England vs. DR Congo
Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Wednesday, July 1, 12 p.m. ET
England begin their knockout-stage campaign against DR Congo, a side that looked set to exit the tournament after falling 1-0 behind to Uzbekistan and showing very little going forward. They eventually turned things around to sneak through in third place, but this is a huge step up against one of the favorites to win the World Cup.
England have received plenty of criticism throughout the group stage, and while some of it has been justified, I think a lot of it has been over the top. Defensively, they have been excellent, conceding just 1.53 expected goals across three matches. On top of that, 14 of their last 15 victories across all competitions have come to nil.
I also think this is a favorable matchup for England. DR Congo are likely to approach the game in a similar way to Ghana and Panama, sitting deep, defending in numbers and hoping to hit England on the counter. After 180 minutes against teams with that exact game plan, England finally looked to have found the right attacking combinations late on against Panama.
When DR Congo faced stronger opposition in the group stage, they struggled to keep teams out despite setting up defensively, conceding against both Colombia and Portugal. Against an England side that is historically very strong at the back, with Jordan Pickford thriving on the biggest stage and plenty of attacking quality throughout the squad, I expect the Three Lions to eventually break them down. A comfortable 2-0 or 3-0 win feels the most likely outcome.
England are my strongest play of the day. I don’t always back England at major tournaments, but when I do, it’s because I genuinely believe the matchup is there. Having followed this team closely over the years, I feel like this is one of the best spots to get behind them.
World Cup Best Bet: England Win to Nil -130
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