WNBA Picks
Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty (-2.5), O/U 175.5
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty are playing for a championship. Tonight, that clash of the titans will be for the Commissioner’s Cup, the in-season competition that rewards the championship winners with $500,000 plus charitable donations. The Liberty are 2.5-point favorites with an O/U of 175.5 in this latest iteration of what’s become the two most consistently winning teams in the W. TSI projects New York -4 with a total of 174.5; however, the big question tonight is whether 4x MVP A’ja Wilson will suit up for Vegas after leaving last game with a leg injury. We’re seeing the line move towards New York, which is seemingly indicative that the market thinks she will not go.
New York won the last matchup in Vegas between these teams, but has oddly been slightly worse (0.5 point) at home than on the road this season, while Vegas has been substantially better on the road than at home (7 points). The Aces also have the edge in terms of game grades vs playoff teams, playing about 3.5 points better against the better competition, while New York has been about 3.5 points worse against playoff teams.
From the standpoint of the Over/Under, Liberty games at home and vs playoff teams have both been under expectations for point totals, meaning when they play better competition the games tend to be lower scoring than expected, favoring the Under. For Vegas, though, they’ve tended to exceed point total expectations on the road and vs playoff teams, so it’ll be interesting to see which team controls the pace in this one. Obviously, Wilson missing would be huge for both the side and total, as she leads the league in scoring. I don’t have an official play on this one, mostly due to the uncertainty of the MVP, but I’d lean Under here, as these teams have not gone over this number a single time in their last five meetings.
Lean: Under 175.5
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