disappointing the last time out against Portland, where we backed them and they proceeded to go to 4 overtimes against one of the worst teams in the league. I really thought they’d turned a corner, but I was apparently wrong. They’ve now been four points worse over their last three games than their season average, while Atlanta is also trending the wrong direction – playing 13 points worse over their last three. So, which team gets back on track here? TSI projects Atlanta -5.5 with a total of 165.5, so there’s value on Washington, but do we really trust them to not continue to freefall? Atlanta has been 6.5 points worse on the road, and Washington has been 4.5 points better at home, so that’s encouraging. But, I can’t bring myself all the way there, so let’s just call Washington a value-driven lean.
Lean: Mystics +7.5
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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